FIM race titles

[Schummy]

After the Assen's race I wanted to see how was the situation of the riders as contenders for the title(s).

I used a (strange?) thing called One Race Gap (ORG), that translate the actual gap between each rider and the leading rider (with 11 races to go) to an equivalent gap if there was just one race to go, it is to say if we were waiting the last race in Valencia.

For example, Dovi currently has a 44 points gap to Marquez and it would be equivalent to have a 13.3 points gap with just one race to go. This way one can see more easily the difficulty of the task that Dovi has to achieve.

According to former seasons data, ORG = 10 approx means 10% of probability to overcome it. Moreover ORG = 25 approx means 1% of probability. I resume it saying that ORG > 10 means rider is "struggling" to contend for the title; if ORG > 25 then basically rider is unlikely to have real possibilities.

It can seem a bit weird but ORG is based in reasonable statistical hypothesis, it is not a random casual calculation :-)

Data for the three categories:

Mo3:
    Gap  ORG Goal 
CAN 107        
DLP   7  2.1   --
ANT  24  7.2   -8
ARB  31  9.3   -1
VIE  39 11.8   +8
MAS  42 12.7  +11

Mo2:
    Gap  ORG Goal 
LUT 117 
MAQ   6  1.8
FER  25  7.5   -7
NAV  28  8.4   -4
BAL  29  8.7   -3
MAR  33  9.9   +2
SCH  36 10.9   +5
BIN  53 15.98 +22  

MGP:
    Gap  ORG Goal 
MAR 160  
DOV  44 13.3  +13   --
PET  52 15.7  +21   --
RIN  59 17.8   --  -22
ROS  88 26.5   --   +8

In short, in MotoGP, nobody is really a contender against Marquez. Only Dovi, Petrucci and Rins are truly with any reasonable likelihood to think in the title (with at least 1% chance), but they are struggling.

Moto2 still has 5 riders contending directly against Luthi: Marquez, Fernandez, Navarro, Balda and Marini. Schroeder is in fact almost there too. Binder and the rest are struggling already (well, some of them are likely out of the title).

In Moto3 there are only three riders as contenders with Canet. Of course, they are DallaPorta, Antonelli and Arbolino. However, Vieti, Masia, ..., are struggling, they have a hard task ahead.

So, even before the middle point of the season, titles are already destined for a relatively short list of riders, with a high probability.