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Martin Brundle touched on a key point during the Nurburgring race - Renault have a lot more teams competitive on their tyres. So far Renault have been the fastest Michelin team every time, and Ferrari the fastest Bridgestone, other than possibly Malaysia. However, when Michelin are on top, you can expect McLaren and perhaps Button's Honda to finish ahead of Ferrari, whereas none of the other Bridgestone teams have shown any sign of being able to beat Renault, so Renault could get a 3-4 result (behind a Ferrari 1-2) even if Bridgestone have a big advantage one weekend. That might make Michael's task tougher.
Alonso finishing every race seems unlikely, but it can be done, if the team is on top of performance enough to not need to push the marginal components 100%. Alonso having a 71% chance of winning the title seems like quite a good estimate.
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