Forecasting points at the end of the season

[Schummy]

Knowing current point scores and average per GP, we can make some forecasting about how approximately the season will end.

Just by now no significant trends are apparent respecting teams improving or declining (there are some indications but I don't see them significant). So it is a easy calculation to do: there are 8 GPs until the end, multiplying by average points per race we will get an approx to the amount of points a driver could add to his current total.

Driver Current Average Forecast
MS       90      9.0    162.0  
RB       68      6.8    122.4  
JB       48      4.8     86.4  
JT       46      4.6     82.8  
FA       33      3.3     59.4  
JPM      25      2.5     45.0  
TS       14      1.4     25.2

Obviously no surprises because we are just extrapolating current points, but one can see the relative expected difference between them.

Basically, positions are almost decided, except third position for Button or Trulli. Perhaps FA, JPM and TS can do some heroic perfomances and do some permutations between them.

My *subjective* guess for WDC is MS - RB - JB - JT - FA - JPM - TS, i.e. I think (sadly) possibly there will not be changes, but, as said formerly, two or three positions still can change.

Frankly speaking I don't see any more changes as likely, except for wisful-thinking (that I have, BTW )

All this could change in some measure if any significant trend arises (for example Ferrari declining, Williams recovering, etc). But with just 8 GP ahead time is runing short even for deciding 2nd position in WDC.

In terms of teams WC, the three first positions are pretty well delimited. The only possibility is if BAR can improve even more (e.g. improving reliability in Sato's car) or Renault going through a dip in perfomance, i.e. some new trend.

Ferrari 284.4
Renault 142.2
BAR 111.6

Williams is too far and moreover they now have problems with the second seat. McLaren can and must improve but they are massively short in points.