[LM24] The 2020 (not as good and late) Annual Le Mans Prediction Thread

[Adam43]

This year we are having a light version of the competition. Very simple rules.

The competition is a simple pole and number of laps affair.

1. Predict the fastest lap time from the hyperpole qualifying session.
It's only that session that counts for the lap time - it doesn't matter if someone goes quicker in another session.
Measured to the 0.001s
Just to cover us, it is the fastest overall time in this session irrespective of class or who the ACO actually give pole to.

2. Predict the number of laps for the winner
Total complete laps. i.e. the one after 24h and on the timing sheet.

In honour of the index of performance we shall have a formula for winner.

N=|Entrant prediction - number of laps completed by the winner|
P=|Entract prediction - number of seconds of hyperpole| (in seconds)
(it's the magnitude that matters, not whether you were above or below)

Your score will be
0.24N+P
e.g.
Actual winning time: 3:15.497; Prediction 3:17.000; P=1.503
Actual laps: 385; Prediction 380; N=5
Score: 0.24*5 + 1.503 = 2.703

Lowest score wins.

Please just post the pole time prediction followed by the numper of laps. e.g.
3:27.020
359

That's it no more info is needed in the post. There may be penalties for each additional character

Deadline: The start of hyperpole session. Which i believe is 11:30. 10-10ths post time (or edit time, whichever it later) is the decision on this.

If there is a tie and it involves someone who is French then they shall win.

In true ACO style, if there is any ambiguity or error we shall just make something up later. Judge's (me) decision is final, except you can appeal to the international sporting court of appeal (PascaLM, batmobile, joeb, skycafe, Aysedasi, Bentley03)

[Adam43]

1. Predict the hyperpole session fastest lap
2. Predict the number of laps by the winner

Get closer to have more chance of winning.

[Adam43]

3:27.020
359

[Lutzvic]

3:15.746
376 laps

[gert]

3.19.666
369 laps

[Aysedasi]

3:16.771
382

[Lasse]

3:17.261
378

[Truckosaurus]

3:18.001

350 laps

[GT6]

3.16000
380 laps

[nasdriv87]

3:14.890
383

[AndyN]

3:16:385
367

[PascaLM]

3:15.300
364

[Adam43]

3:15.222
383

[joeb]

3:15.848
374

[Hawkwood]

3:16.666
375

[whitemr2]

3.15.831
359

[Bentley03]

3:14.78
398

[Adam43]

Thanks for the entries. Good luck everyone

Entrant	Pole Time	Race laps
Lutzvic	3:15.746	376
gert	3:19.666	369
Aysedasi	3:16.771	382
Lasse	3:17.261	378
Truckosaurus	3:18.001	350
GT6	3:16.000	380
nasdriv87	3:14.890	383
AndyN	3:16.385	367
PascaLM	3:15.300	364
Adam43	3:15.222	383
joeb	3:15.848	374
Hawkwood	3:16.666	375
whitemr2	3:15.831	359
Bentley03	3:14.780	398
Average	3:16.312	374.1
Std Dev.	1.276	11.4

There is quite a spread on race lap predictions. The chart shows the predicted laps, the average and the spread.

[Adam43]

So Hyperpole is done and a fantastic result - PascaLM appropriately leads the competition at this stage of race week.

Here is the leader board after Hyperpole:

Entrant	Pole Time		Laps Behind
Le Mans 2020	3:15.267	0.000	-
PascaLM	3:15.300	0.033	0
Adam43	3:15.222	0.045	0.05
nasdriv87	3:14.890	0.377	1.43
Lutzvic	3:15.746	0.479	1.86
Bentley03	3:14.780	0.487	1.89
whitemr2	3:15.831	0.564	2.21
joeb	3:15.848	0.581	2.28
GT6	3:16.000	0.733	2.92
AndyN	3:16.385	1.118	4.52
Hawkwood	3:16.666	1.399	5.69
Aysedasi	3:16.771	1.504	6.13
Lasse	3:17.261	1.994	8.17
Truckosaurus	3:18.001	2.734	11.25
gert	3:19.666	4.399	18.19

Lap behind is how many laps your prediction needs to be closer than Pascal to overcome his lead (you'll need to round up!)

The chart shows every entry, the average of our predictions and spread, along with the actual pole time.

[Adam43]

How many race laps gets me onto the podium?

Laps	1st	2nd	3rd
< 352	whitemr2	Truckosaurus	PascaLM
352-355	whitemr2	PascaLM	Truckosaurus
356-360	whitemr2	PascaLM	AndyN
361-364	PascaLM	whitemr2	AndyN
365-366	PascaLM	AndyN	whitemr2
367-369	PascaLM	AndyN	joeb
370	PascaLM	joeb	AndyN
371-372	joeb	Lutzvic	PascaLM
373-374	joeb	Lutzvic	Hawkwood
375-376	Lutzvic	joeb	Hawkwood
377	Lutzvic	joeb	GT6
378	Lutzvic	GT6	Adam43
379	GT6	Adam43	Lutzvic
380	GT6	Adam43	nasdriv87
381-388	Adam43	nasdriv87	GT6
> 389	Adam43	nasdriv87	Bentley03

[GT6]

Blimey i have a chance

[Aysedasi]

It would seem that I'm a lost cause........

[Adam43]

You’re unlucky that even if you nail the laps there are people who were close enough to pole to beat you due to the arbitrary index of performance applied.

However, there is still significant prestige in bagging the number of laps prize. Like PascaLM has with the pole prediction.

[whitemr2]

Looking good

[Truckosaurus]

I shall be doing an R-Word Dance tonight....