Toward the title 2013

[Schummy]

We could analyze title chance with another procure I have used in former seasons: Typical scores to get a title. Basically speaking, you probably get a title when you get a high enough score, and you proably will not get a title if yu get a too low score, irrespectively to other drivers' scores.

After Monza, the score levels to be on the way (or not) to the WDC are:

"Sure" title: 216 points
Probable title: 198
"Posible" title: 144

Current scores are:

VET 222
ALO 169
HAM 141
RAI 134

So, Vettel appears as having a "safe" title right now. I cannot say it is a unrealistic proposition. Alonso has "probabilities", but if Vettel has a "sure" title, those probabilities look rather weak. On the other side, Hamilton and Kimi's points are not even enough for a posible title. They would have to increase their average; but, again, if Vettel is already with a "sure" title...

Let's look (just as an excuse to do more calculations) at Singapore's prospects. What scenary will we have after it? Oh, we are going to need a table . This table shows the positions (in Singapore's race) that each driver need to have: (1) a Sure title, (2) a Probable title or (3) a Posible title.

 
     Sure Prob Pos
VET  4th  YES  YES
ALO   NO   NO  YES
HAM   NO   NO  3rd
RAI   NO   NO  1st

In short:

• If Vettel is at least 4th, he will continue on the rail to a sure title.
• No matter what Vettel does, he always will have a probable title (>50% probability)
• No matter how bad Alonso does, he will have "posibilities" for title. The same for Hamilton if he achieves at least a 3rd or Kimi if he gets a win. BUT: all them needs VETTEL DOESN'T GET A 4TH POSITION, to not have a "sure" title.

More or less, the pictures from the two "methods" of reasoning (in this and the former post) are similar. Vettel is a heavy favorite, Alonso has some little chances and Hamilton and Raikkonen need outworldly help to think in a WDC. All of it looks like a trivial conclusion, but the difference is this conclusion is got through calculations based in some statistics facts.

[Catingaround]

Originally Posted by Schummy

All of it looks like a trivial conclusion, but the difference is this conclusion is got through calculations based in some statistics facts.

Its fascinating to see the math describe what is usually based on intuition. Predicting the title race based on data and seeing it follow what seems obvious or logical based on knowledge and experience is fun, thanks again for doing this


I never took statistics in school and surely missed out on something I would have enjoyed.

[Schummy]

Statistics applied to something you like can be interesting and entertaining. But applied to boring generic data can be arid and hateful. I think a bad teacher/professor, or a good one with a too big amount of students in class, can do a lot of damage. Sadly there are a lot of people that attended a statistics class *and* dislikes it (as a result).

[Schummy]

Things are gloomy for Alonso, not to speak of Hamilton and Kimi.

Two approach to see the situation.

Approach 1: Gap.

60 points for 6 races =~ 24.5 points in one race ==> Very, very difficult (around 1%).

Approach 2: Points to get title.

To have a "safe" title: 234 points
To "probably" have a title: 214.5 points
To have "possibility" of title: 156 points

Vettel 247 points ==> SAFE title
Alonso 187 points ==> Possibility of title... but Vettel's title is "safe", so...
Hamilton 151 points ==> Without practical possibilities
Raikkonen 149 points ==> Idem

In both cases the conclusion is the same: Alonso has minimal chances and Lewis and Kimi are out of it in practical terms.

What has to happen in Korea for Alonso to get reasonable title possibilities?

If Vettel gets very few points in Korea, he will get out of the "safe title" zone. It would give Alonso a bit of breathing space. If Vettel has a zero and Alonso wins, the gap reduces to 35 points for 5 races, it "equivalents" to 15'7 for one race; never FA has got a gap of 16 or more in this season. The estimated probability of something like that is about 4%. So even if Korea is maximally positive for Alonso, his possibilities are small.

Let's pass to the next season, this is over

[Schummy]

It is pretty clear that this WDC is over, talking in practical terms. SV has a gap with 77 points to FA with 5 races to go, it correlates with a 34.4 points gap in ONE race. In terms of probabilities it is hugely difficult to overcome.

Alonso has said that WDC title is basically gone and that he is going to focus on the Constructor's title. No a great idea because the situation is not very different:

Red Bull 402
Ferrari 284
Mercedes 283

Gap 118 points for 5 races to go, it implies a 52.8 points gap in one race. Maximum points in one race are 43. Mathematically it is feasible, but completely unlikely, I'd say less than 1% of probability.

So, both titles are almost closed already. The only thing remaining to be decided are the runner-up positions.

[Aysedasi]

Sigh...... With 5 races to go.......

[Marbot]

Originally Posted by Schummy

The only thing remaining to be decided are the runner-up positions.

And how much effort are they likely to put into that? I can imagine that there is quite a large difference in prize money between second and third place in the constructors championship. About 10 million dollars, IIRC.

[Schummy]

There will be an interesting balance between those prizes ("today") and the development of the new car ("tomorrow"). I would like to know the line of reasoning of the different teams.