Who Will Win the 2024 Championships?

[GTRMagic]

Originally Posted by chavez

A number of responses here suggest that perhaps the best plan for a team to win the drivers' championship would be to nominate a number one driver and in every race, ensure that the number one finished ahead of the number two.

Running fifth and sixth...swap 'em. Running third and seventh....drop back behind.

No need if the driver is as good as the Sky presenters hype him up so hard to be. Just drive away from the other bloke. Simples.

[P38 in workshop]

Judging from last weekend I would think that McLaren's two excellent drivers will be consistent points scorers and that should see the Constructor's title go to Woking.The Ferrari and Red Bull drivers will all stand a chance of the intermittent brilliant result and this factor will probably be what gives Verstappen the driver's title.

[Aysedasi]

Agreed. I think that is McLaren's 'problem'. Their two drivers are probably as equally matched as any two we have seen for some time. IMO Lando is clearly quicker over a single lap, but Oscar has great early pace. Lando once he has his nose in front is very strong while Oscar can at times seem to go to sleep a little. Personally I think the WDC is beyond Lando this season, but next season could be very interesting indeed....

[chillibowl]

speculation on my part, i dont think Mclaren expected to even be in this position this year (im not sure anyone did honestly) and right or wrong they are sticking to their pre season goals...get a win for Lando and possibly one for OP (done both), use 2024 to move forward in order to maximize 2025 and the last year of the current ruleset, while keeping an eye out for the big reshuffle opportunity of 2026....basically this season was supposed to be about team building for the future and not making a run at both titles let alone one title.

so on one hand i cant fault them for not switching gears and putting all their emphasis towards one driver, perhaps at the expense of development for 2025 and/or for OP. they had a plan going into the season and so far it is working so why change it now? plus, if this season is anything to go by, massive swings in performance are the norm this year so you cant discount Max/RB coming back on this thing.

on the other hand, now that the this possibility exists to also secure a WDC, however small, one would think they should just go for it right? if you are a competitive team then you have to go for it right?

im certainly in the 'go for it camp' but that is of course a far easier thing to say then for them to actually do.

anyways, i did not think this season would end up having so much juice!

[TrapezeArtist]

Originally Posted by Tourer

Except that it isn't winning on merit if the only competitor in the field with the same machinery as you is lying down and gifting you the win (or position). It is why for me personally some of the WDC from the drivers you mention are seriously devalued (particularly Schumacher and Hamilton).

If Lando was to win the WDC this year (unlikely with or without team orders) then it should be SO much sweeter and MUCH more special if he beat his team mate in the process, with no assistance from team orders - now THAT would be worthy of a British Racing Green cover for Autosport!

Far from being gifted points from team orders, so far Lando has lost 7 points from team orders (Hungary).

[Tourer]

Originally Posted by TrapezeArtist

Far from being gifted points from team orders, so far Lando has lost 7 points from team orders (Hungary).

He also received car updates before Oscar, plus was given better strategies than Oscar during races earlier in the year (or even more recently - remember Silverstone?). Don't know how many points that adds up to but Oscar didn't quibble about it as the team asked him to "take one for the team". We all tend to focus on Hungary because Lando quibbled, & quibbled, & quibbled, & quibbled when asked to do (for the first time) what his team mate had already done for him on a number of occasions this year.

Anyway - my point was about a situation from now onwards IF the team decide to favour Lando during races so that he might be WDC.

[Plantagenet]

Originally Posted by Aysedasi

Agreed. I think that is McLaren's 'problem'. Their two drivers are probably as equally matched as any two we have seen for some time.

2007 maybe....and yikes, that didn't end well.
Perhaps the Button/Hamilton years is a better fit where they nicely complemented each other, although they didn't really challenge for the title.

FWIW, I think us Brits tend to want Norris to do well. But I have been super impressed with Piastri. His speed is really very close to Norris. This is despite being very young and having only 1.5 seasons in F1; it's easy to forget that Norris has a good few years under his belt now. But what I like most about him is he seems completely unflappable.
For me, in 2025 he could be a real contender.

[dcp2685]

Originally Posted by Aysedasi

Agreed. I think that is McLaren's 'problem'. Their two drivers are probably as equally matched as any two we have seen for some time. IMO Lando is clearly quicker over a single lap, but Oscar has great early pace. Lando once he has his nose in front is very strong while Oscar can at times seem to go to sleep a little. Personally I think the WDC is beyond Lando this season, but next season could be very interesting indeed....

I like both Lando and Oscar. But Lando has the experience and I think that's the difference between the two. Honestly Lando should have two more victories this season. Once because McLaren screwed up the strategy and one because of Lando's poor start at Monza.

That said. I think it'll be an interesting conclusion to the season with McLaren taking a number of victories but I think Max will end up World Champion. Given Max's recent Grand Prix starts mid pack, if he gets caught up in someone elses misfortune, 2 dnf's and it's game on.

[cavvy]

Obviously when Lando is behind Oscar, its got nothing to do with experience, its on Lando.

The Constructors Championship is McLarens target first & foremost.

[Teretonga]

Originally Posted by TrapezeArtist

Far from being gifted points from team orders, so far Lando has lost 7 points from team orders (Hungary).

How many did he lose in Austria?
Had he settled for second in Austria he would be 3 points closer to Max.
He retired in Austria and Max finished 5th (10 points).
Had he finished Lando would have earned 18 points and Max would have 25, a difference of 7.
But retiring and Max finishing 5th put him a further 10 points behind, so he'd have been actually another 3 points closer than he now, and McLaren would be leading the WCC already

When people dither over the fact the team 'cost him' seven points in Hungary they're ignoring the fact that Lando may be more conscious of the point gap created by not settling for 2nd in Austria.

No driver wants to lose a win when he thinks he has a chance but if you are going to look back in Hindsight about a particular result look at the whole season in retrospect, not just one individual result.
There was a clear team plan in Hungary and McLaren had the strength of character to not dip back on the promise to Piastri.
The same may happen in one of the 11 starts left they have this season.
If people want to start evaluating the season, wait until its finished before they start lambasting the team or Piastri.

As I have said before, the title is Lando's to win. To do that he has to lift his overall consistency and performance. That means to win more races, consistently race well, keep his nose out of trouble and finish well.

There is plenty of opportunity to do that in the races left to run.

[Aysedasi]

Originally Posted by Teretonga

How many did he lose in Austria?
Had he settled for second in Austria he would be 3 points closer to Max.
He retired in Austria and Max finished 5th (10 points).
Had he finished Lando would have earned 18 points and Max would have 25, a difference of 7.
But retiring and Max finishing 5th put him a further 10 points behind, so he'd have been actually another 3 points closer than he now, and McLaren would be leading the WCC already

When people dither over the fact the team 'cost him' seven points in Hungary they're ignoring the fact that Lando may be more conscious of the point gap created by not settling for 2nd in Austria.

No driver wants to lose a win when he thinks he has a chance but if you are going to look back in Hindsight about a particular result look at the whole season in retrospect, not just one individual result.
There was a clear team plan in Hungary and McLaren had the strength of character to not dip back on the promise to Piastri.
The same may happen in one of the 11 starts left they have this season.
If people want to start evaluating the season, wait until its finished before they start lambasting the team or Piastri.

As I have said before, the title is Lando's to win. To do that he has to lift his overall consistency and performance. That means to win more races, consistently race well, keep his nose out of trouble and finish well.

There is plenty of opportunity to do that in the races left to run.

Not disagreeing, but waiting until it's over is a bit too late.....

[TrapezeArtist]

Originally Posted by Teretonga

How many did he lose in Austria?
Had he settled for second in Austria he would be 3 points closer to Max.
He retired in Austria and Max finished 5th (10 points).
Had he finished Lando would have earned 18 points and Max would have 25, a difference of 7.
But retiring and Max finishing 5th put him a further 10 points behind, so he'd have been actually another 3 points closer than he now, and McLaren would be leading the WCC already

When people dither over the fact the team 'cost him' seven points in Hungary they're ignoring the fact that Lando may be more conscious of the point gap created by not settling for 2nd in Austria.

No driver wants to lose a win when he thinks he has a chance but if you are going to look back in Hindsight about a particular result look at the whole season in retrospect, not just one individual result.
There was a clear team plan in Hungary and McLaren had the strength of character to not dip back on the promise to Piastri.
The same may happen in one of the 11 starts left they have this season.
If people want to start evaluating the season, wait until its finished before they start lambasting the team or Piastri.

As I have said before, the title is Lando's to win. To do that he has to lift his overall consistency and performance. That means to win more races, consistently race well, keep his nose out of trouble and finish well.

There is plenty of opportunity to do that in the races left to run.

I understand what you're saying about Austria, but if he had simply allowed himself to be intimidated by Max's dubious tactics he would have been seen as a soft touch forevermore. They clashed wheels and it was no more than luck (good for Max, bad for Lando) that the outcome was as it was.

[Teretonga]

Originally Posted by TrapezeArtist

I understand what you're saying about Austria, but if he had simply allowed himself to be intimidated by Max's dubious tactics he would have been seen as a soft touch forevermore. They clashed wheels and it was no more than luck (good for Max, bad for Lando) that the outcome was as it was.

The reason I mentioned Austria was because at that time Max winning the championship was a foregone conclusion for most people.

No one considered how many points a second would have elevated Lando in the WDC.
It is only since the British, Belgian and Hungary GP's that people have begun to re-evaluate Max's grip on the championship.

If you are a racing driver accumulating the most points you can against your opposition is the most effective way of communicating your value as a driver.
Whatever incidents you get involved with and costs to your team are devaluing your value as a driver.
Or were all the comments about Sargent completely false and of no value or meaning at all.
Too many people open their mouths and shoot from the hip.
Mclaren were well aware of what they were doing in Hungary, but the performance at Spa did nothing to underline that the McLaren approach was wrong.

If people think that waiting until the season is over is too late, what do they think their negative comments and criticisms are going to do?

Do they make the decisions and write the cheques?
Do they think the torrent of online opinion is going to be the decisive factor in forcing a change to team policy?

The teams will do what is best for them, and their drivers, in line with their goals and expectations for the season.
The rest is simply opinion, or in some cases, "what I would do if I was them"....

[S griffin]

Originally Posted by TrapezeArtist

I understand what you're saying about Austria, but if he had simply allowed himself to be intimidated by Max's dubious tactics he would have been seen as a soft touch forevermore. They clashed wheels and it was no more than luck (good for Max, bad for Lando) that the outcome was as it was.

Yes I agree. If there had been any justice, it would have been Max who lost out in Austira and not Lando. As it was Max got away lightly with his dirty tactics. Lando was always entitled to try for the lead that day. He shouldn't settle for 2nd just because the driver in front has a tendency to resort to underhand tactics

[Aysedasi]

Originally Posted by Teretonga

If people think that waiting until the season is over is too late, what do they think their negative comments and criticisms are going to do?

Do they make the decisions and write the cheques?
Do they think the torrent of online opinion is going to be the decisive factor in forcing a change to team policy?.

I'm going to work on the basis that this bit is pure tongue in cheek..... on an internet forum....which provides a place for people to give their opinions.... which may be negative and critical.....

They're not going to achieve anything of course. We all know that. But if we were only allowed to post on subjects where we could actually influence an outcome, this would be a pretty barren place.....

[Teretonga]

Originally Posted by Aysedasi

I'm going to work on the basis that this bit is pure tongue in cheek..... on an internet forum....which provides a place for people to give their opinions.... which may be negative and critical.....

They're not going to achieve anything of course. We all know that. But if we were only allowed to post on subjects where we could actually influence an outcome, this would be a pretty barren place.....

It was a rhetorical question, so yes, tongue in cheek....

[Aysedasi]

Fair enough then.....

[steve_r]

McLaren are now asking Piastri to support Norris in the WDC battle.

It seems a bit too late to me, even with the change in the teams pecking order.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1...s/c4gen1vegx7o

[S griffin]

Originally Posted by steve_r

McLaren are now asking Piastri to support Norris in the WDC battle.

It seems a bit too late to me, even with the change in the teams pecking order.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1...s/c4gen1vegx7o

Not gonna make much difference, they still have an uphill struggle, especially with Ferrari making a resurgence

[Teretonga]

Originally Posted by steve_r

McLaren are now asking Piastri to support Norris in the WDC battle.

It seems a bit too late to me, even with the change in the teams pecking order.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1...s/c4gen1vegx7o

Not too late.
There are 232 points on offer.
Even if Red Bull make a resurgence all that tells us that it was always a bridge too far.

The biggest issue for me through all the discussion is that Lando fans expected every other fan to fall into their view of things and that was not only unrealistic in view of how much ground Lando was going to have to make up, but they were also expecting everyone else involved to pave Lando's path when the reality is it is his mistakes over the season that left him with the mountain he has to climb.

Don't get me wrong.
I would love him to win the title. It would make history as one of the biggest comebacks ever.

I just think the way people were getting into Oscar and McLaren/Stella/Brown was wrong.

[TrapezeArtist]

While McLaren are now in a nice (but far from unassailable) lead in the constructors championship, Lando only inched a tiny bit closer to the drivers championship. It's not enough, unless Red Bull suffer some unreliability or Verstappen starts crashing again. However the gap could be down to less than 10 points (thinking Hungary + Italy) by the end, or maybe less than 7 points (Hungary).