Predictions Strategy - hope or expectation

[Kicking-back]

Just been looking at some of the entries for the predictions competition from the first three races - and certain users have interesting trends about who they pick for good results.

Some stick with "favourite drivers", some go with the results at the last race, some go random.

So - do you pick the result you expect WILL happen - or the result you WANT to happen?

[Dani Filth]

hope always hope ..

[Vicki]

Well, so far it's been guesswork being as we've only had the first three races, but I'm hopefully going to pick up on trends and go from there. Oh, and a little hope never hurts either.

[f1_carzy]

For me, it has been a mix of both, but a bit of bias in hoping for a Ferrari 1-2..but after Imola, I am going to follow the trend. If Ferrai are not on the podium at Imola, guess they are not going to be WCC or WDC, so got to start being predicting sensibly

[fast95pony]

Mainly on the previous races,but also a bit on media reports prior to the race.

[steve_r]

Last year was easier to predict. Always predict on Expectation rather than hope.

[ASCII Man]

I just do a random list, with my favourite in a reasonable position...

[Kidzer]

I'm just doing it randomly until I can find some trends in the finishing order, then it will be more calculated

[JohnSSC]

A dartboard seems to work just fine for me, and it has great appeal to my naturally lazy intellect!

The results speak for themselves!

[rameire]

Random really,
its all a load of guess work.
the retirements I have chosen though were all what I was hoping for, well mostly.
Come on Jordan, Oh I hope they win some sort of thing this year, be it fancy dress, most vibrant colour of car, or even a race or two.

[Chaynes321]

< i usually think about who i choose ... expectation

[Don K]

I always send in a prediction purely based on historic data.
So I start up my excel workbook, go to the results sheet, add the results for the previous race, go to the teams sheet, refresh 2 pivot tables, go to the drivers sheet, refresh 2 pivot tables, go to the predictions sheet, and copy and paste into ten-tenths.
(I made that document at a computer on which macro's didn't work).
Usually it brings me something like p3 at the end of the year.

I use the same system for the championship predicions at the start of the season.
Usually that brings me a top-3 position.

(I did not enter the competition this year).

[luke]

The first race was how I thought it would be, but didn't turn out right. Malaysia, I judged he results from Melbourne, and put them out how they would have hapened if other guys hadn't of had problems.
Then Bahrain, was a similar situation.

[garcon]

Hope, based on increasingly little. Or probabilities based on last season. Kinda depends how you look at it...

[Dog Faced Boy]

Expectation and gut feeling with a little bit of bum love for Button thrown in.

[Knowlesy]

I always pick what I think won't happen, rather than what I think will happen.

It has been moderately successful so far.

The amount of Button victories I predicted last year must have ran into the thousands! This policy had to change.

[senna12]

Originally Posted by Dog Faced Boy

with a little bit of bum love for Button thrown in.

Not that there's anything wrong with that!

Normally it's by expectation, which can hurt early in the season, as Toyota and Red Bull have aptly demonstrated so far.

[luke]

Comming to think of it, I've never predicted Schui to win, since I joined, and It's and happened, once, so I've done allright.

[T0MAT01]

Originally Posted by Kicking-back

So - do you pick the result you expect WILL happen - or the result you WANT to happen?

A little bit of both I think. Hard not to put your favorite driver in there somewhere, a point highlighted so far by the JV fans!

[ralf fan]

Kb i thought you were better than this.... Copying other people's strategies will get you no where..

[Silk Cut Jaguar]

I tend to go with result I think will happen, which is generally a pretty poor decision.

[Pitstop]

My favourite method is to use a pin and a list. Close eyes stick pin in list, write out list, ignor list and then post predictions based on performance and expectations.

It rarely works, but it keeps me happy. Always difficult at the beginning of the season to predict anything, but it's fun.

I use to use the crystal ball method This no longer works since I threw it at the door in the middle of last season and it's gone a funny colour now.

Oh! well, back to the drawing board, now where did I put it................mumble mumble mumble.............

[Knowlesy]

Originally Posted by Pitstop

................mumble mumble mumble.............

Kimi? Is that you?

[Pitstop]

Originally Posted by knowlesy

Kimi? Is that you?

I don't know! I've forgotten.......

[DannyG]

I looked at testing and history to base my predictions. Toyota, redbull and Ferrari have caught me out and i expected Maclaren to do better.
Ill be going with the results of the last 3 races to predict my next race, possibly putting a ferrari up there with them