[Official] Round 11 - Belgian Grand Prix (merged)

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Please add to Frostie's thread when he gets his previews up!

The resumption of the Formula One season after the summer break will see 9 races take place in a little over three months. Fast and furious action then, much like what we should expect in Belgium this weekend.

After three and a half weeks of staring at the latest silly drivers market rumours, I am delighted to be able to actually write somethig that is not pure speculation or guesswork. The Belgian Grand Prix will take place this coming weekend, and there will be racing. Good racing.

The first big question that needs answering at Spa is the one posed in the tortoise and the hare approaches taken by the challenging teams. Mercedes have slowly dragged themselves into contention, following a series of races where they have looked superb pace-wise, but inconsistent tyre-wise. Arguably the quickest car on a single lap on Saturdays, this won't benefit either Lewis or Nico particularly well, should either of them take top spot in qualifying. The relative ease in overtaking at Spa-Francorchamps should see the Red Bulls be the dominant car this weekend.

The 'tortoise' approach I'm referring to, is the one taken by Lotus. Yet again, in Hungary, Kimi Raikkonen went for the strategy of spending less time in the pits, and while this netted him second place on that occasion, it is only thanks to the nature of the Hungaroring. Such a tactic will fail at Spa. A conservative approach, trying to eke the tyres out in the last few laps, will only send the Lotuses spiralling down the order, should they try it on the sweeping, high speed Belgian circuit.

Ferrari's recent fall from the top to 4th or 5th fastest team will also be in the spotlight this weekend. A dismal performance at Spa will incur the wrath of the Italian media and public ahead of their home race at Monza, with the pressure rising in particular on Fernando Alonso, Felipe Massa & Stefano Domenicalli for their perceived lack of performance. It is the relationship between the Scuderia and Fernando Alonso that is under intense scrutiny at the moment, with Alonso referring to himself on Twitter as a 'insulted warrior', and Montezemelo warning that 'Drivers come and go, Ferrari stays'. The possible reason for this pressure is due to the rumours surrounding the movements of Kimi Raikkonen.

Alonso has been placed in a very awkward position by these rumours. Fernando has failed to land a WDC at Ferrari, and should Massa be replaced by the Finn, it is Kimi, not Fernando, who has won the most recent title for Ferrari. Even if Fernando attempts to veto the move, in reality there is little he can do, as he is under contract at Ferrari, and cannot leave without severe repercussions financially, as well as the big question...where would he go? Ferrari desire championships, and the Alonso/Raikkonen partnership would possibly be the most formidable on the grid. With formidable partnerships, comes formidable results, but Alonso's past with competitive team-mates doesn't paint the Spaniard in a good light.

More likely to be announced this weekend, is the appointment of Daniel Ricciardo in Red Bull's 'Subservient Australian' role. It's unlikely to be unveiled as such, but with the Raikkonen/Red Bull deal off, it's all but definitive that it will be the young Australian slotting in beside Sebastian Vettel next year.

This weekend also marks three years since Sebastian Vettel's last significant collision with a competitor. Running into Jenson Button at the chicane in 2010 earned Sebastian the wrath of the pitlane, as well as being branded a 'crashkid', having had a few notable incidents during that season. Since that moment, the slight question mark over Vettel's overtaking abilities has disappeared, almost as if Vettel drew a line in the sand after Spa 2010 and raised his game to where he is now, still unreachable at the head of the pack.

Vettel will leave Spa as leader of the championship, regardless of what happens, and it's very difficult to see either Raikkonen or Alonso closing the gap, unless their teams figure out a lot of pace quite quickly. It is more possible to see Lewis Hamilton close the gap though. Mercedes are downplaying their strength as they enter the second half, as well as openly saying that results in Spa and Monza will determine when they shut down their programs for 2013, but one gets the feeling there is a lot of cautious optimism bubbling under the surface at Mercedes. The cars pace is good,and, more importantly, Lewis appears relaxed and happy with his racing and leaving his emotional baggage at home...something he appeared unable to do in 2011. The psychological pendulum has swung in Lewis's favour in recent weeks and it will be a real test of Nico Rosberg's mettle whether he can rise to the gauntlet that the Mercedes newcomer has thrown down.

The weather, which usually plays a part in Belgium, is expected to be changeable on Sunday, which means glorious sunshine at the start/finish line, and a monsoon at Blanchimont. Lotus, in particular, do not appear to be comfortable with damp conditions, and for this, I am ruling them out of contention for the victory. I don't believe Ferrari will have resolved all their pace issues within the break, and as a result, I don't believe Alonso will fight for the win either.

My prediction for this weekend: Vettel vs. Hamilton, with Raikkonen, Webber & Alonso duelling for 3rd spot. Let us know your predictions in the comments below.