Would Kimi have won had the car held together?

[Kicking-back]

Originally Posted by GP Racer

Comes down to this lousy points system again.

I'd love to think that both drivers would have been really going after the win, but IMO neither Alonso or Kimi would have taken any real chances at that point in the race for only a 2 point difference. The teams must have been screaming in their ears, "no chances, take the points!"

It's got absolutely nothing to do with the points system.

As the actual outcome showed - Kimi would have done what he could to win - as he has to to have a chance at catching up.

McLaren certainly weren't screaming at him not to take chances.

Alonso would have been cautious - that's not the points system per se, it's the fact he leads the championship commandingly.

[chillibowl]

if it got close what advantage would KR have for letting alonso by. surely KR would have rather settled for taking both himself and alonso out of the race before yeilding 2 additional points in the WDC. i guess that means kimi would have been able to hold of alonso since alonso would have been smart to avoid any rash behaviour on KR's part.

[Adam43]

Originally Posted by Valve Bounce

I think, from the information provided by Adam that for some reason, Alonso also started to slow down as his gains on Kimi started to lessen. Maybe Alonso was also having tyre problems towards, something we will never know.

Looking at the graph the first few laps after the final stop are an almost linear gain of 1.5s. Then for some reason this gain reduces to more like 0.5s on lap 54. However from then on the gain increases everylap to 1.2s on lap 58. Another 1.2s gain would have left him 0.3s behind at the end.

It would suggest over the last five laps Alonso's relative advantage over Kimi was increasing.

In the middle of this there were some backmarkers so I am a little suprised to see such trends in the data. Knowing when they past these back markers would take a little more research.

[GP Racer]

Originally Posted by Kicking-back

McLaren certainly weren't screaming at him not to take chances.

Do you honestly think they were telling Kimi to push it? His car was a mess, and was slowing considerably. I think Ron told him to back off, and just finish the race, and if we keep first, great, if not second is only 2 points less...

[M Harrison]

Originally Posted by AdamAshmore

It would have been blummin' close. He was in the corner that was the hardest to defend when he went off, so we have to assume he would have been alright there. The best place after that is the final chicane as mentioned. That would have been exciting.

Here are the gaps after Alonso's stop:

Lap Gap
48 11.825
49 10.1
50 8.652
51 7.446
52 6.17
53 4.922
54 4.452
55 4.036
56 3.548
57 2.729
58 1.589

Also see quick graph which is attached!

It is difficult to say, but it would be a last chicane or corner job. I'll go for, er, no.

Taking this info in a different context, I would say it would have been very, very close indeed, and I'd tend to think that it would have been the chicane or the last corner, if at all. With that in mind, I'd say no - simply because Kimi could make his car just wide enough.

The reason I say it's close....look at the chunks Alonso was taking out of Raikkonen per lap towards the end - as Adam says, it was increasing:

50-53 - 1.25ish
54 - 0.470
55 - 0.416
56 - 0.488
57 - 0.819
58 - 1.140
59 - ? maybe 1.4-1.5

It suggests to me that Kimi was taking it easy between laps 48-53, then stepped it up a gear because he knew he'd lose the race if he continued to lose a second and a half a lap. So probably not quite. Obviously, a more likely scenario was that the tyre would suffer a more minor failure, allowing Raikkonen to limp home 2nd or 3rd.

[Kicking-back]

Originally Posted by GP Racer

Do you honestly think they were telling Kimi to push it? His car was a mess, and was slowing considerably. I think Ron told him to back off, and just finish the race, and if we keep first, great, if not second is only 2 points less...

They were not telling him to "push it" - but that's different from settling for the points.

He was not slowing considerably - his lap times had dropped off but they were pretty consistent.

They were doing everything they could to win - not thinking about a safe points finish.

[Adam43]

Just to demonstrate the change in the rate of change of the gap I have drawn a couple of lines on the graph I quickly did before.


Let's look at k-b's point. Were KR's and FA's lap times consistent at the end. Of course there were back markers and tyre problems so the results of this will be effected by both.

Alonso was a tad more consistent. It is clear that over the last four laps Kimi's decreasing lap times are the main cause for the increase in the rate of gain that Alonso has on the first graph above.

[Robert]

Yes, he would have.

Robert

[John Turner]

Well, I'm glad that I asked the question now, in view of the info. that is emerging especially with Adam's graphs. I 've just viewed the last 10 laps again, from the point where Martin Brundle notes that Kimi's times were already into inconsistent mode. Adam's graph showing Kimi's increasing lap times over the last 3 laps tends to confirm that he was having to slow just to stay on the track. I also reckon that at the point of the suspension failure, Alonso had further reduced the gap to well below 1.5 seconds, although that is simply my visual impression. With two back markers, in front of Kimi, to negotiate, he was clearly vulnerable to an Alonso attack. He may well not have been in a position to respond without taking both himself and Alonso off. Although clearly outnumbered, I'll stick to my feeling that Alonso would have snatched it.

As an aside, I watched the suspension failure in slowmo and it shows that the thickness of the proverbial cigarette paper was all there was preventing Jensen being taken out as well!

[f1manoz]

Kimi would have held on the for the win. Catching is one thing, passing is another.

[krt917]

Originally Posted by chillibowl

if it got close what advantage would KR have for letting alonso by. surely KR would have rather settled for taking both himself and alonso out of the race before yeilding 2 additional points in the WDC. i guess that means kimi would have been able to hold of alonso since alonso would have been smart to avoid any rash behaviour on KR's part.

I haven't seen any evidence in Kimi's career so far to suggest that he would have been prepared to take Alonso off, but I agree that he would have tried very hard to keep him back, seeing as it was the last lap!

Originally Posted by John Turner

IHowever, it is also true, as k-b mentions, that Alonso might not have wanted to risk it. On the other hand, he too, is a racer, and that very instinct that kept Kimi out on track for the win, may have led to Fernando also taking the risk.

I agree that Alonso is a racer. For the same reasons that Kimi stayed out, I believe Alonso would have had a go if he had seen a chance.

My feeling at the time was that Alonso would probably be in a position to have a go into the last chicane (I'm thinking Schuey Vs Alesi in '95!), though whether he would have got by is debatable. I don't believe Alonso's tyres were perfect, but given that Kimi's situation was getting worse I reckon he wouldn't have been able to defend on the brakes if Alonso had really had a go. So, I'm going to say Alonso would have won...

All this conjecture makes me even more disappointed that the McLaren's suspension failed - what a finish we would have had!

[300kph]

Originally Posted by chillibowl

if it got close what advantage would KR have for letting alonso by. surely KR would have rather settled for taking both himself and alonso out of the race before yeilding 2 additional points in the WDC. i guess that means kimi would have been able to hold of alonso since alonso would have been smart to avoid any rash behaviour on KR's part.

Hmmm... I hope Chillibowl is not racing...