[LM24] The 2020 (not as good and late) Annual Le Mans Prediction Thread

[PascaLM]

The weather won't be as r***y as I expected.

[Adam43]

I’m at the other extreme. Any rain or SC kills my chances.

[Adam43]

If it's clean for the rest of the race then we might get 380+ laps...

[joeb]

Originally Posted by Adam43

If it's clean for the rest of the race then we might get 380+ laps...

Behavior seems to be good lately, you might be in the clear

[GT6]

380 laps would be good for me

[Adam43]

Shower, or even a storm at near the end?

[whitemr2]

My prediction was based on a lot of non sun.

[GT6]

Still a chance but appears that french weather forecasting is about as reliable as british weather forecasting

[Adam43]

It was cobbled together and a pale immitation of the annual 10-10ths predictions competition. That's 2020 for you, but it went ahead. Late.

Pole Prediction Prize

Winner: PascaLM

Prediction	03:15.300
Actual Pole	03:15.267

The fans appreciated this French pole sitter - a great reward for all their years of hard work running the competition.

Number of Laps Prize

Winner: nasdriv87

Prediction	383
Actual Pole	387

A close affair. Adam43 also predicted the same number of laps, but nasdriv87's entry was received earlier. So in a rule that the organizers didn't publish nasdriv87 wins.

It was notable that some entrants were gambling on a wet set-up.

Overall

----- -----	----- ------	----- -----
nasdriv87	Adam43	GT6
2nd	1st	3rd

Entrant	Pole	Pole D	Laps	Lap D	Index
Le Mans 2020	3:15.267	0.000	387	0	0.00
Adam43	3:15.222	0.045	383	4	1.01
nasdriv87	3:14.890	0.377	383	4	1.34
GT6	3:16.000	0.733	380	7	2.41
Aysedasi	3:16.771	1.504	382	5	2.70
Lutzvic	3:15.746	0.479	376	11	3.12
Bentley03	3:14.780	0.487	398	11	3.13
joeb	3:15.848	0.581	374	13	3.7
Lasse	3:17.261	1.994	378	9	4.15
Hawkwood	3:16.666	1.399	375	12	4.28
PascaLM	3:15.300	0.033	364	23	5.55
AndyN	3:16.385	1.118	367	20	5.92
whitemr2	3:15.831	0.564	359	28	7.28
gert	3:19.666	4.399	369	18	8.72
Truckosaurus	3:18.001	2.734	350	37	11.61

And the fans shouted "fix"...

[whitemr2]

Thanks for organising. Congrats to the podium finishers.

[Truckosaurus]

Congratulations to the winners.

I gladly accept my wooden spoon.

[Aysedasi]

Well, miserable on the pole but close on the laps for me....

[GT6]

Hey ho that is the best result i have ever had on the prediction competition, a podium all be it bronze is a good result for me. Thanks for doing it Adam

[Adam43]

There were some good gambles with the lower laps, but the rain just didn't come.

What do you think?

Was the balance between pole and laps right? I just chose the index so it had 0.24 in it, but I felt it gave a good weighting to pole and laps. Based on the average of entrees the number of laps was about three times as important. That's good in that it means the race is more important and the competiton isn't dead after Q.

Although if I had thought of it I would have tried to have an index calc that had a similar importance to PascaLM's better competition from previous years. There 1s difference got you 50 point and 10 laps got you 50 points.

[GT6]

Well no complaints from me, never got even close before

[Aysedasi]

Seemed absolutely spot on to me Adam, and just what we needed.

[PascaLM]

Thank you Adam, a simplified predictions contest is as funny as a complex one.