[LM24] The 2021 Annual Le Mans Prediction Thread

[PascaLM]

Here we go for the Ten-Tenths predictions contest of the 24 Hours of Le Mans 2021.

Past winners:
2008 - cptkablamo
2009 - PascaLM
2010 - isynge
2011 - Joe Taylor
2012 - Duff_44
2014 - Truckosaurus
2015 - TRspitfirefan
2016 - vincegail
2017 - Babapapa
2018 - bentley03 and joeb
2019 - nasdriv87
2020 - Adam43*

New this year :
No prediction about LMP2 or GTE due to a lack of diversity and novelty (only C8.R).
I have slightly BoPed the calculations (yes, a BoP). There is less difference between the maximum numbers of points you can gain in each item : 100 for the pole, 80 for the laps, 120 for the podium. The points distribution is larger. If you are far from the pole or the laps, you get more points than in previous years. 100 points for the exact pole and linearly down to 0 within a delta of 4 seconds. 80 points for the exact laps number down to 0 within a delta of 40 laps (deltas in absolute value).
And errr, and, and errr.... the highest speed during the race in mph or kph as you want. 50 points max.

So you are cordially invited to record your answers to the following :

1. LMH Hyperpole – time only – to nearest thousandth
e.g.
3:41.442
If the track is declared wet during this entire LMH Hyperpole session, we will consider the best lap of all other qualification sessions.

2. Highest speed in the Hunaudières, restaurant, during the race, to nearest tenth
e.g. 251.8 mph
A radar is usually posted there. The speed will be the WEC's official result. We consider 1 mph = 1.609 kph.

3. Overall winner, second and third – car #'s and laps completed by the winner only
e.g.
1. Oreca #32 – 312 laps
2. Oreca #26
3. Toyota #7

Scoring :
pole time :
100 - (25 x |pole-prediction|), i.e if you are one second and 908 thousands from the pole, you get 52.3 points.
0 point if |pole-prediction|> 4 seconds

Highest speed :
50 - (2.5 x |speed_kph - prediction|)
0 point if |speed-prediction| > 20 km/h (12.43 mph). You can give your prediction in mph or kph. All speed predictions will be convert in kph for calculation.

Podium : you can have points if you choose a car of the final podium in an other position

	predicted 1st	predicted 2nd	predicted 3rd
winner	60 points	30 points	15 points
2nd	20 points	40 points	20 points
3rd	5 pts	10 points	20 points

Winner's laps
80 - (2 x |laps-prediction|) and 0 point if |laps-prediction|>40 laps

You can criticize this points system or give some suggestions but please after this year results are published.

Please respect some rules :

1. No surplus comments, no funnies, no additions – just your predictions. We will remove anything else that you add !

2. No amendments are permitted unless you can satisfy us that you made a genuine mistake or if one of the cars included in your prediction is withdrawn before race start.

3. Any queries about the competition to PascaLM or Aysedasi by PM please.

4. The competition will close at 9 pm (UK time) on Tuesday 17th August and the thread will be closed too.

5. Let's thank again Adam43 for having lead a simple and perfect competition last year.

N.B. This is just a bit of fun which we do each year and it is not intended to replace or supplant any other regular predictions competition.

[PascaLM]

3:43.935

205.2 mph

Oreca #82 - 365 laps
Oreca #38
Toyota #7

[GT6]

ok here goes

Pole time, 3.21,000

Highest speed on Mulsanne 207 mph

Winner toyota no 7 391 laps
2nd Glickenhaus 709
3rd Jota 38

[Aysedasi]

1. LMH Hyperpole – 3:23.244


2. Highest speed in the Hunaudières - 209.40 mph


3. Overall winner, second and third –

1. Toyota #7 – 384 laps
2. Aurus #26
3. Glickenhaus #708

[eps]

1. LMH Hyperpole – 3:26.899


2. Highest speed on the Hunaudières - 210.60 mph


3. Overall winner, second and third –

1. Toyota #7 – 390 laps
2. Toyota #8
3. United Autosports #22

[joeb]

3:25.147


207.295 mph


Toyota #7 - 372 laps
Alpine #36
Oreca #22

[PascaLM]

3:27.200

333.6 km/h

Toyota #8 387
"Alpine" #36
Oreca-Gibson #22

[TF110]

3:25.6

346.8kmh

1. Toyota #7 - 377 laps
2. Toyota #8
3. Alpine #36

[WyldStallion]

Overall: LMP2 class winner
GTE : #51 AF Corse Ferrari (not betting against Pier Guidi right now)


Ayse edit - This needs to be removed or edited as it does not follow the rules.
Pascal edit - This will be ignored

[canaglia]

3:26.5

340 kmh

1. alpine #36 370 laps
2. united autosport #22
3. toyota #7

[Hawkwood]

1.
3:24.444

2.
212.000mph

3.
1. Alpine #36 – 366 laps
2. Glickenhaus #708
3. Aurus #26

[gert]

3:27.666

334.7 km/h

Alpine #36 -- 373 laps
Oreca-Gibson #41
Aurus-Gibson #26

[whitemr2]

3.27.155

337.2 km/u

1 #7 - 371 laps
2 #708
3 #8

[Adam43]

3:24.663

208.7 mph

Toyota #7 - 369 laps
Toyota #8
Alpine #36

[whitemr2]

Originally Posted by whitemr2

3.27.155

337.2 km/u

1 #7
2 #708
3 #8

Total laps added 371

[Lutzvic]

3:27.012

341 km/h

1. Alpine
2. Toyota 7
3. Toyota 8


(EDIT - PM sent for number of laps by winner - Ayse).

[J Jay]

LM Hyperpole

3:24.807

Hunadières Top Speed (Race)

342.5 km/h

Overall Podium (& Winning Laps)

1st - #7 Toyota (368 laps)
2nd - #22 Oreca/Gibson
3rd - #36 Alpine

[greenmachinets040]

LM Hyperpole

3:26:840

Hunadières Top Speed (Race)

334,5 km/h

Overall Podium (& Winning Laps)

1st - #7 Toyota (375 laps)
2nd - #8 Toyota
3rd - #23 United Autosports

[Toyotats03OUS]

LM Hyperpole

3:25:18

344 km/h

1st. Toyota # 7. (373 laps )
2nd. Toyota #8
3rd. Some lmp2 car

[Truckosaurus]

1. 3:21:00

2. 333.33kmh

3. First - Toyota Nbr 8 - 375 laps
2eme - United Autosports Oreca LMP2 - Nbr 22
III - Glickenhaus Nbr 709

[PascaLM]

Predictions have been entered, the thread is now closed.
I will publish the results on Tuesday.

Thank you, enjoy the week.

[Aysedasi]

As always, many thanks for this Pascal, much appreciated.

[PascaLM]

The winner is :
Adam43
for the second time in a row !

Podium

_______ _______	_______ _______	_______ _______
Toyotats03OUS	Adam43	TF110
2nd	1st	3rd

Pole Prediction Prize

Winner :Hawkwood

Prediction	03:24.444
Actual Pole	03:23.900

Podium Prediction Prize

Adam43 and TF110 gave the exact final podium

Laps Prediction Prize

whitemr2 gave the exact number of laps made by the Toyota #7 : 371

Speed Prediction Prize

eps gave the closest highest speed

Prediction	338.85 km/h
Actual Speed	339.1 km/h

Points :

Member	Hyperpole	Winner	2nd Place	3rd Place	Laps	Speed	TOTAL
Adam43	80.925	60	40	20	76	41.725	318.65
Toyotats03OUS	68	60	40	0	76	37.75	281.75
TF110	57.5	60	40	20	68	30.75	276.25
J Jay	77.325	60	0	20	74	41.5	272.825
joeb	68.825	60	10	0	78	36.092	252.918
Aysedasi	83.6	60	0	0	54	44.56	242.16
greenmachinets040	26.5	60	40	0	72	38.5	237
whitemr2	18.625	60	0	20	80	45.25	223.875
eps	25.025	60	40	0	42	49.388	216.413
Hawkwood	86.4	5	0	0	70	44.98	206.38
Canaglia	35	5	0	15	78	47.75	180.75
GT6	27.5	60	0	0	40	34.907	162.408
Truckosaurus	27.5	20	0	0	72	35.575	155.075
PascaLM	17.5	20	10	0	48	36.25	131.75
gert	5.85	5	0	0	76	39	125.85
Lutzvic	22.2	5	30	20	0	45.25	122.45

16 entries :

Member	Hyperpole	Winning Car	No	Laps	2nd Place	No	3rd Place	No	Max speed (km/h)
GT6	3:21.000	Toyota	7	391	Glickenhaus	709	Jota	38	333.063
Aysedasi	3:23.244	Toyota	7	384	Aurus	26	Glickenhaus	708	336.924
eps	3:26.899	Toyota	7	390	Toyota	8	United	22	338.855
joeb	3:25.147	Toyota	7	372	Alpine	36	United	22	333.537
PascaLM	3:27.200	Toyota	8	387	Alpine	36	United	22	333.6
TF110	3:25.600	Toyota	7	377	Toyota	8	Alpine	36	346.8
Canaglia	3:26.500	Alpine	36	370	United	22	Toyota	7	340
Hawkwood	3:24.444	Alpine	36	366	Glickenhaus	708	Aurus	26	341.108
gert	3:27.666	Alpine	36	373	WRT	41	Aurus	26	334.7
whitemr2	3:27.155	Toyota	7	371	Glickenhaus	708	Toyota	8	337.2
Adam43	3:24.663	Toyota	7	369	Toyota	8	Alpine	36	335.79
Lutzvic	3:27.012	Alpine	36	-	Toyota	7	Toyota	8	341
J Jay	3:24.807	Toyota	7	368	United	22	Alpine	36	342.5
greenmachinets040	3:26.840	Toyota	7	375	Toyota	8	United	23	334.5
Toyotats03OUS	3:25.180	Toyota	7	373	Toyota	8	-	-	344
Truckosaurus	3:21.000	Toyota	8	375	United	22	Glickenhaus	709	333.33

[Truckosaurus]

Well organised Pascal, thank you as always.

Well done too to the winners, and those who got each category correct.

As always, I am just relieved not to be last

[GT6]

Yes thanks for doing the prediction competition again Pascal, just like Guy i am happy not to be last.