TGF and 'The Regie'

SH0077 · 5 May 2001, 00:49 (Ref:89096)

The further that we get into the 2001 Formula 1 season, the more I am starting to see Renault's plan take shape. Many believe that with all their testing and the fact that they are allowed to park their Motor Home in the F3000 carpack (They will be at all European Grand Prix this year as spectators), Toyota have a edge as newcomers for their entry in 2002. I know a team that has got a even better package for their testing in 2001. They buy out a mid-feild team, but keep their excisting name on it until just the right time. 'Regie' can throw any kind of engine in it and if it fails it will be Benetton - Renault that has failed, not Renault! Renault are conducting a years testing in race trim for the 2002 F1 Season. Toyota must be fuming behind closed doors becauce of this. Throughout the remainder of the 2001 season im sure that the current Benetton - Renault will continue to cause headaches for all concerned, but with steady improvements and hopefully it will be a regular points finisher by seasons end. With another Winters test behind them Im sure that Renault will come out punching next year and making sure that they have TGF on their payroll as soon as he comes out of contract with Ferrari will only help (Regardless of cost Im sure that they will try). It would be great to see Renault win a Championship of their own; we all know how painful it was last time they tried. TGF and Renault to be Champions in 2003-4, I can only dream...

riusnow · 5 May 2001, 01:02 (Ref:89102)

I can't wait for Toyota to enter the championship.
Renault winning one would be interesting.

Liz · 5 May 2001, 02:08 (Ref:89132)

Imconceivable, but interesting.

EERO · 5 May 2001, 02:12 (Ref:89135)

Schuamcher has been pretty explicit about his desire to conclude his career at Ferrari. He has three -four seasons in him still, maybe as many as eight. But I cannot see him going to Renault, though Shoo, the remainder of your theory is quite compelling. Benetton was going no where but down, Renault will arrive on the scene with a whole season under their belt.

Maxmil · 5 May 2001, 13:15 (Ref:89278)

Quote:

Originally posted by SH0077
TGF and Renault to be Champions in 2003-4, I can only dream...

I also think it will be hard to get TGF (Great Acronym) out of Ferrari, BUT, what just might do it would be an ownership share of a team, and the Regie just might be willing to bring him in on that basis. Dream on for the moment.

Liz · 5 May 2001, 13:43 (Ref:89286)

Ooh, now there's a scary thought. If you think Prost is making a dogs breakfast of the transition from WDC champion to owner, think what TGF could bring to the grid! Everything that makes him the power behind Ferrari would work 100% against him as an owner, would it not? Or would it?

SH0077 · 6 May 2001, 01:23 (Ref:89523)

It's gonna be a hard pill to swallow for most of the Anti-TGF movement in our Forum, but I dont see Schumacher not being Involved in F1 for a very long time. Just Imagine Willi Webber deciding if they should buy into this team or that team!? Whatever they do Im sure he will succeed. Maybe in a role similiar to the 'RAT'.

Dino IV · 6 May 2001, 02:37 (Ref:89537)

Where does the idea come from that TGF will drive F1 "another three -four seasons, maybe as many as eight"? I am willing to take another gamble at any of Mr. Bounce's horrible pie's that TGF will quit at the end of this season. He's just at the end of his abilities as is Ferrari. They're pushing as much as they can, but mental and spiritual fatigue is inevitably showing. There's no-one in Maranello who doesn't know it's one big Williams-Montoya-Michelin show next year and if there's anyone who's painfully aware of losing grip at the events it's surely TGF. Momentum is not in their hands and they won't be able to get it back from the BMW-Merc-blitzkrieg easily. In that war between the German arch-rivals much more deciding factors play a key-factor than just 'we want to win'. Those two need to win from each other. A BMW-victory is a slap in the face of Mercedes and vice-versa. A Ferrari victory to those two is just friendly laughter in the paddock, but pressure? No. That's a really huge difference.

And TGF has gotten onto a point in his career in which sitting around for a season or two in third, fourth, fifth place in the WDC, waiting for the thing to come his way again is not an option. That's why I think this is his last season.

It's funny that it coincides with Renault's first season, but I don't know what to think of them right know. They seek advantages in ultra-innovative design and unless you're really sure that's the way to go, you shouldn't do that. When we draw a parallel between the Benetton-Renault > Renault and the Stewart-Ford > Jaguar programmes we see some similarities. Ford started pumping all the innovations they could think of into that programme: joint-oilsystem for engine and gearbox, ultra thin enginewalls, mono-liner cylinderblocks, 'disposable' short stroke engines, multi-linkage rearsuspension, very steep climbing diffuser design, short wheelbase etc. It all ended in the road of total misery. They removed all those innovations for this year car and what they now have is the other hand of the spectrum: too conservative. So I really can't say. Renault (or Toyota, their car looked amazingly well) could prove mighty spectacular, but changes are higher it will be a long, tough and maybe fruitless road. Anyway: bonne change!

EERO · 6 May 2001, 03:13 (Ref:89543)

Quote:

Originally posted by Dino IV
Where does the idea come from that TGF will drive F1 "another three -four seasons, maybe as many as eight"? I am willing to take another gamble at any of Mr. Bounce's horrible pie's that TGF will quit at the end of this season. He's just at the end of his abilities as is Ferrari. They're pushing as much as they can, but mental and spiritual fatigue is inevitably showing. There's no-one in Maranello who doesn't know it's one big Williams-Montoya-Michelin show next year and if there's anyone who's painfully aware of losing grip at the events it's surely TGF.

Wow, Dino, a compelling arguement, but I have to believe that Schumacher is obsessive enough about competition to not give up without a fight. A few things stick out in my mind, first, who could replace him? They better start grooming now. I believe Barrichello is on the way out and no one as of yet is seriously linked to the team.
Secondly, Schumacher has stated his intention to race on into 2003,2004 at least. Possibly if Williams BMW become a juggernaut next season, and Ferrari slip as much as you suggest, then retirement might become a more appealling option. For now, I just don't see it.

And finally, even if F1 devolves into a Mercedes/BMW battle, there will still be wet races and Spa and Monaco for TGF to make his point.

Valve Bounce · 6 May 2001, 07:19 (Ref:89567)

We forget that TGF is making a helluva lot more as a driver than Prost, Lauda, Fittipaldi, or Surtees ever did. Personally, I don't see TGF retiring after another successful year this year, and I cannot see TGF ever taking on any other role in F1 other than as a driver. As for my horrible humble pies, Dino, they are in the oven waiting for you, chilli sauce and all.

Carla O · 6 May 2001, 08:42 (Ref:89576)

Quote:

Originally posted by EERO
I have to believe that Schumacher is obsessive enough about competition to not give up without a fight.

But somehow i don't think he is the kind of driver to struggle in one of the mid-field teams when he loses the edge in a few years... it would be fun to see him struggling in every single race though...

i can only dream....

Dino IV · 6 May 2001, 14:30 (Ref:89661)

Quote:

Eero wrote:
Secondly, Schumacher has stated his intention to race on into 2003,2004 at least. Possibly if Williams BMW become a juggernaut next season, and Ferrari slip as much as you suggest, then retirement might become a more appealling option. For now, I just don't see it.

Yep I know he stated that at the beginning of this year. He needs to say that to get the team behind him and create confidence on his position. But he also stated last year he'd quit when the new kids on the block would take over in F1. That indicates he doesn't want to stay around when he's not absolutely sure he'll be the man with the best chances at the WDC. He also stated this year he didn't want to be drawn into contract elongation negotiations before the end of the season. That indicates he's not sure about the current 'new faces', the packing up of the Williams, the tyre war with Michelin and the new shooting stars Montoya, Raikonnen, Alonso even Heidfeld c.s. and that doesn't surprise us simply because nobody knows for sure right now.

This season F1 went from more or less static battlestations between Maranello and Woking with just a development\regulations-war to bother about, to a hard to predict explosive cocktail which might stir things around overnight just as well. For the past few years the top packages were relatively easily defined. For the next half of the season the new regulations, the new drivers, the new tyres, the new cars and new strategies will be so hard to predict you really can't stand to the position 'well we have the biggest can of bucks and are pretty sure we're doing a lot of work for it'. For next season all kinds of new packages will arise and it maybe utter brilliance or simply a lucky shot, someone might come up with an extremely dominant package and you really can't predict that things will come your way.

When you think about it really as a business and you want to take a stand, make a decision for next year you can only conclude that it's almost impossible to tell. We might leave that decision aside, but between now and the next ten races Schumacher has to make a decision and he really wants to know where he stands for that matter. He has a big change of keeping enough points momentum this year to counter any surprise attacks and take the WDC but he wants to be sure he has a fair chance of a dominant position next year as well. Imagine Ferrari promising doing all effort they can, they burn a zillion bucks covering all grounds they can think off and ... are beaten easily by the Michelin-shod teams who are simply unbeatable because the French found some magic polymer.

For instance the F1-2001 isn't a new concept, it's a thorough development of the F1-2000 and that has reached the outer edge of its spectrum. So they need a total new car for next year. McLaren found themself at the end of the MP4/13\14\15-line last year and the 16 was their new car. But next year the development of the 16 into the 17 will be a year ahead in that process. The Williams FW 23 is already in its second year of development and will be totally worked out next year. The tyres are so complicated it's hard to tell as well. Bridgestone is now suffering from the we-supply-all syndrom and really can't focus on 1 team's performance like Michelin does now with Williams. But when i.e. Ferrari makes the quantum leap to Michelin next year, they know they won't be the French primal focus either, but McLaren then will be Bridgestones target team which means tailor-made tyre development. Etcetera etcetera.

So what do you do? How do you keep momentum? How do you make things coming your way? When you have nothing or less to lose you won't make a fuss of being unsure for the year to come and you'll just wait until it does come your way. Schumacher is beyond that in his career. He really can't cope with another two development years like 92\93 and 96\97. Even when he does give in to a 2002 season where he knows his package won't have the best chance for the WDC, is he sure he'll be up there in 2003? Well no, that's even harder to predict as all kinds of new forces are packing up to take over F1 and may cause a stir by then. And he knows that 2003 is another two seasons ahead where he needs to get the Ferrari-squad totally built up, mentally, to run for WC again for the 7th year in a row. That's an awful strain on a team and he knows that effort isn't endless but cyclic. So when you're not certain about 2003 and 2002 isn't looking very very good in advance you have enough doubt to draw a conclusion and think about how to end your career on a high, with a WDC. Schumacher needs and wants to know all these things and my guess is, when he really thinks his package is slipping out of his control, he'll quit.

renaultbel · 6 May 2001, 15:38 (Ref:89682)

TGF is never going to drive for Renult I am sure of that point but for some reason's I cant get Toyota out of my head. And that reason would be the TGF may chose his own WAGE at Toyota. So I am thinking that maybe TGF would go to Toyota for his last year of F1

Dino IV · 6 May 2001, 23:23 (Ref:89796)

Wage is not by any means important. That's something for the not-so-good and the managers to pull out as much cash as possible. Example Eddie Irvine who doubled his wage going to Jaguar. Jaguar was willing to pay any of the topdrivers a zillion quid and more just to drive for them, but nobody went because the package ain't right. For the established topguns only package-improvement counts. They want to get the dominant car for a season and they have no time or energy left to wait for that package to come their way or just linger around for the cash. Hey, this is 2001 but they still have something of pride .. or is that what we call 'ego' today.

Orange · 7 May 2001, 16:15 (Ref:89906)

As far as Ferraris future goes, I see it this way...

In 200(3,4,5???) Marlboro will withdraw all of its Formula 1 sponsorship (read: Ferrari sponsorship) This will coincide with an exhaustion of team momentum, and Ferraris moment in the sun will be over...

Its just a thought...

Wrex · 8 May 2001, 00:11 (Ref:90036)

Quote:

Originally posted by Dino IV
Wage is not by any means important. That's something for the not-so-good and the managers to pull out as much cash as possible. Example Eddie Irvine who doubled his wage going to Jaguar. Jaguar was willing to pay any of the topdrivers a zillion quid and more just to drive for them, but nobody went because the package ain't right.

True Dino, I saw a list somewhere (maybe someone can find it) that showed the drivers salaries, and it was far from an indication of talent or results. It's depends on what the team and drivers expectations are or desperation is at the time.

Quote:

Originally posted by Dino IV
For the established topguns only package-improvement counts. They want to get the dominant car for a season and they have no time or energy left to wait for that package to come their way or just linger around for the cash.

Well Ferrari was far from sorted out when TGF arrived, but I'm sure he was confident of there resources and commitment before signing on the dotted line

Quote:

Originally posted by Orange
In 200(3,4,5???) Marlboro will withdraw all of its Formula 1 sponsorship (read: Ferrari sponsorship) This will coincide with an exhaustion of team momentum, and Ferraris moment in the sun will be over...

You could be right here Orange. Add TGF's retirement & a Williams/Renault resurgence and Ferrari will head downwards. Its very cyclical, What goes up must come down. Williams & McLaren, 2 of the most successful teams, are the perfect examples of that. Nobody can stay at the top forever (thank God!!!

)

Dino IV · 8 May 2001, 10:30 (Ref:90137)

Quote:

Originally posted by Wrex
Well Ferrari was far from sorted out when TGF arrived, but I'm sure he was confident of there resources and commitment before signing on the dotted line.

He could afford to wait around for a three-year campaign in those days. For now, his waiting time's up. So what do you do, sit around with the chance of one or two last seasons which might prove very frustrating or leave on a high note?

Wrex · 8 May 2001, 11:10 (Ref:90146)

I agree Dino - He realistically only has 2 - 4 years left, and he's not going to build a team for someone else. He will just chase the money and/or the fastest seat from here on out - as he should.

Red · 8 May 2001, 13:17 (Ref:90204)

Quote:

Originally posted by Dino IV

He needs to say that to get the team behind him and create confidence on his position. But he also stated last year he'd quit when the new kids on the block would take over in F1.

Dino, I do believe that the team is already fully behind him! No questions about that. I guess that the question is not whether Schumacher will move to another team or not. What he has achieved at Ferrari (I mean a team, his team) he will never achieve somewhere else. And one has to consider that he’ll be 34 in 2003. The big problem is that Schumacher did not say he’d drive until 2004. He only said that he couldn’t see a reason as to why he wouldn’t drive until he’s 40. So, if he’d quit only when the new kids on the block would take over... I guess I know what he means! Seriously, my impression is that he will retire after 2005 season. A decade driving Ferraris. He may not win every title, but definitely those seasons will be far from "very frustrating".

PS: Salary? Is this really his problem? Is he concerned that Ferrari won’t give him a raise if he’d ask? Nah...

PPS: Marlboro will withdraw in 2007, like every other tobacco company. The money they bring are very well welcomed, but they are not all their budget. I don’t see a problem here, let alone “their moment in the sun is over”

Dino IV · 9 May 2001, 03:24 (Ref:90584)

Quote:

Originally posted by Wrex
I agree Dino - He realistically only has 2 - 4 years left, and he's not going to build a team for someone else. He will just chase the money and/or the fastest seat from here on out - as he should.

You agree with me and give him 2-4 years left???
I thought I stated he'd quit at the end of this year ...

Quote:

Originally posted by Red
I do believe that the team is already fully behind him!

Yes ofcourse, but how do you think they'd feel about the future when he'd stated the opposite? There would be unsecurity and a lot of unrest about who would be the new driver next year. By saying that he created stability and that's well done ofcourse.