The top order post Schuey?

**chunterer** · 27 Aug 2006, 17:03 (Ref:1693883)

The last 2 races have once again given us a glimpse of how F1 might look after Michael retires.

Assuming he goes either at the end of the year (or next?) the top order of drivers looks pretty strong doesn't it?

We'll have Fernando and Kimi as the undoubted top 2 but first wins for Jenson and Felipe illustrate that they will also be stars over the next few seasons.

Who else can we look at as likely winners and title challengers?

Of the current crop, Webber has to be a possibility either with Red Bull or not.

Rosberg has had a tought debut season but it'll stand him in good stead.

Can Fisichella do the job at Renault without Alonso there?

What about new guys?

Kubica has shown he has something, Kovalainen ought to be up there if he gets the Renault drive. Lewis Hamilton is clearly going to be a driver to watch once he steps up.

What about Timo Glock or Sebastian Vettel?

Then in the next 3 years I'd say we'll have the likes of Bruno Senna, Marco Andretti, Pastor Maldonado coming through.

Surely we're going to have some cracking battles for supremacy to look forward to?

kipper · 27 Aug 2006, 17:18 (Ref:1693893)

I think that the bulk of the next few championships will be won by Raikkonen or Alonso. I suspect that Button may find himself in a championship winning situation sooner or later, although I doubt that he will win as many as Alonso could. With regard to Massa, I have been highly impressed by his performanes of late, but I guess the problem could be how a post Schumacher, Ferrari team operates, especially if Raikkonen is in the team. That said, he has the potential to go far and Ferrari are probably of a similar opinion, given the length of time he has been employed by them.

As for the newcomers; Rosberg, Kubica, Hamilton and Kovaleinen will undoubtedly feature prominantly in F1 although given the teams that they are likely to be racing for in the near future and their prospective teammates it is a little tricky to predicate just how well they will do in F1.

As for drivers in the longer term, then as mentioned Bruno Senna and Marco Andretti seem to have the ability and name to get them into F1. I also suspect that Paul di Resta will get into F1 sooner or later.

Either way, I suspect that there wil be some fascinating battles in the next couple of years of F1.

maltafan · 27 Aug 2006, 17:24 (Ref:1693896)

Quote:

Originally Posted by chunterer

The last 2 races have once again given us a glimpse of how F1 might look after Michael retires.

Assuming he goes either at the end of the year (or next?) the top order of drivers looks pretty strong doesn't it?

We'll have Fernando and Kimi as the undoubted top 2 but first wins for Jenson and Felipe illustrate that they will also be stars over the next few seasons.

Who else can we look at as likely winners and title challengers?

Of the current crop, Webber has to be a possibility either with Red Bull or not.

Rosberg has had a tought debut season but it'll stand him in good stead.

Can Fisichella do the job at Renault without Alonso there?

What about new guys?

Kubica has shown he has something, Kovalainen ought to be up there if he gets the Renault drive. Lewis Hamilton is clearly going to be a driver to watch once he steps up.

What about Timo Glock or Sebastian Vettel?

Then in the next 3 years I'd say we'll have the likes of Bruno Senna, Marco Andretti, Pastor Maldonado coming through.

Surely we're going to have some cracking battles for supremacy to look forward to?

Winning one race does not mean that they are going to be stars and win championships. Alonso and Kimi are clear favourites till now, I think, but I expect young ones like Kubika, Rosberg and Hamilton will be the ones to look for in 3 years' time, given that they have a competitive car

Knowlesy · 27 Aug 2006, 17:32 (Ref:1693902)

Alonso, Kimi, Kubica, Massa, Kovaleinen, Hamilton will be big hitters IMO.

The likes of Button.....can Honda provide him with the equipment?

Whatever, things should be thrill a minute!

freud · 27 Aug 2006, 17:35 (Ref:1693906)

As far as my 10 cents... right now among the young drivers

Alonso is the most complete racer.. and
Raikkonen is the fastest on one lap.. not a consistent racer though

If Kimi gets into Ferrari (and MS retires), he will probably win the title next year as Ferrari (with all the rule changes) is most likely to sustain its pace and not get affected from the engine development freeze (and the bridgestone tyre connections will not hurt either). Alonso will find it hard to adjust to Mclaren in his first year.

Button can be an excellent package and a surprise winner! He's overall a better racer than Kimi (imho).

Rest, I am not so sure of. Rosberg is immature.. Webber is very similar to DC. Massa will be on and off (even in a Ferrari).

Raven · 27 Aug 2006, 17:38 (Ref:1693908)

You can never really predict the future.

Back in 97, everyone was looking at the likes of Fisichella, Wurz and Panis to be the guys who would feature heavily over the upcoming years. Didn't really work out that way though.

Montoya - probably the most hyped driver of the last 15 years - has come and gone.

Pizzonia, another very promising junior series talent that many had high hopes for, sadly didn't make the grade.

Heidfeld, the next great German of the late 90s - he has made the grade, but has kind of sat in the background for much of his career to date.

Alonso and Raikkonen both came into F1 with very little fanfare. Most of the attention on Raikkonen in early 2001 was negative - he was too inexperienced to be given a super-licence most said, F-Renault to F1 was too big a step.

Alonso meanwhile was just another Esteban Tuero. A young kid who had some sponsorship behind him.

In short, you can never really pint point the stars of the future. Often someone unassuming will come along and take everyone by surprise.

Knowlesy · 27 Aug 2006, 17:41 (Ref:1693913)

It also takes more than talent. Juan Pablo Montoya was as raw and as real a talent as there ever was, but it just isn't enough for championships these days sadly, boringly.

Hamilton looks to be the complete package. Whereas perhaps Nico Rosberg isn't.

VilleneuveTracy · 27 Aug 2006, 19:31 (Ref:1694044)

Good thread, Chunterer.

Good post, Raven. People are getting excited about this new era in F1 because these drivers all look good on paper based on their lower formula records. We are probably not going to have a Senna/Prost/Piqut/Mansell/Bergher era begin in the next few years. It will likely be an ordinary era.

Alonso--the only driver who looks to be on the road to greatness, MS's successor
Raikkonen--Can he overtake Alonso or is he overrated and another driver who will win races but never a WDC? He was great in 2005 but the fact remains that he had a winning car from 2002-2005 and won 9 races, not bad, but a sign of a new legend?
Webber--Always does more than he should with his car. Underrated IMO. I hope RBR can give him a good car so we can see what he can do.
Fisichella--It is a crime that he will be in a Renault next year. He showed that he isn't capable of being a team leader in the last two races.
Rosberg--The first of the new mini-wave (counting Button/Alonso/Kimi/Massa as a separate group) of young drivers. Where are the results??? Rosberg will be typical of most of these "great" new drivers...

Kubica--Has been lapped in both of his races. He was well off the pace today. Thus far, he looks like another Nico Rosberg.
Kovalainen--The current flavor of the month, the new "next big thing." He was beaten by Rosberg in GP2. If Rosberg is better than him, Renault will be in for a long 2007.
Hamilton--Another paper future World Champion but it is very difficult to predict anything about him until he actually runs in a F1 car. Who would have thought Rosberg would be this weak a year ago? A month ago who would have thought Kubica would be outpaced by a rookie in a STR while he was in a BMW?
The other drivers you mentioned are even bigger question marks than Hamilton.

We have to remember history. In any given era how many World Champions are there? How many race winners are there? How many of those have more than one or two lucky wins? Based on the odds, the vast majority of these new drivers will be journeymn. There simply ies not much room at that top. Keep in mind that of the 22 drivers who raced this weekend only two are World Champions.

ralf fan · 27 Aug 2006, 20:04 (Ref:1694096)

Quote:

Originally Posted by VilleneuveTracy

Rosberg--The first of the new mini-wave (counting Button/Alonso/Kimi/Massa as a separate group) of young drivers. Where are the results??? Rosberg will be typical of most of these "great" new drivers...

Kubica--Has been lapped in both of his races. He was well off the pace today. Thus far, he looks like another Nico Rosberg.

I dont get your logic VT. If Robert is a bad driver because he got lapped.... then surely Alonso is an average plodder because he got lapped race in race out in 2001....and more often than not was over 3 secs off the pace....
Give the guy a fair chance.
As for Nico..... his start was sensational.... anyone expecting him to continue at such form would be naive. give him another season....before judging him.....he drove well today before retiring....
and to mind.. noone has categorically said that these drivers will be great champions... just that at this moment they look like the best bets to become one...

**Bononi** · 27 Aug 2006, 20:46 (Ref:1694123)

I prefer wait for the next season to see how those young drivers evolve.

Any one of them can shine once in a while or become the top star of the category.

JeremySmith · 27 Aug 2006, 23:38 (Ref:1694192)

Quote:

Originally Posted by ralf fan

I dont get your logic VT. If Robert is a bad driver because he got lapped.... then surely Alonso is an average plodder because he got lapped race in race out in 2001....and more often than not was over 3 secs off the pace....
Give the guy a fair chance.
As for Nico..... his start was sensational.... anyone expecting him to continue at such form would be naive. give him another season....before judging him.....he drove well today before retiring....
and to mind.. noone has categorically said that these drivers will be great champions... just that at this moment they look like the best bets to become one...

Also the the drivers performance is predicated on how good the car is. The Williams compared to the front runners is not that good is it?

av8rirl · 27 Aug 2006, 23:45 (Ref:1694194)

Great thread but I notice here that Massa is pretty much still being discounted here. Just a quick note that for the second half of the season (the past 6 races), Massa has scored more points than the all-conquering Alonso! Personally I think he has matured nicely... no one can doubt that he has raw speed.

Also, I'm getting a bad feeling about Kimi. Surely a guy cannot be this unlucky?? Is he a car breaker? How come he ends up in the sh1t if theres something going on? No doubt that he is quick but I don't think he'll win a WDC. I was a big fan of JPM who is said was not a good development driver.

McLaren have gone downhill since DC got the push... Some people might laugh but just look at the stats... Perhaps Kimi is not so good at developing a car? So if he does end up in a good Ferrari... is it only a matter of time before they start to go downhill because Kimi can't continue its development?

I think Webber is over-rated. What has he ever really won? The FF festival 10 years ago, one F3 win and one F3000 win. Thats about it really!

Champions have the ability to not just be fast but mainly to win. When you look back at Schumachers career he has pulled of some really great wins out of nothing. Much and all as it pains me to say it, Alonso is the only one of the current field that can reel off the wins! Hamilton seems to have the same ability throughout his career. He also has multiple championships to his name!

VilleneuveTracy · 28 Aug 2006, 00:31 (Ref:1694203)

Alonso was in a Minardi and outqualified his teammates 15-2 in 2001.

Kubica was in a podium car in Hungary and a car that was good enough to be 5th on the grid in Turkey. I don't think he is a bad driver. It is too early to truly assess how good he is and he certainly will improve but thus far he has shown no signs of being a special driver. His Hungary debut was considered "great" but the fact is he was lapped by his own teammate who finished on the podium. Future World Champions Michael Schumacher, Mika Hakkinen, Damon Hill, and Jacques Villeneuve all showed signs of greatness in their first few races (despite the fact all four of these recent champions were paired with World Champions in their first few races). Let's see if Kubica also will.

The official excuse from Mario T., whose neck will be on the line of Kubica becomes a bust, is that tire choice did Kubica in. That is funny. The tires were fine for Heidfeld in Hungary and Turkey, while Kubica destroyed his tires to the point of disqualification in Hungary and was 2 seconds slower than Heidfeld at the end of the Turkish GP. Heidfeld has not had tire problems all season; neither did JV in 12 races. They did so well on tire wear that they had Michelin build a special super-soft tire for them. Yet Kubica runs two races and has "tire problems" in both? I wonder what is causing that.

Williams have regressed greatly since the beginning of this year but Rosberg has progressively gotten worse vis-a-vis Webber. Could he be expected to keep running great? He was going to have some rookie outings but we have to keep in mind future WDC's usually show some strength even early on. The four WDC's I mentioned all did well despite being paired with WDC's. Rosberg is paired with an alleged "division two" driver. Did people predict him to do well? I think so. Refer to the thread early in the season about the top 10 drivers. Virtually everyone listed Rosberg ahead of Webber and Rosberg was 4th or 5th on many people's list. There were some who added Rosberg to the trio of MS, Alonso, and Raikkonen. There was great hype surrounding him in the Spring.

It is unrealistic to expect rookies to contend for regular wins, podiums, or the WDC in their first year. How many rookies have been able to do that? I do expect future great drivers to show some flashes of brilliance, though. Kubica has only run two races so he needs to be given more time before even a preliminary judgement can be made; Rosberg is a different story.

I do concede that few people are directly saying particular drivers will be WDC's but it is often implied in posts about how great they will be, especially the ones comparing them to Schumacher/Senna/Prost.

freud · 28 Aug 2006, 02:53 (Ref:1694233)

Tracy,

I agree with you in that next few years will likely be an ordinary era in the history of F1.

However, that has actually been the case since the death of Senna. I think 1994 to 2005 has been the most ordinary among all the different eras of F1. Michael was the most complete racer of this 12 year period. However he never had a great competitor... instead he had 4-5 above-average drivers (Hill being by far the best among all of them)..

Schumacher will always be remembered as a flawed genious who dominated his era basically because he never had to compete against a formibadle foe or a formidable teammate. If it were up to me, I would put the 5 titles of Fangio and the 4 titles of Prost above Michael's 7.

Pro Racer · 28 Aug 2006, 03:15 (Ref:1694238)

here is my 07 predictions (not including crappy cars and teams)

if the shu keeps on racing:
1. shumacher (given the advantage of ferrari he or his team mate will win)
2. Alonso (if he can do it in a lower car or he can make the macca better)
3. Massa (if kimi dosn't go to ferrari)
4. Raikkonen (given he dosnt go to ferrari if he dose he would be 2nd)
5. Webber (we all know he can drive and if RBR give him a good car ???)

if the shu calls it a day:
1. Raikkonen (its a gift if he goes to ferrari with the ferrari advantage)
2. Alonso (if he can do it in a lower car or he can make the macca better)
3. Massa (would give raikkonen a run for his money)
4. Webber (we all know he can drive and if RBR give him a good car ???)
5. Coulthard (well i think it would be him and Webber fighting for 4th and 5th)

freud · 28 Aug 2006, 03:22 (Ref:1694241)

I just dont think Alonso has any chance whatsoever next year.

Macs look awful! I mean its hard to contemplate if they can improve. Infact it is quite possible next year they will be beaten heavily by the likes of Honda and Toyota, teams with good engines. Remember that no engine development after the Chinese GP. Based on current performance, Mercedez engine is not among the Top 5 engines in F1.

Banning Berrylium (another FIA political decision) did Merc. Lets hope banning the mass damper will not leave Renault in damp.

To add to it.. Alonso made a wild and wrong decision to leave his current team. Renault will most probably be there next year (if not close but still second) alongwith Honda and perhaps Toyota. Flavio is still the man.

deejay · 28 Aug 2006, 04:27 (Ref:1694252)

Looking at the next 5 years:

Alonso and Kimi of course.

If Massa keeps his Ferrari drive I expect a lot more podiums from him. Ferrari are expected to drop off performance wise in coming years though so it might not be so good for him.

Button will be a big factor in the next 5 years. I expect Honda will have at least a couple of seasons where they are a contender in that period. Button has grown into a great all round racer - his wheel-to-wheel ability has greatly improved.

Along with Honda I'd put the other Japanese team as "most likely to improve" in the next period, as such my dark horse for a championship in the next 5 years will be Ralf. Toyota have been on the verge of breaking through to the top level for a couple of seasons now - and if they do then Ralf will be well positioned. He's very experienced and a race winner. The question is, can he put a whole season together?

Personally, it's too soon to say about Heikki and Hamilton, but of the new boys they look to have the best opportunities with regard to equipment.

deeks6 · 28 Aug 2006, 09:09 (Ref:1694331)

Firstlt, i agree with most of what VilleneuveTracy said - very well put ...

Now, what I find amazing (always) about F1 is the amount of hype some drivers get (good and bad) and how long it takes to wear off - examples:

JPM - next big thing, looked great for spectators but hwen all said and done was inconsistent, hard on cars, not a good developer, unfit, undedicated and, in the end uninterested.

Raikkonnen - jeepers, it blows me away how people rave about this guy and even the "all time great" stiff ... beaten by Heidfeld in rookie year but then gets the best seat going in F1 and shows that he can win 9 GPs (at a 9% strike rate) in a car that can win titles - compare to Alonso who has 24% winning strike rate AND a title, probably 2. raikkonnen is not in the same class as Alonso and never will be. He is also careless, hard on cars and inconsistent. I would bet there are at least 5 or 6 guys on the grid who would outscore KR in the same equipment.

Massa - the much vilified young man who showed great speed but made a few errors. Well, well, we3ll ... he gets a good car and BINGO ... suddenly he can drive. Stick it up them son.

Fisichella and Trulli - always supposed to be the "blindingly fast" guys who will win races when they get a good car. Well, they've both had good cars and won 3 races between them (and Fisi's Brazil win was only because the race was stopped). What are Renault and Toyota thinking?

DC - OK driver but been completely outclassed by every teammate. Why RBR would keep him in front of Klien who has been unlucky is beyond me. But the British still wrap him up.

Barrichello - much vilified because he couldnt beat (arguably) the greatest driver ever. Well, gee, thats a surprise. yet, after just a handfull of races, he has been outperforming the "great" Button - except for some bad luck at the last 2 races.

Tonio Liuzzi - supposed to be the NEXT BIG THING yet he has been consistently outperformed by Scott Speed (who?) after being consistently outperformed by Klien. Another Trulli, Alesi, Fisi ...

Rosberg - was gonna absolutely towel Mark Webber according to all and sundry - hmmm, well ... how about get completely outclassed?

Webber - consistently vilified as a B-Grader despite the stats saying that he is right up there. We'll never know now that he has'nt picked up a Renault, McLaren or Ferrari seat.

Heidfeld - another supposed B-Grader who is another driver who tends to put his equipment in positions they have no right to be in. I hope BMW make a decent rig and you just watch this guy take it to them. Good racer.

The best - wait for the deeks stats and I'll show you - watch this space.

deejay · 28 Aug 2006, 10:45 (Ref:1694401)

Quote:

Originally Posted by deeks6

Barrichello... after just a handfull of races, he has been outperforming the "great" Button - except for some bad luck at the last 2 races.

That isn't even close to true.

BootsOntheSide · 28 Aug 2006, 11:05 (Ref:1694424)

Raikkonen hasn't had a car capable of winning titles. The 2005 car broke down at half the races (although not for 'hard on cars' Montoya), and he ultimately finished well behind Alonso (and Fernando probably didn't have to push 100% for most of the season). The 2003 title turned on that reclarification on what constituted a legal tyre. 2004's car was awful, and 2002 wasn't really there. As for comparing his rookie season to Heidfeld - remember that Kimi was straight out of Formula Renault while Nick had done a year of F1 and 2 years of F3000. Hardly a fair comparison, unless you think Mercedes were wrong.

**Bononi** · 28 Aug 2006, 11:08 (Ref:1694429)

I think RB is slowly fading into retirement...

Bleu · 28 Aug 2006, 11:19 (Ref:1694440)

Quote:

Originally Posted by deeks6

Tonio Liuzzi - supposed to be the NEXT BIG THING yet he has been consistently outperformed by Scott Speed (who?) after being consistently outperformed by Klien. Another Trulli, Alesi, Fisi ...

Liuzzi leads 10-4 in qualifying so he has been better this season. Both have had their share of incidents this year. When both have finished Liuzzi is leading 4-1.

Quote:

Originally Posted by freud

Tracy,

I agree with you in that next few years will likely be an ordinary era in the history of F1.

However, that has actually been the case since the death of Senna. I think 1994 to 2005 has been the most ordinary among all the different eras of F1. Michael was the most complete racer of this 12 year period. However he never had a great competitor... instead he had 4-5 above-average drivers (Hill being by far the best among all of them)..

I agree with you that Schumacher hasn't had same share of opponents since Senna's death. He has as many titles as Senna and Prost together, but of course those two couldn't win it in same year. This is Michaels 16th season while there was 15 seasons when either Prost or Senna was racing (including all seasons where they didn't race every race, like Schuey in 1991 and Senna in 1994, when Prost was not racing anymore.

However, I rank Häkkinen much ahead of Hill. Of course I'm Finnish like Mika is, but still...

Räikkönen and Alonso are still young but they need to have about 10 seasons until you really can see how good they are. At this moment, I feel that there is three drivers above the rest: Schumacher, Alonso and Kimi.

Pro Racer · 28 Aug 2006, 11:19 (Ref:1694441)

i think RB is going down in performances too.

maximus · 28 Aug 2006, 14:07 (Ref:1695389)

You know Deeks I could respect that post you made if any part of it was accurate and unbiased....

Rex Judicata · 28 Aug 2006, 14:55 (Ref:1695419)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bononi

I think RB is slowly fading into retirement...

Rubinho made a career decision when he signed on as #2 at Ferrari. I think he did this very consciously, once he realized that he was not the next Senna.

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