Well, finally I became "unlazy" for a moment and redid the pre-Singapore percentages. Astonishingly, they are not so different from the wrong ones I did days ago; a complete serendipity.
Before Singapore:
Alonso 93.0%
Hamilton 4.1%
Vettel 1.5%
Raikkonen 0.8%
Webber 0.6%
It's puzzling how far were Vettel and Raikkonen from Hamilton having just two and one point less, and how close Webber and Raikkonen with a gap of ten points. The "mystery" of the combinatory and the different pattern of results among drivers. At the end, it's not just points, it is also the kind of results gotten.
So, Aysedasi is right, Vettel and Hamilton essentially have changed seat in the chase of Alonso.
Just for sake of curiosity, here go the probability of being runner-up in the WDC (before Singapore):
Hamilton 31.7%
Raikkonen 25.7%
Vettel 25.6%
Webber 11.2%
Alonso 5.9%
I don't know if Lewis would be happy knowing he was the favorite for 2nd place. I think not much. Alonso had ~99% of getting 1st or 2nd in the WDC. Webber only had 12% of being 1st or 2nd. Not really so bad for a "servant" of Vettel
. Remember that this is before Singapore.
Probably Button has some chances to be runner-up, but I have not included him in the calculations (laziness). Sorry, Michibata-san.