The Very, Very Early 2010 Predictions Thread

[jab]

I know it's early and we don't quite have the full line-up yet, but how about some early predictions?

I think it'll be between these 4 teams

Ferrari

Pros
Alonso
KERS no longer an issue
Started development early

Cons
Questions over Massa's fitness
Potential line-up friction
Incompetancy

McLaren

Pros
Lewis
High development rate, as shown this year
Stability in the team itself

Cons
Potential line-up friction
Developed the car until late on in the season
Losing Merc support (more long-term, though - shouldn't come into play yet)

Red Bull

Pros
Momentum - strong end to the year
Adrian Newey
Arguably the strongest driver line-up in the field

Cons
Developed RB5 right up to the end of the season, combined with smaller budget/less resources
Reliability issues this year (after losing Willis?)
No confirmed engine supply - RB6 is being built around Renault engine but they could pull out

Mercedes

Pros
Reigning champions - confidence high, know how to win
Started development early
Merc will bring more money

Cons
Drifted in the second half of the season
No driver stability
Weaker driver line-up (as it stands)

It's impossible to tell at such an early stage, but I'd be putting my money on Lewis and McLaren at this stage, with Ferrari as nearest challengers as they tend to do well the year after big rule changes (e.g. 1999, 2004, 2006). But usually that's the kiss of death - I tipped Renault for this year, and Honda for 07, and look where that got them

I don't see any other team other than these 4 taking the title, although not all necessarily contending. If you want a wildcard choice, I'd be looking at Sauber if they manage to get to the grid - BMW have kept funding the development of the new car and they ended the year strongly (compared to mid-season, anyway), so if they can put together a decent driver line-up and Qadbak do have the cash after all, they may well surprise a few people. Not quite Brawn-style but they may be consistent points scorers and get on the podium a few times

Discovery of the year will be Hulkenberg. Disappointment of the year will be Renault (again) or Force India failing to progress. And one of the new teams will surprise people and get some decent results - I'd say Lotus at this stage but it could be any of them. I guess US F1 making the grid would be a surprise to many

I think overall it'll be more of a closed shop affair, with a breakaway big 2/3/4. We've had it good for the last couple of years with loads of different winning teams and drivers. I can't see it going on forever unless the hand of Bernie is at work

[Lancsbreaker]

Not a bad summary....tho I think Massa should be fit enough - he's got plenty of time, and he'll be motivated enough.....

[SALEEN S7R]

Sorry, but didnt Brawn and Button win both the drivers and teams championship this year?

[Marbot]

Anyone who predicted that Honda would sell its team to its management for a reputed £1, go on to win both titles, and then become Mercedes GP, will have no trouble at all predicting what will happen next season.

The biggest thing to me that will upset any predictions is the lack of refuelling and the narrower front tyres, together with the lack of testing. The other is the performance of the Cosworth engine, which they can keep on developing right up until March!

And another, of course, is that 'General Circumstance' is likely to play a large part in just about everything!

[Mr V]

Originally Posted by jab

Red Bull

Pros

Arguably the strongest driver line-up in the field

Mate, i just love your dedication but i'd put pairing of Alonso and Massa and Hamilton and Button above the Red Bull line up, although i do think that one of the Red Bull guys is the best out there

Not sure about the Constructors, proberbly between McLaren and Ferrari with the drivers title between Vettel, Alonso and Hamilton.

[duke_toaster]

I think it'll be a close year, but with McLaren taking the title. Other predictions are ...

• USF1 to be rolling chicanes
• Manor to finish in the top ten
• Campos to finish just outside the top ten
• Torro Rosso at no risk of plum last but come in 12 or 11th whichever it is
• Lotus to aquit themselves well
• Cosworth engine to be adequate
• If Kamui Kobayashi gets a seat, him getting a podium or, if a good car, possibly to become Japan's first F1 race winner

[Gerryc]

I agree with the comment on Kobayashi - very impressive given the chance in 2009. I just hope he gets that chance in 2010

[Marbot]

Originally Posted by duke_toaster

[*]USF1 to be rolling chicanes

So you're also predicting that they will be in F1 and will also be able to move?

[S.Moss]

It possibly will be Mclarens year judging on the end of this years pace. Mercedes will be interesting to see how the drivers get on, especially if they have another good car like this year it will show whether they should of hung onto rubens and jenson another year or so

[MrTTraces]

I predict that TGF, JV and Kimi will be racing next year and they'll each win a race

[Spritle]

I predict another boring season with no overtaking and massive rules changes and a similar massive reduction in the size of the grid implemented at the end of the season.

I also predict MS will stay home with Corinna & the kids and JV will continue to tell everyone things are looking good for a 2010 ride.

[Marbot]

Originally Posted by MrTTraces

I predict that TGF, JV and Kimi will be racing next year and they'll each win a race

Staying with that, I'll predict that US F1 will qualify on pole at the first race, and only not win it because Senna manages to sneak passed on the final corner. Lotus will get fastest lap, and Alonso will not throw things around the pit area.

[MrTTraces]

Originally Posted by Marbot

Staying with that, I'll predict that US F1 will qualify on pole at the first race, and only not win it because Senna manages to sneak passed on the final corner. Lotus will get fastest lap, and Alonso will not throw things around the pit area.

Ha ha Like it.

You know when you go some fast food places or banks and they have a kiddie corner with a box of lego / toys in it, do you think Ferrari will be providing something like that for Alonso in the corner of the hospitality area?

[Marbot]

Originally Posted by MrTTraces

Ha ha Like it.

You know when you go some fast food places or banks and they have a kiddie corner with a box of lego / toys in it, do you think Ferrari will be providing something like that for Alonso in the corner of the hospitality area?

Yes, there will be a supervised "creche" area, and a designated wall for throwing things at. Ferrari have learned from McLaren's mistakes in this area, and have even designated it: D.T.C. (Driver Tantrum Control).

P.S. Or I could be kidding.

[Bononi]

Originally Posted by jab

I know it's early and we don't quite have the full line-up yet, but how about some early predictions?

I think it'll be between these 4 teams

Ferrari

Pros
Alonso
KERS no longer an issue
Started development early

Cons
Questions over Massa's fitness
Potential line-up friction

Almost agree with all, with the exception that Alonso will not be in Pros and replacing "Potential" for a certainty.

Originally Posted by jab

Incompetancy

Sorry but I don't understand this word...

Originally Posted by jab

McLaren

Pros
Lewis
High development rate, as shown this year
Stability in the team itself

Cons
Potential line-up friction
Developed the car until late on in the season
Losing Merc support (more long-term, though - shouldn't come into play yet)

Almost agree in everything with the exception that in Cons you should add :

Hamilton's ambition and the silver plate of the house.
Replace "Potential" for a certainty.

[jab]

Originally Posted by Bononi

Sorry but I don't understand this word...

They're occasionally incompetant - like putting Kimi on wets in the dry at Sepang this year

[strider]

Originally Posted by jab

They're occasionally incompetant - like putting Kimi on wets in the dry at Sepang this year

Does no-one use Firefox with the spell-checker? The word is 'incompetent.' Maybe that's what Bononi was politely referring to.

If not, just about every team has been incompetent at one time or another. You can strive for perfection, but you won't always get it. Even the wondrous McLaren - sending out Heikki with the front tyres fitted the wrong way around (last year I think) or in Brazil with the fuel hose trailing and momentarily setting fire to the ice-cool Kimi.

[Bononi]

Thanks strider, that's it, incompetent.

[JamesH]

I'd go for a Macca 1-2 - Button to give LH a run for his money but being pipped at the post. Ferrari OK, but not as good as Red Bull. Mercedes...Hmmm....not as good as this year. Probably fighting it out with Ferrari for 4th place in the Constructors.

As for the new teams, who knows? Currently no-one has an idea how the Cossie engine performs, or their respective chassis, so it's really a coin toss. They won't have the money to catch up if behind, whereas if they get a march on the rest (Like Brawn) the other teams will have the money to catch up, as Macca did this year.

[JamesH]

Originally Posted by strider

Does no-one use Firefox with the spell-checker? The word is 'incompetent.' Maybe that's what Bononi was politely referring to.

Not everyone uses Firefox....

[although I do, with the spell chekcer]

[Marbot]

Foretuneatly, knot evverione neads too yuse a spel chekcer.

[duke_toaster]

I use FF with the spellcheck. However there are some correct words that aren't in the dictionary (yes, I am using the British English dictionary).

[HughGJohnson]

Originally Posted by Marbot

Foretuneatly, knot evverione neads too yuse a spel chekcer.

You spelled "a" wrong.*

As for early predictions...

Constructors championship to be battle between Ferrari and McLaren with Mercedes and Red Bull fighting for a somewhat distant third.

On-track drama between Lewis and Fernando leading to at least speculation of perceived off-track drama. Lewis will insist their mates and Fernando will say he hates McLaren but not Lewis. Odds of Lewis-Fernando becoming openly hostile 3:2 against.

WDC to be battle between the aforementioned former teammates with Lewis winning partially on strength of a better car.

Veteran posters to complain that all the races are boring. "I didn't watch it at all because it was boring."

Kamui Kobayashi to outrace his own car a la Alonso for the last two years.

The ghost of Kimi to prove as distraction to any underachieving driver on a reasonably competitive team.

USF1 to greatly exceed all expectations and be horrible. Posters to continue to mock USF1 and predict the imminent demise of USF1.

Nico Rosberg to be outperformed by any teammate but Kaz Nakajima, Piquet, Grosjean, JV or me. However, he will look better than any teammate but Danica Patrick (I like brunettes).

[Neil22]

Liked the summary but see Massa as next years champion. Then again, I've been saying this for years.

[Lotusonpole]

Originally Posted by Marbot

Foretuneatly, knot evverione neads too yuse a spel chekcer.

I do and check all my spells and they still don't work.