Probability of Win (?)

[Schummy]

Using points for very good grid and race positions, one gets a reasonable estimation of the Probability of Win (in a future race) of every rider. It, in turn, gives an approx about the level of performance of the rider, i.e. an alternative classification.

Mo3   Q  A  A  S  F  I  C  N   
MIL  4  6  2  2  5  1  0  2 = 22  31%
MAR  3  0  2  0  0  0  6  5 = 16  22%
FEN  0  2  4  4  0  4  0  0 = 14  19%
RIN  2  0  0  0  2  2  0  2 =  8  11%
VAZ  0  1  1  2  2  0  0  0 =  6   8%
BAS  0  0  0  0  0  0  3  0 =  3   4%
VIN  0  0  0  0  0  2  0  0 =  2   3%
ANT  0  0  0  1  0  0  0  0 =  1   1%

M2   Q  A  A  S  F  I  C  N 
RAB  6  4  6  0  1  6  6  2 = 31  43%
KAL  2  0  0  6  4  0  1  0 = 13  18%
VIN  0  4  0  0  0  0  2  2 =  8  11%
WES  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  4 =  4   6%
AGE  0  0  0  2  0  0  0  1 =  3   4%
CORT 1  0  0  1  0  0  0  0 =  2   3%
ZAR  0  1  1  0  0  0  0  0 =  2   3%
SAL  0  0  0  0  0  2  0  0 =  2   3%
CORS 0  0  0  0  2  0  0  0 =  2   3%
FOL  0  0  0  0  2  0  0  0 =  2   3%
SIM  0  0  2  0  0  0  0  0 =  2   3%
LOW  0  0  0  0  0  1  0  0 =  1   1%

MGP  Q  A  A  S  F  I  C  N
MAR  6  6  6  6  6  6  4  5 = 45  62%
ROS  2  0  0  2  2  0  2  0 =  8  11%
PED  0  3  2  0  0  0  2  0 =  7  10%
LOR  0  0  1  1  0  2  1  0 =  5   7%
DOV  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  2 =  2   3%
AESP 0  0  0  0  0  0  0  2 =  2   3%
IAN  0  0  0  0  0  1  0  0 =  1   1%
PSEP 0  0  0  0  1  0  0  0 =  1   1%
BAU  1  0  0  0  0  0  0  0 =  1   1%

Moto3: Miller is having some problems lately, after a powerful beginning. Fenati and Marquez are real threats and Rins and Vazquez are there in races too, but not exactly contenders as of now.
Probable win: Miller or Marquez
Not surprising win: Miller, Marquez, Fenati, Rins or Vazquez

Moto2: Rabat is the clear boss and nobody els is a legit contender (for the title). Kallio and Vinales are the most outstanding "other" riders. And of course, if it rains there is the old trusty West to pick a race.
Probable win: Rabat or Kallio
Not surprising win: Rabat, Kallio, Vinales, West (wet), Agerter and a few others (Salou, Folger, Corsi,...). A lot of possible winners, anyway.

MotoGP: Obviously Marquez. Nobody is even near of being a contender. However notable rides by Rossi, Pedrosa and Lorenzo (not surprise). Each one has done well against the monster in some race(s), no one of them is consistently reaching him, though.
Probable win: Marquez (come on, what a question)
Not surprising win: Marquez, Rossi, Pedrosa, Lorenzo (one can argue that a no Marquez win is a surprise in itself, but, let's keep it this way)

In sort, in this view, Moto3 is open to maybe Miller, Marquez and Fenati; Moto2 is in Rabat's hands (by now) ; MotoGP is another name of Marquez.

This is only an aspect of the question, focused mainly in who are the most probable race winners there. It downplays "regularity", but who lately wins a title on regularity without many wins?

[Schummy]

It's curious the breakdown by nationalities in the former classifications of riders who did "something" notable in any race, in the last post.

Moto3: Three anthems
4 spaniards 44% (Prob Win)
3 italians 24%
1 australian 31%
Three italians in this feeding cat, it is another sign "they" are coming back. Spain continues dominating, but far less that (the slightly embarrassing) last season.

Moto2: A cocktail of nations
3 spaniards 57%
2 german 6%
1 finnish 18%
1 australian 6%
1 swiss 4%
1 french 3%
1 italian 3%
1 belgian 3%
1 british 1%
Out of 12 riders, no one nation dominates the cat. Spain's score is basically one man effort, however it is above the other countries, with three riders.

MotoGP: The Spanish-Italian championship
6 spaniards >84%
3 italians <16%
Astounding domination. Six riders out of nine are from Spain, including one monster and two aliens . The contenders are always italians, headed by the superb-when-not-in-Ducati Rossi.

Total (24 riders)
13 spaniards
6 italians
2 australians
2 germans
1 finnish, swiss, french, belgian, british
In short: Among the notable riders, 50% are spanish, 25% are italians and 25% are of other (7) nationalities.

By the way, the PoW of Marquez in MotoGP doesn't show his true potential, as one can easily understand. The reason for that is the system used here is not able to cope with a so high level of achievement by one rider. So Marquez's PoW is underestimated, it's more like about 80% or so.