The never ending Toyota return to Le Mans (LMP1) Saga

[gwyllion]

Originally Posted by gwyllion

That is a personal opinion that is not backed by the facts.

The gap between Audi #2 and Toyota #8 changed in the following manner during the different safety car periods.

• safety car 2 + 3
  • lap 75: 2:14.250
  • lap 81: 1:27.882
  • Toyota gained 46.368 sec
• safety car 4
  • lap 117: 2:42.926
  • lap 122: 3:44.032
  • Toyota lost 61.106 sec
• safety car 5
  • lap 133: 3:22.493
  • lap 138: 3:31.076
  • Toyota lost 8.583 sec
• safety car 6
  • lap 171: 3:14.801
  • lap 176: 3:34.756
  • Toyota lost 19.955 sec
• safety car 7
  • lap 180: 3:32.191
  • lap 191: 2:31.207
  • Toyota gained 60.984 sec
• safety car 8 + 9
  • lap 255: 3:50.693
  • lap 167: 4:34.988
  • Toyota lost 44.295 sec
• safety car 10
  • lap 272: 5:47.037
  • lap 281: 3:44.764
  • Toyota gained 122.273 sec
• safety car 11
  • lap 333: 5:59.891
  • lap 341: 3:54.367
  • Toyota gained 125.524 sec

Note that the last safety car happened just after some pitstop chaos: Kristensen came in on lap 330 for diesel, on lap 333 for diesel + tyres (because of puncture) and on lap 334 for wets, while Toyota #8 did a driver change (Davidson -> Buemi) on lap 331 and Buemi came in on lap 333 for wets.

So in total Toyota #8 gained 3:41.210 on Audi #2; or 1:35.686 if you ignore the last safety car. In part, this is the result of Audi's strategic decision to do a driver change (McNish -> Duval) during the 10th safety car period.

Steffen Spies made a graph of the gap between Audi #2 and Toyota #8:

source: http://blog.derspies.de/?p=450

You can clearly see how Audi lost 1 minute because of the 7th safety car. This is the big drop around lap 181.

[Adam43]

See the gradient - that rate of increase is the business. By eye, 2s a lap...

Thanks

[Martin90]

Great analysis gwyllion!

[gwyllion]

Credit for the plot of the gap goes to Steffen Spies.

[TF110]

Let me clarify, I said

"it seemed like every time the weather changed a safety car followed. So the part where Toyota may have gained, they couldn't because the green flag period was so short."

Thats why I said they lost out during the safety cars. I'm not being exact, but how many times did the SC come out during a wet or mixed condition? So while the thought that Toyota might have been a little better in those conditions would have helped them, how much time of actual racing was done in those periods? There a graph for that?

Also, when I said 9 laps, I wasn't counting the out-lap, but a full tour (out laps already passed the start/finish line). Thats just how I was following the pit stop procedure, nothing official. Sorry for the confusion

[cmk]

I'm not completely convinced that the relative pace we observed during changeable conditions actually reflects the outright pace of both teams in such a situation. Particularly when comparing pace near the start of the race, or between #2 and the Toyotas through the night, it could be argued that Audi had more to lose by pushing to the limit. I know they weren't taking anything for granted but there was good evidence in favour of a pace advantage in dry conditions, and practice had suggested a pace advantage in the wet and changing conditions too.

In the position Audi occupied for most of the race, they must have known it was theirs to throw away, and thus may not have been on the limit. This isn't certainly the case, but the best evaluation would come not from looking at #2 but at #1 after its delay. Analysis of changeable conditions is hampered by different tyre strategies etc, and by the potential for outright driver pace differences as well, but by my recollection Andre Lotterer was absolutely flying in #1 in the wet-to-dry period after the SC for the #54 Ferrari, often several seconds faster than the other P1s. In the dark. With no windshield wiper. If that is what a hampered-visibility Audi could do with nothing to lose, phenomenal driver aside, what could #2 have done if the race was truly at stake?

[Articus]

I actually think that Audi was especially nervoud having the number 2 car maybe be caught by a Toyota because the 2 car actually seemed to me to be the slowest of all the Audi's. McNish and Kristensen were simply not laying down the same times as the rest of the Audi gang and it wasn't the car becase Duval had the pace. This is probably the most tame I have seen McNish in a race. He seemed very cautious.

[Acid09]

Originally Posted by Articus

I actually think that Audi was especially nervoud having the number 2 car maybe be caught by a Toyota because the 2 car actually seemed to me to be the slowest of all the Audi's. McNish and Kristensen were simply not laying down the same times as the rest of the Audi gang and it wasn't the car becase Duval had the pace. This is probably the most tame I have seen McNish in a race. He seemed very cautious.

That's no surprise though, is it? McNish has had his share of mistakes in the past few years, starting with the crash in 2011 and last year's crash that cost his crew the race.

[haribo]

Originally Posted by Acid09

That's no surprise though, is it? McNish has had his share of mistakes in the past few years, starting with the crash in 2011 and last year's crash that cost his crew the race.

True - I expect that the drivers were given explicit warnings to not take risks in traffic. I think it's very telling how many collisions there were between LMP1 cars and GTE cars this year than previous years

[gwyllion]

Audi #2 had a comfortable lead early on and on a dry condition they had a solid performance advantage. So it was not worth taking unnecessary risks lapping traffic in the mixed/wet conditions, in order to gain a few seconds.

[Gingers4Justice]

Originally Posted by Acid09

That's no surprise though, is it? McNish has had his share of mistakes in the past few years, starting with the crash in 2011 and last year's crash that cost his crew the race.

And he was all the better for it. The number 2 Audi looked one of the most comfortable cars on track - and so it should have done. It won because it kept out of trouble.

Nice to see the Toyota drivers also keeping it on the grey stuff.

[dxk1]

This thread has certainly lived up to its name. Can we now just admit that it is no longer a thread and has morphed into a saga?

DK

[Aysedasi]

You're right there.....

[tyronnezx]

BIG Question here. with Webber going to Porsche, does this mean Buemi will land the Redbull seat, being the reserve driver afterall?

[Aysedasi]

No, can't see it. One Seb is surely quite enough.......

[CTD]

Originally Posted by Aysedasi

No, can't see it. One Seb is surely quite enough.......

Seb vs. Seb?
Imagine the sentence:
"Sebastian, Sebastian is faster than you!, you understand?"

[Aysedasi]

That would be priceless.....

[zanfo zanfagni]

Originally Posted by CTD

Seb vs. Seb?
Imagine the sentence:
"Sebastian, Sebastian is faster than you!, you understand?"

surnames exist too or maybe they will receive codenames.

[Starfish Primer]

Originally Posted by Aysedasi

That would be priceless.....

Citroen WRC team 2011, Seb Loeb & Seb Ogier.

[TF110]

It looks like Kimi is on RB's list. Buemi is very talented though, I am glad he's on Toyota's team. It was really impressive to watch him in the car, right up there with his teammates who're arguably two of the best drivers in these cars. Another thing not many are talking about is how quick Toyota fixed the #7. That was great to see them be able to hold 4th after Lapierre crashed.

[Bandicoot17]

Originally Posted by TF110

It looks like Kimi is on RB's list. Buemi is very talented though, I am glad he's on Toyota's team. It was really impressive to watch him in the car, right up there with his teammates who're arguably two of the best drivers in these cars. Another thing not many are talking about is how quick Toyota fixed the #7. That was great to see them be able to hold 4th after Lapierre crashed.

Whilst the safety car did help them out there, I was expecting the worse after last seasons fragile car. Seems the work they did on making the car easier to repair payed off massively.

[deggis]

Originally Posted by tyronnezx

BIG Question here. with Webber going to Porsche, does this mean Buemi will land the Redbull seat, being the reserve driver afterall?

Reserve driver spot doesn't mean much in terms of advancing, at least not for a driver who has already had a chance. I don't think Buemi is even in the rumors, unlike Toro Rosso's Ricciardo/Vergne + Raikkonen.

[TF110]

Originally Posted by Bandicoot17

Whilst the safety car did help them out there, I was expecting the worse after last seasons fragile car. Seems the work they did on making the car easier to repair payed off massively.

Well keeping 4th wasn't the surprise to me, it was the time spent fixing it. A little under 30 minutes and the car was back out.

[Rennen]

Originally Posted by gwyllion

That is a personal opinion that is not backed by the facts.

The gap between Audi #2 and Toyota #8 changed in the following manner during the different safety car periods.

• safety car 2 + 3
  • lap 75: 2:14.250
  • lap 81: 1:27.882
  • Toyota gained 46.368 sec
• safety car 4
  • lap 117: 2:42.926
  • lap 122: 3:44.032
  • Toyota lost 61.106 sec
• safety car 5
  • lap 133: 3:22.493
  • lap 138: 3:31.076
  • Toyota lost 8.583 sec
• safety car 6
  • lap 171: 3:14.801
  • lap 176: 3:34.756
  • Toyota lost 19.955 sec
• safety car 7
  • lap 180: 3:32.191
  • lap 191: 2:31.207
  • Toyota gained 60.984 sec
• safety car 8 + 9
  • lap 255: 3:50.693
  • lap 267: 4:34.988
  • Toyota lost 44.295 sec
• safety car 10
  • lap 272: 5:47.037
  • lap 281: 3:44.764
  • Toyota gained 122.273 sec
• safety car 11
  • lap 333: 5:59.891
  • lap 341: 3:54.367
  • Toyota gained 125.524 sec

Note that the last safety car happened just after some pitstop chaos: Kristensen came in on lap 330 for diesel, on lap 333 for diesel + tyres (because of puncture) and on lap 334 for wets, while Toyota #8 did a driver change (Davidson -> Buemi) on lap 331 and Buemi came in on lap 333 for wets.

So in total Toyota #8 gained 3:41.210 on Audi #2; or 1:35.686 if you ignore the last safety car. In part, this is the result of Audi's strategic decision to do a driver change (McNish -> Duval) during the 10th safety car period.

Interesting stats...Davidson lost time during lap 325 pit stop when he removed the streering wheel for a mechanic to find something floating around amongst the pedals and then had to pit early on lap 331 as he too also had a puncture!

[TF110]

Autosport has a good few words with Vasselon quoting the 2014 car will be new and states the design crew is 100% towards next years car! I hope the fruits of their labor showed they could challenge someone like Audi and perhaps with more funding they can even better challenge.