Who Will Win the 2024 Championships?

[TrapezeArtist]

I was just musing a little on the prospects for McLaren and Lando Norris after the Dutch GP.

McLaren gained 12 points on Red Bull and Lando gained 8 points on Max. On recent form that doesn't look like a freakish result, so what if it is repeated in the remaining 9 races?

Currently (pre-Monza), RB lead McLaren by 30 points. 9 x 12 = 108, so it looks entirely feasible that McLaren could win the Constructor's Championship if they can keep scoring even modestly more than RB.

Max has a 70 point lead over Lando. 9 x 8 = 72, so a continuous repeat of Zandvoort would see Lando win the Driver's Championship at the last round. It's pretty inconceivable to think that Max won't win any more races this year though. On the other hand he could have one or two bad results too. Personally I think Max will win it, but it could possibly be by a smaller margin than the 7 points that Lando conceded in Hungary. In that case Andrea Stella will have enough egg on his face to make a giant omelette and two of Max's four championships will be seriously tarnished by the gifts he has been given by Michael Massi and Team Papaya.

[BTCC frog]

McLaren winning the WCC is starting to look something of a foregone conclusion. At 26 years since 1998, I believe it would be the longest drought in history, for teams that entered continuously. It seems crazy that they didn't win between 1999 and 2012 when consistently being second or third, but since then they have had the drop into the midfield of 2013, the total disaster of the Honda engine in 2015, slipping to the back of the midfield despite ditching Honda in 2018, and then after a brief revival, slipping back into the midfield in 2022. Imagine being told after McLaren's awful start to the 2023 season that just one year later they would be favourites for the 2024 world championship. I also like that after all the years of Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull dominating, with 2018 the most extreme example, the rest have still been left well behind and only McLaren have bridged the gap, and then moved right to the front.

For the drivers' title, Max Verstappen still has to be clear favourite, but Monza qualifying showed why it isn't over yet. I agree that it is unreasonable to expect Lando Norris to win every race for the remainder of the season if Verstappen is able to come second each time, but if McLaren do have a clear car advantage then Oscar Piastri should be able to finish second a lot, and if Mercedes and Ferrari can get between them like they have done this weekend, Verstappen could begin to hemorrhage a lot of points to Norris. Also, while Verstappen is practically perfect when leading in a dominant car, he is susceptible to making mistakes under pressure when battling faster cars, which is likely to be the position he is in for the remainder of 2024.

If it does come down to those seven crucial points then McLaren will look silly, but it won't tarnish Verstappen's title in the way that Abu Dhabi 2021 did at all. This is just a case of his rival making an error, like Mercedes with the zero sidepods in 2022, or Vettel repeatedly spinning and crashing in 2018. It isn't even bad luck like Alonso at Spa 2012, it is just a team decision that backfired.

In reality, I think that if Verstappen just scrapes the title this year, it will make it his finest yet, and depending on the circumstances of the last nine races, could be one of the greatest we've ever seen. Because that would mean he has won the title against the second-best driver on the grid right now in Lando Norris, in a car that was clearly inferior for over half the season, and only really had an advantage in four races (Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Japan, China). The run of races from Miami to Austria is too close to call between the McLaren and Red Bull, but since Silverstone I think that McLaren have held the advantage, and that advantage is growing. Yet Verstappen has barely lost any points to Norris and has beaten him almost every race through superior strategy and driving. In Silverstone, he was far slower than Norris but got the strategy right every time and beat him to second, while Spain was down to his superior racecraft, and the luck element balanced out in Miami and Canada. For Norris to close down Verstappen now, he will probably have to have the car advantage of Zandvoort for the rest of the season, and so if Verstappen holds him off it will be one of the great title victories. Either way, if Norris can take it to the final race it will make 2024 a classic season, and nobody saw that one coming.

[Teretonga]

Originally Posted by BTCC frog

McLaren winning the WCC is starting to look something of a foregone conclusion. At 26 years since 1998, I believe it would be the longest drought in history, for teams that entered continuously. It seems crazy that they didn't win between 1999 and 2012 when consistently being second or third, but since then they have had the drop into the midfield of 2013, the total disaster of the Honda engine in 2015, slipping to the back of the midfield despite ditching Honda in 2018, and then after a brief revival, slipping back into the midfield in 2022. Imagine being told after McLaren's awful start to the 2023 season that just one year later they would be favourites for the 2024 world championship. I also like that after all the years of Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull dominating, with 2018 the most extreme example, the rest have still been left well behind and only McLaren have bridged the gap, and then moved right to the front.

For the drivers' title, Max Verstappen still has to be clear favourite, but Monza qualifying showed why it isn't over yet. I agree that it is unreasonable to expect Lando Norris to win every race for the remainder of the season if Verstappen is able to come second each time, but if McLaren do have a clear car advantage then Oscar Piastri should be able to finish second a lot, and if Mercedes and Ferrari can get between them like they have done this weekend, Verstappen could begin to hemorrhage a lot of points to Norris. Also, while Verstappen is practically perfect when leading in a dominant car, he is susceptible to making mistakes under pressure when battling faster cars, which is likely to be the position he is in for the remainder of 2024.

If it does come down to those seven crucial points then McLaren will look silly, but it won't tarnish Verstappen's title in the way that Abu Dhabi 2021 did at all. This is just a case of his rival making an error, like Mercedes with the zero sidepods in 2022, or Vettel repeatedly spinning and crashing in 2018. It isn't even bad luck like Alonso at Spa 2012, it is just a team decision that backfired.

In reality, I think that if Verstappen just scrapes the title this year, it will make it his finest yet, and depending on the circumstances of the last nine races, could be one of the greatest we've ever seen. Because that would mean he has won the title against the second-best driver on the grid right now in Lando Norris, in a car that was clearly inferior for over half the season, and only really had an advantage in four races (Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Japan, China). The run of races from Miami to Austria is too close to call between the McLaren and Red Bull, but since Silverstone I think that McLaren have held the advantage, and that advantage is growing. Yet Verstappen has barely lost any points to Norris and has beaten him almost every race through superior strategy and driving. In Silverstone, he was far slower than Norris but got the strategy right every time and beat him to second, while Spain was down to his superior racecraft, and the luck element balanced out in Miami and Canada. For Norris to close down Verstappen now, he will probably have to have the car advantage of Zandvoort for the rest of the season, and so if Verstappen holds him off it will be one of the great title victories. Either way, if Norris can take it to the final race it will make 2024 a classic season, and nobody saw that one coming.

I think the WCC is actually a lot wider open than just McLaren.
Ferrari have scored good points since the mid-year break and the form at Monza and Zandvoort was above Mercedes which was on a par with RBR.
So, while Mclaren has good speed it is not a foregone conclusion that they are the only team with a chance of overcoming RBR in the WCC.

The only issue is will they actually slow each other down by taking points away from each other?

[Skam85]

Originally Posted by TrapezeArtist

two of Max's four championships will be seriously tarnished by the gifts he has been given by Michael Massi and Team Papaya.

good lord

[bathurst77]

One things is for sure Lando cant win if Oscar refuses to play rear gunner for the rest of the year.

[Aysedasi]

Originally Posted by bathurst77

One things is for sure Lando cant win if Oscar refuses to play rear gunner for the rest of the year.

Was he even asked? Strategy should have been clearly set by the team before the race. I was astonished to see Oscar attack Lando into the second chicane on L1, a move that if Lando had resisted a bit harder, could have left them both sitting in the run-off or the kitty-litter. Yeah it's great to have team mates racing each other, but the team needs to have the gonads to ensure that Norris can actually fight a clearly demoralised Verstappen. Once that becomes mathematically impossible, then fair enough, it's gloves off.

[ljakse]

Originally Posted by Aysedasi

I was astonished to see Oscar attack Lando into the second chicane on L1

And equally amazed that they didn't swap places in the last lap (or two)

While the difference in performance yesterday made me believe there is a tiny chance for Lando to take the title, McLaren's "handling of the situation" is proving me wrong.

[BTCC frog]

Originally Posted by bathurst77

One things is for sure Lando cant win if Oscar refuses to play rear gunner for the rest of the year.

I agree, it is so frustrating to watch. But Norris hasn’t shown any animosity towards Piastri post-race which suggests what he did was entirely within the ‘Papaya Rules’. So McLaren are actively choosing not to support Norris’ title bid the best way possible at this point in the season, which is crazy because it is absolutely a possibility that he can win it.

[TrapezeArtist]

Originally Posted by BTCC frog

I agree, it is so frustrating to watch. But Norris hasn’t shown any animosity towards Piastri post-race which suggests what he did was entirely within the ‘Papaya Rules’. So McLaren are actively choosing not to support Norris’ title bid the best way possible at this point in the season, which is crazy because it is absolutely a possibility that he can win it.

I can only guess that Papaya Rules means "don't crash", but I think it would be helpful if someone from McLaren told us. OTOH perhaps they are being deliberately obscure in order to not give information to other teams.

In my heart I admire McLaren for allowing their drivers to race, so if Lando wins the WDC he can clearly claim to have beaten everyone including his teammate. But no other team in recent history has taken it to this extreme, so my head tells me that McLaren are deliberately throwing away the chance of Lando winning the championship.

[TrapezeArtist]

So, a little update after Monza.

This time around McLaren gained 22 points on Red Bull, reducing the deficit to just 8 points. For the rest of the races they now only need to beat RB by 1+ points to lift the constructors championship. On current form that looks easily do-able.

Lando gained 8 points on Max, which puts him just about on-target the win the championship, although it is still a pretty big ask. If McLaren had decided after the summer break that they should throw their weight behind Lando's championship prospects, the gap would now be 52 points instead of 62 and Lando would need to outscore Max by an average of 7 points to be the champion.

There is one fly in McLaren's ointment, and that is Ferrari. Post-Italy, their gap to Red Bull is 39 points and to McLaren it's 31 points. That leaves them needing to outscore RB by an average of 5 points per race and Team Papaya by 4 points per race. However despite their apparent domination at Monza they only outscored McLaren by 3 points there, and the uncharacteristically lacklustre Red Bull by 25. Given the tiny time gaps at the moment in F1 it is not impossible that Ferrari could do it, but I think it's unlikely.

[Plantagenet]

Originally Posted by TrapezeArtist

However despite their apparent domination at Monza they only outscored McLaren by 3 points there, and the uncharacteristically lacklustre Red Bull by 25.

Sorry - don't want to be too pedantic by picking on a single sentence, but personally don't think they dominated. They qualified behind both McLarens and would both have likely finished the race behind them within the disparity in tyre strategy.

Don't get me wrong, I love the fact that the teams are so close. It's just such a shame that the season was so one-sided to start.

Personally think constructors will be 1. Mclaren, 2. Ferrari, 3. Redbull....and I think it entirely plausible that Perez's poor performances could account for the difference between 3 and 1.

[GTRMagic]

Originally Posted by BTCC frog

I agree, it is so frustrating to watch. But Norris hasn’t shown any animosity towards Piastri post-race which suggests what he did was entirely within the ‘Papaya Rules’. So McLaren are actively choosing not to support Norris’ title bid the best way possible at this point in the season, which is crazy because it is absolutely a possibility that he can win it.

Not frustrating from here

McLaren needs Red Bull to keep tilting at windmills in fixing their car.
If you believe the media, Mr Verstappen has pinpointed the cause
And the soon-to-be-former Newey-ites will no doubt build an expensive and effective upgrade… that Mr Perez still can’t use effectively

WDC is likely for Mr Verstappen
WCC is maybe a 3 way fight with Ferrari, Red Bull & McLaren

[S griffin]

I think it's still a bit of a long shot for McLaren. They need to have perfect weekends till the end of the year. And they are not doing that atm. That said, Max is in real danger of losing the title with the current performance of the car

[S griffin]

I expect McLaren to beat RBR in the constructors championship. However it will be trickier for Lando to win the drivers title. He’s not gaining by enough and we’re running out of races.

Ferrari are quick, but inconsistent, however they seem to have on top of things of late. That will make McLaren’s job harder

[Teretonga]

The discussion on this question is usually missing the 3 sprints that are to be raced over this section of the season.
So, there are actually11 races to be run in order to complete the season.
Each sprint race doesn't have a pit stop but it does have a start. Their are 8 points up for the win of a sprint race.

If Lando is really in the fastest car and around the front row, then he has 11 opportunities to either win or lose the start of each one of those events.
How that plays out will make a significant difference to to the likelihood of Lando winning the WDC.

If he wins a couple of sprints, then that will make a huge dent in his deficit to Max if Max can't place his car in the first 6. That would mean a deficit of 12 points has disappeared.
So, it is down to a whole lot less over the remaining 8 GPs and the third sprint race.

It is still too far away to be maximizing Lando's points, particularly in light of the up and down nature of his performances.

Austria was a bad issue and lost Lando a good haul of points that lay on pit lane after the collision.
Subsequent races like Silverstone were a good haul but Hungary was a race where pace was poor against Piastri, as was Spa. Zandvoort was outstanding and pole at Monza was great but after Piastri passed him Lando was simply not able to stay with Piastri despite having opyions to undercut him.

If Mclaren had swapped Lando and Piastri at Monza what would be the rationale?
Piastri was trying to catch Leclerc, so the pressure was on Ferrari, and Lando struggled to get by Carlos so was it an option? No.

If putting Lando in priority on the finishing order is part of the strategy then it only works if Lando is on the pace, holds down strong pace and is actually leading Piastri or they have a race dominated and the room and willingness for Piastri to sacrifice a position for Lando where there is a clear advantage over the rest of the field and only towards the end of a race.

If we get to Abu Dhabi and Piastri is in front of Lando and they swap places because it means Lando gets the WDC by a couple of points, then great. Very gracious of Piastri.
But the title is Lando's to win, if he is good enough.
And he would want to win it on merit, not be gifted places over the final 6 or 7 GP's.

What would happen if McLaren neutered Piastri and as a result they lost the WCC to Ferrari (not RBR) by 4 or 5 points, when clearly, stacking as many points as they can between now and Abu Dhabi is the team's priority.

There are 232 points going over the next 8 venues for first places and fastest laps.
8 GP's, 8 fastest laps, and 3 sprint race wins. If Lando wants to win a WDC he has plenty of opportunity, but he has to win races, including beating his teammate to do it.

Anything less would be an empty cup.

[BTCC frog]

Originally Posted by Teretonga

It is still too far away to be maximizing Lando's points, particularly in light of the up and down nature of his performances.

Austria was a bad issue and lost Lando a good haul of points that lay on pit lane after the collision.

Subsequent races like Silverstone were a good haul but Hungary was a race where pace was poor against Piastri, as was Spa. Zandvoort was outstanding and pole at Monza was great but after Piastri passed him Lando was simply not able to stay with Piastri despite having opyions to undercut him.

If Mclaren had swapped Lando and Piastri at Monza what would be the rationale?
Piastri was trying to catch Leclerc, so the pressure was on Ferrari, and Lando struggled to get by Carlos so was it an option? No.

If putting Lando in priority on the finishing order is part of the strategy then it only works if Lando is on the pace, holds down strong pace and is actually leading Piastri or they have a race dominated and the room and willingness for Piastri to sacrifice a position for Lando where there is a clear advantage over the rest of the field and only towards the end of a race.

If we get to Abu Dhabi and Piastri is in front of Lando and they swap places because it means Lando gets the WDC by a couple of points, then great. Very gracious of Piastri.
But the title is Lando's to win, if he is good enough.
And he would want to win it on merit, not be gifted places over the final 6 or 7 GP's.

What would happen if McLaren neutered Piastri and as a result they lost the WCC to Ferrari (not RBR) by 4 or 5 points, when clearly, stacking as many points as they can between now and Abu Dhabi is the team's priority.

There are 232 points going over the next 8 venues for first places and fastest laps.
8 GP's, 8 fastest laps, and 3 sprint race wins. If Lando wants to win a WDC he has plenty of opportunity, but he has to win races, including beating his teammate to do it.

Anything less would be an empty cup.

I don't think Norris was struggling for pace against Piastri in either Hungary or Monza. Piastri had track position because his racecraft is better, and Norris was effectively matching him. In Hungary, Norris was faster, in fact. But while there was no opportunity to swap the McLarens while they were chasing Leclerc in Monza, once they were exiting the Parabolica on the final lap and it was clear that Leclerc had won, the call could have been made.

I agree that the WCC is just as important and needs to be secured but swapping the drivers in either Monza or Hungary would not have affected the championship results. In fact, arguably a number one and two policy would have helped because if Piastri hadn't gone for the move on Norris on lap one then they would have run 1-2 rather than 1-3, because Leclerc also passed Norris as a result. It only affects the constructors' title if Piastri were to lose motivation and have more off-days, and he doesn't seem like that type of driver.

Also, I don't think Norris would see it as 'not winning on merit' if Piastri had helped him out a few times. Perez does that for Verstappen, as did Bottas for Hamilton, Massa for Alonso, Webber for Vettel (unwillingly) and Barrichello for Schumacher. There is nothing unusual about it in modern F1.

[Tourer]

Originally Posted by BTCC frog

Also, I don't think Norris would see it as 'not winning on merit' if Piastri had helped him out a few times. Perez does that for Verstappen, as did Bottas for Hamilton, Massa for Alonso, Webber for Vettel (unwillingly) and Barrichello for Schumacher. There is nothing unusual about it in modern F1.

Except that it isn't winning on merit if the only competitor in the field with the same machinery as you is lying down and gifting you the win (or position). It is why for me personally some of the WDC from the drivers you mention are seriously devalued (particularly Schumacher and Hamilton).

If Lando was to win the WDC this year (unlikely with or without team orders) then it should be SO much sweeter and MUCH more special if he beat his team mate in the process, with no assistance from team orders - now THAT would be worthy of a British Racing Green cover for Autosport!

[TrapezeArtist]

Originally Posted by Tourer

Except that it isn't winning on merit if the only competitor in the field with the same machinery as you is lying down and gifting you the win (or position). It is why for me personally some of the WDC from the drivers you mention are seriously devalued (particularly Schumacher and Hamilton).

If Lando was to win the WDC this year (unlikely with or without team orders) then it should be SO much sweeter and MUCH more special if he beat his team mate in the process, with no assistance from team orders - now THAT would be worthy of a British Racing Green cover for Autosport!

Far from being gifted points from team orders, so far Lando has lost 7 points from team orders (Hungary).

[Tourer]

Originally Posted by TrapezeArtist

Far from being gifted points from team orders, so far Lando has lost 7 points from team orders (Hungary).

He also received car updates before Oscar, plus was given better strategies than Oscar during races earlier in the year (or even more recently - remember Silverstone?). Don't know how many points that adds up to but Oscar didn't quibble about it as the team asked him to "take one for the team". We all tend to focus on Hungary because Lando quibbled, & quibbled, & quibbled, & quibbled when asked to do (for the first time) what his team mate had already done for him on a number of occasions this year.

Anyway - my point was about a situation from now onwards IF the team decide to favour Lando during races so that he might be WDC.

[Teretonga]

Originally Posted by TrapezeArtist

Far from being gifted points from team orders, so far Lando has lost 7 points from team orders (Hungary).

How many did he lose in Austria?
Had he settled for second in Austria he would be 3 points closer to Max.
He retired in Austria and Max finished 5th (10 points).
Had he finished Lando would have earned 18 points and Max would have 25, a difference of 7.
But retiring and Max finishing 5th put him a further 10 points behind, so he'd have been actually another 3 points closer than he now, and McLaren would be leading the WCC already

When people dither over the fact the team 'cost him' seven points in Hungary they're ignoring the fact that Lando may be more conscious of the point gap created by not settling for 2nd in Austria.

No driver wants to lose a win when he thinks he has a chance but if you are going to look back in Hindsight about a particular result look at the whole season in retrospect, not just one individual result.
There was a clear team plan in Hungary and McLaren had the strength of character to not dip back on the promise to Piastri.
The same may happen in one of the 11 starts left they have this season.
If people want to start evaluating the season, wait until its finished before they start lambasting the team or Piastri.

As I have said before, the title is Lando's to win. To do that he has to lift his overall consistency and performance. That means to win more races, consistently race well, keep his nose out of trouble and finish well.

There is plenty of opportunity to do that in the races left to run.

[Teretonga]

Originally Posted by BTCC frog

I don't think Norris was struggling for pace against Piastri in either Hungary or Monza. Piastri had track position because his racecraft is better, and Norris was effectively matching him. In Hungary, Norris was faster, in fact. But while there was no opportunity to swap the McLarens while they were chasing Leclerc in Monza, once they were exiting the Parabolica on the final lap and it was clear that Leclerc had won, the call could have been made.

I agree that the WCC is just as important and needs to be secured but swapping the drivers in either Monza or Hungary would not have affected the championship results. In fact, arguably a number one and two policy would have helped because if Piastri hadn't gone for the move on Norris on lap one then they would have run 1-2 rather than 1-3, because Leclerc also passed Norris as a result. It only affects the constructors' title if Piastri were to lose motivation and have more off-days, and he doesn't seem like that type of driver.

Also, I don't think Norris would see it as 'not winning on merit' if Piastri had helped him out a few times. Perez does that for Verstappen, as did Bottas for Hamilton, Massa for Alonso, Webber for Vettel (unwillingly) and Barrichello for Schumacher. There is nothing unusual about it in modern F1.

I don't disagree with what you said about the WCC on past results but I'm not talking about the past but focused on the future, the rest of the season.
I don't think Piastri would become unmotivated either, but he needs to feel that he has something to race for, and if it's just following Lando, put a robot in the car.

The WDC is a long shot, the WCC is important to McLaren financially and reputationally.
They should win it, unless a real three-way battle between RBR, Ferrari and McLaren becomes a reality.
That would be interesting.

On merit really means Lando has to show he can win it by simply outdriving everyone else, including Piastri.

At the moment he has a great race, then an average race or two then another great race, and Piastri seems to raise his game when Lando is having a slower day, so they alternate. But that will not win Lando the title, and if the team tries to slow Piastri in order to defer to Lando, that is simply not good enough.

Lando has to match Piastri, at the very least, on Oscar's good days, or he doesn't deserve the title.
If he match's Oscar and then they ask him to defer, that helps Lando, but anything less from Lando is not fair to Oscar.

[Skam85]

Just some stats on the title fight:

232 points on offer for the remaining races.

To win the driver's championship:
Norris must outscore Max by 8pts per race
Leclerc - 11pts
Piastri - 14pts
Sainz - 15pts
Hamilton - 18pts

While Russell and Perez are still mathematically a chance, nobody really cares.

The remainder of the field can now no longer mathematically win the 2024 WDC.

[chavez]

Originally Posted by Skam85

The remainder of the field can now no longer mathematically win the 2024 WDC.

Mathematically Heinz-Harald Frentzen couldn't beat Michael Schumacher to second going into the last round of the '97 World Championship, but somehow did.

Points can be lost, as well as won.

[S griffin]

Norris just needs to avoid mistakes. Piastri will probably have to take one for the team now and again. But with Ferrari up there it will be harder. RBR will probably lose the constructors title and McLaren are probably happy with their points haul. I'd still say Norris has the upper hand of the two McLaren drivers atm

Really the gap is still big at the top of the drivers' title, even with RBR's struggles.

[broadrun96]

It's simple, the title will come down to Latifi and Sargent in the last round winner take all