The Fifth Rider

[Schummy]

The surge of Simoncelli in Estoril has brought (again) the thought of what driver(s) can be a future member of the Aliens' Club (currently Lorenzo, Stoner, Pedrosa and the "disabled" Rossi).

The main candidates seems to be Spies (pre-season favorite for the role), Dovizioso (pre-pre-season dark horse for the job) and Simoncelli (forever favorite for the clown job in Dorna Circus ).

In terms of results, I think the current order is Dovi > Spies > Sim (I have resumed some data about the first three GPs, I'll put them later).

But in terms of (subjective) potential my opinion is Spies > Sim > Dovi. As I view it, Spies is yet relatively new in MotoGP and he has show very promising qualities, even if this season he has not been particularly good (so far). On the other side, Dovi, while has been a pretty good rider, is already in his fourth season and he looks to me somewhat stalled to be a true Alien (a bit as Melandri and Elias in their former seasons).

Simoncelli is bit of a mixed prospect, he can be fast in his days, but he can "disappear" in his gray days. Also, he is prone to crash (young Stoner??) and he is a bit wild on the bike.

About current form, Dovi has dominated his two "partners" in race results and fast race laps, but he has been "slow" in qualifyings. All in all I think Dovi has been the best of them so far this season.

Another question would be if those three will be able to beat Rossi in the whole of the season. My weak forecast is Rossi will beat them with the only exception of Spies if the Honda-Ducati gap grows larger and larger.

About the Aliens themselves... it is "bike Theology", too complicated to say something

[Mr V]

Be alright if Marco can keep the bike upright once the race starts!

I reckon he'll replace Dovi next year and then we'll see.

[jhansen]

I think Super Sic can do it. He has that X factor quality. Thinking back to Estoril, no way would Simoncelli sit behind Lorenzo for that many laps without stuffing a pass in there. He can also conjur up his inner Rossi with an ability to quickly make a re-pass. He just needs to find some consistency and sense. These are easier to learn than going fast.

Spies should be there, but is still pulling off privateer bike performacne on a factory ride. I'm quite disappointed so far. But, the three races don't offer a great picture. At the moment, I don't question his pace, but he needs to up his game in qually and starts. I hope it comes good, because the competition in this class is tough.

I say no to Dovi. He gave a few performances last year that said maybe he was ready, but I don't think so now. And he certainly can't out-perform Stoner and Pedrosa on the same equipment.

[Schummy]

Originally Posted by jhansen

He can also conjur up his inner Rossi with an ability to quickly make a re-pass.

Do you mean his inner "Muten Rossi"? (Dragon Ball)

[Mr V]

Originally Posted by jhansen

Thinking back to Estoril, no way would Simoncelli sit behind Lorenzo for that many laps without stuffing a pass in there.

But then you have to ask, would Dani fall off the same way Marco did?

I thought that Pedrosa's ride was a mature way to go about a race, i just see hot headedness with Simonchelli

[Schummy]

Comparison between Dovi, Sim and Spies in these four races. I give 2, 1 or 0 points according to their relative positions. Weighted Total is putting more weight in Races, then Fast Laps and then Qualifying (weights 4, 2 and 1).

Race:
Dovi  2 2 2 2 = 8
Sim   1 0 0 1 = 2
Spies 0 1 1 0 = 2

Fast Lap:
Dovi  1 1 2 1 = 5
Sim   0 2 0 2 = 4
Spies 2 0 1 0 = 3

Qualify:
Dovi  0 0 0 1 = 1
Sim   2 1 2 2 = 7
Spies 1 2 1 0 = 4

Total (simple)
Dovi  3 3 4 4 = 14
Sim   3 3 2 5 = 13
Spies 3 3 3 0 =  9

Total (weighted)
Dovi  10 10 12 11 = 43 
Sim    6  5  2 10 = 23
Spies  5  6  7  0 = 18

Basically Dovi is doing better than the other two. But if we partition the scoring we can see some details.

In races Dovi has over-performed his rivals very clearly, with two 4ths and a 2nd. The 4ths were behind the three aliens, the 2nd was ahead of Lorenzo (Pedrosa doesn't count ). His only bad race result was Jerez, he had a troublesome race in an already troublesome wet race.

But Dovi has been pretty bad in qualifying, often worse than his rivals. His fast laps have not been very good neither, just more or less as Spies and Sim's. Having a relatively lowly grid position, getting good race results but not doing particularly fast laps means one thing: his key quality has been the regularity. Sim and Spies had best grid positions (specially Sim) and they do approximately the same level of fast laps as Dovi but they *crash* and they get involved in irregular riding pace/incidents.

Both Sim and Spies have two DNFs, but even when they finish they cannot beat Dovi results: Sim has two 5ths and Spies two 6ths, which are very poor performances.

So perhaps Dovi is being a bit underrated (I admit my own part on it). Sim can be fast some laps, but at the moment he doesn't have a sense of his limits (and his race etiquette is dismaying), and he doesn't ride a difficult Ducati but a performing Honda.

[Schummy]

Updating after GBR.

Race:
Dovi  2 2 2 2 1 2 = 11
Sim   1 0 0 1 0 1 =  3
Spies 0 1 1 0 2 0 =  4

Fast Lap:
Dovi  1 1 2 1 2 1 = 8
Sim   0 2 0 2 0 2 = 6
Spies 2 0 1 0 1 0 = 4

Qualify:
Dovi  0 0 0 1 0 0 =  1
Sim   2 1 2 2 2 2 = 11
Spies 1 2 1 0 1 1 =  6

Total (simple)
Dovi  3 3 4 4 3 3 = 20
Sim   3 3 2 5 2 5 = 20
Spies 3 3 3 0 4 1 = 14

Total (weighted)
Dovi  10 10 12 11  8 10 = 61 
Sim    6  5  2 10  2 10 = 35
Spies  5  6  7  0 11  1 = 30

Dovi is very clearly the best in race classifications, Simoncelli is clearly the best in qualifying. In fastest laps things are relatively more equal, except that Dovi is clearly better than Spies.

In terms of raw results Dovi is being the most profitable, but in terms of potential, I suppose all the eyes are with "Clown" Simoncelli. His qualifyings are impressive and in race he is touching top positions. The bad side, naturally, is he doesn't control his limits (Crashtoner?). As they say, it is probably easier to do more consistent a fast rider than to do faster a consistent one.

The sad side is Ben Spies is being neatly outperformed by his two rivals for a future "aliendom". Again a question is if the Yamahas are (even) slower than Lorenzo is forcing us to believe, and so Ben is suffering as a result. But Spies is not beating Edwards and Crutchlow as definitively as he should do...

[IMO]In short, the best by now is Dovi, but who has more probabilities to be the Fifth Alien Rider is Simoncelli.[/IMO]

[gomick]

Dovi has been in Moto GP (4th season) the same amount of time as Jorge, so maybe he should be compared more to him than Spies & Sic who are only in there 2nd season... Think Dovi has shown his entire career that he is more of a consistent finisher than a blindingly quick rider who crashes every now & then - dunno if he has it to be "alien", maybe more like a Barros for example who would finish top 6 in a championship with a handful of "great rides" in a season & the rest just consistent finishes...

[chunder]

To be honest Gom Barros was a little more inconsistent than that but also perhaps a litle quicker than Simoncellie.

If you ask Rossi who his hardest rivals are he will often mention Barros as sometimes he will simply admit that he did things he couldnt do!! Assen 2002 on the 2 stroke is a case in point.

Dovi is a safe pair of hands and maybe might go better on a different bike as he has never tried anything else.

Alien wise in honesty Stoner is setting a new level this year, the martian!!

[gomick]

I meant Dovi may finish 4th in the championship most years - like Barros did in 2000,01,02 & 04... No doubting Barros was more inconsistent, but also quick on his day!

[jhansen]

Well Spies finally shows up with the first 800cc victory by a non alien on a dry (more or less) track.

[Schummy]

Update after Silverstone.

Race:
Dovi  2 2 2 2 1 2 1 = 12
Sim   1 0 0 1 0 1 0 =  3
Spies 0 1 1 0 2 0 2 =  6

Fast Lap:
Dovi  1 1 2 1 2 1 1 = 9
Sim   0 2 0 2 0 2 0 = 6
Spies 2 0 1 0 1 0 2 = 6

Qualify:
Dovi  0 0 0 1 0 0 0 =  1
Sim   2 1 2 2 2 2 2 = 13
Spies 1 2 1 0 1 1 1 =  7

Total (simple)
Dovi  3 3 4 4 3 3 2 = 22
Sim   3 3 2 5 2 5 2 = 22
Spies 3 3 3 0 4 1 5 = 19

Total (weighted)
Dovi  10 10 12 11  8 10  6 = 67 
Sim    6  5  2 10  2 10  2 = 37
Spies  5  6  7  0 11  1 13 = 43

Spies has bettered his stats and now he is almost tied in Simple Total and he has overtaken Simoncelli in Weighted Total.

Simoncelli continues being the clear top in qualifying, but the lack of race results is hurting him badly (in this stat and in real life, I suppose). Anyway, he looks a promising prospect as a future winner if he left behind some idiotic race-craft issues.

For the first time Ben has been like most of us thought he would be along the season. However, just one race is not enough to be too much excited by it.