Some stats about the 2013 FIM GP season

[Schummy]

These are some stats about the season in the three categories of racing. Each table has 5 columns:
- Num of wins
- Num of 2nds
- Num of poles
- Num of 2nds in qualifying
- An estimate of the probability of winning next race. It is like a resume of the former columns, and try to show the ranking of riders.

Those numbers basically say what riders are the fastest in each category, not their consistency.

Moto3:
     1st 2nd Pol 2nd  Pwin
RIN   6   5   6   3   .363 
SAL   7   2   4   2   .311 
VIN   2   7   2   5   .230 
FOL   0   0   2   1   .037 
MAR   0   1   0   2   .030
OLI   0   0   1   1   .022
MAS   0   0   0   1   .007
     15  15  15  15  
	 
Moto2:
     1st 2nd Pol 2nd  Pwin
ESP   5   1   5   2   .252 
RED   3   3   3   4   .207 
RAB   3   3   2   3   .185 
NAK   0   4   3   3   .126 
TER   2   1   1   0   .089
KAL   1   1   0   0   .044
TOR   1   0   0   1   .037
LUT   0   1   0   1   .022 
COR   0   1   0   0   .015
SIM   0   0   1   0   .015
ZAR   0   0   0   1   .007
     15  15  15  15  

MotoGP:
     1st 2nd Pol 2nd  Pwin
MAR   6   5   8   3   .368 
LOR   6   1   3   6   .264 
PED   3   6   2   2   .208 
CRU   0   2   2   3   .076 
ROS   1   1   0   1   .049
BRA   0   1   1   0   .028 
BAU   0   0   0   1   .007
     16  16  16  16

[Schummy]

Just to add some commentary to the former tables. According to the probability estimations, we have the following.

Riders who "probably" (>50%) win any of the two last races:

Marquez 60%
Rins 59%
Salom 53%

Lorenzo and Espargaro fall a bit short of being probably winners. Lorenzo because of the competition from Marquez and Pedrosa; Espargaro because potential Moto2 wins are pretty spread along many riders.

Riders that is not "rare" (>5%) that win any of the last races:

Rins, Salom, Vinales, (Folger), (Alex Marquez)
Espargaro, Redding(?), Rabat, Nakagami, Terol, (Kallio), (Torres)
Marquez, Lorenzo, Pedrosa, Crutchlow, (Rossi), (Bradl)

It is not a surprising list, but I subjectively find Torres a bit out of place.

Along all this, it seems clear that the most probable riders to get the titles are: Rins and Salom, Espargaro (and Redding depending on his condition), Marquez. So, IMO, Vinales, Rabat or Lorenzo are alternative options just in case something no usual happens.