MotoGP 2023

[Gerard C]

Not my fault, his:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I8UJce03p3s
About his bike it seems that MM shares the same feelings with Fabio. hard time for Japanese, management at Yam' and mechanics at Honda Repsol!



Stupid race of the Saturday results: Martin, Bagnaia, Miller, Marini and wondeful Zarco! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IchKZWrR0WU

[GORDON STREETER]

Well Martin wins again and could well be the GP champ this year, although a satellite bike beating the works won't go down well with Ducati.
I suppose it might as well be called the Ducati Championship this year unless the KTM and APRILIA factories can just fine tune their bikes in the handling department that bit more, as they don't seem down on power?
I would think that Quartararo must wish that he could just "walk away" at this moment as he is actually slower than last year! and as for Honda ? I am surprised that Marquez hasn't used a "buy out" of his contract (if he can)?
However, it is good in one respect that the Japs have got to think again in the development of their bikes as they are "also rans" in the WSB series that are being beaten every weekend (like last year) by a Ducati.
The downside will be (like what has already happened unfortunately) less manufacturers on the grid.

[Gerard C]

Good analysis Gordon. May be Ducati worked better on the "new" Marelli ECU and their partnership with Shell, fuel and lubricants, gives better results? As to Quartararo it seems that he's already away, taking risks now would be stupid. As to Marquez, he's back to square one!

Podium: Martin/ Ducati Pramac; Bagnaia/ Ducati; Zarco/ Ducati Pramac; hairy finish betwenn the two first.

[S griffin]

As we go into the summer break, it seems the others need to dig deeper if they want to beat Bagnaia. He’s on fire and he seems to have gotten the mistakes out of his system early on this year

As for Marquez, he needs to leave Honda and find a better bike if he’s not going to be left behind

[Gerard C]

And now Yamaha to ask their test pilote, good old Cal Crutchlow, to race a M1 at Japan GP. Poor Quartararo… Maio Meregalli could be the second dummy-tester-racer. The same Meregalli, in 2020, almost gave up sayin' that the test team "was not able to work properly"!

[Gerard C]

Between confidence crisis and growing awareness, there's something wrong in another japanse team it seems. Alberto Puig, Honda Repsol team principal, said that he's conscious that they are unable ATM to dramatically improve their bikes adding it will take a long time to reach an acceptable level. This is confirmed by Stefan Bradl, official test rider, and even more obvious watching the results (bar America's GP). Ducati wiping out the competition? With less than a month to go before Silverstone what can be done to stop the red wave (Pramac/268 points, RHT 20 points!)? Probably nothing unless they use another track layout…

[N Martin]

Absolutely appalling conditions at Silverstone. Surprised they ran qualifying tbh I'm sure other popular series wouldn't have run in those conditions. Congrats to Bezza who got the pole which took the sting out of the high speed off he had at the end of the session. Hope it clears up a bit for the sprint later. Forecast not looking promising though.

[Gerard C]

Well done Alex M. Yep bad weather I fear.

[N Martin]

Yep good job by Alex Marquez. Everyone finished that sprint race which is very good considering the conditions. Top Japanese manufacturer was 15th. How times have changed. How the mighty have fallen.

[Gerard C]

Originally Posted by N Martin

How times have changed. How the mighty have fallen.

Sooooo true!

[Gerard C]

Its not new that statistics can be "interpreted" i-e depending on if one see the glass half empty or half full. Here's a good example, based on facts. Are Moto GP Sprint Races really dangerous. PS Sorry N Martin, could not find it in a proper language I think it was first written in Spanish. I'm sure you'll catch the spririt and see what I mean: https://fr.motorsport.com/motogp/new...2023/10495408/

[v8supes]

Originally Posted by N Martin

Absolutely appalling conditions at Silverstone. Surprised they ran qualifying tbh I'm sure other popular series wouldn't have run in those conditions. Congrats to Bezza who got the pole which took the sting out of the high speed off he had at the end of the session. Hope it clears up a bit for the sprint later. Forecast not looking promising though.

Yep, i was surprised that neither the earlier practice session and/or qualifying were not red flagged at any point. IMO Qualifying should have been red flagged about 5 minutes from the end but it doesn't matter at this point.

This Silverstone event feels slightly weird on TV IMO. Like it doesn't feel like a "normal" Moto GP event. Normally it feels like theres a great atmosphere, lots of noise from the crowd, lots of people around, plenty of sun (cant be helped). Not sure if its because the fans are so far away from the track or that the numbers of spectators didnt look amazing (due to weather likely).

Still i think the Moto GP bikes are fantastic around Silverstone, very fast, fast direction changes and a great sound. Glad that the Sprint race was able to be held and im looking forward to tomorrow when the weather should be better.

[Gerard C]

Oops, Bezzecchi could regret Silverstone at the end of the season. Fantastic race for Aleix Espargaro overtaking Francesco Bagnaia during the very last lap. Binder 3rd, Oliveira 4th Viñales 5th. Congrats to Fabio and Marini, they can remove a fairing when riding and with no spanner…

[GORDON STREETER]

Well the qualifying was certainly better to watch on the TV than actually being there ! Like others have mentioned I was surprised that it was allowed to carry on with the risk of injuries !
I have gone off of Jake Dixon for a while after his rant about Daren Binder in the Moto2, to me it looked like "he himself" was solely or "mostly" to blame for his crash. I think he should take a note of the old saying "you can't win the race on the first corner or lap but you can certainly lose it !
Brilliant thinking by Aleix Espagaro to win the GP, unlike Bezzecchi who obviously wasn't
Moto3 was it's usual "edge of the sofa" affair, it was a shame that Scott Ogden didn't start in his qualifying position, I don't know if he stalled it or had another problem ?

[Gerard C]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qqI1-YJISLw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wmESCyYOjEk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3hVdxAPUWjs
MM only news: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=48vPhynd0Qo

[Gerard C]

In spite of not really great results at Siverstone, Fabio Q is satisfied with his new bike. As to Zarco leaving Ducati Pramac for Honda next season I think this news belongs to psychological war more than serious announcement. But with french riders be prepared to strange things happening…

[Schummy]

Sorry for disrupting the natural flow of this "regular" MotoGP 2023 thread, but somehow I was unable to post this in a new thread(?). This is a bit of statistical analysis about the chances of get the title (well, sort of) in the three categories.

Firstly, it must be said that these scenarios are valid as long as there is not any radical change in the current landscape for riders and bikes. For example, bad injuries, like Pol's or Enea`s, or radical changes in any manufacturer, like, last year Yamaha's second half of the season.

====== WARNING: STATISTICAL GIBBERISH SECTION =====

I have used an statistical tool to measure the importance of the gap in points between a rider and the leading rider, taking into account the number of races to go. Using a bit of statistical theory, that measure is not just the gap divided by the number of remaining races but the gap divided by the square root of the number of remaining races. It seems nor very intuitive but it is one of those "strange" thing of the statistical variance

The final result gives for every rider the effort to overcome the gap against the leader. In short, it gives the equivalent gap to overcome with just ONE RACE TO GO, i. e. the gap to overcome if we had to go tomorrow to the race in Valencia.

=====END OF THE GIBBERISH SECTION =======

Sorry for all that babbling, but I thought it could be useful to some people interested in numbers

MOTOGP:

BAG    0   0    
JMAR  41  11.1  
BEZ   47  12.7  
BIN   83  22.4  
ZAR   92  24.8

First column, current gap. Second column: equivalent gap if there was only one race to go.

So, the 41 points gap from Martin to Bagnaia is approx as difficult to overcome in 11 GPs (sprint + full race) as overcoming 11.1 points in just one full race. Not easy, but doable.

In comparison, Binder has a 83 gap, that is equivalent to overcoming 22.4 point in one race! He would have to win AND Bagnaia would have to score zero points. It is "possible"... but very, very difficult to happen if we have to bet it in Valencia.

In short: Martin and Bezz are still contenders although it is not easy for them. Binder and Zarco are remote contenders. The rest are extremely unlikely to get the title.

This is not just an intuitive opinion but the result of a (dry) statistical reasoning. However, I, like everyone of us, can have our particular preference or feeling about what is going to happen.

MOTO 2:

ACO   0   0    
ARB   2   0.6  
DIX  52  15.7  
CAN  60  18.1  
LOP  64  19.3  
SAL  81  24.4  
ALD  82  24.7

Obviously, Acosta and Toni are virtually equal in numerical perspectives, this is not a novelty for anyone. There is no more clear contenders, but Dixon, Canet and Lopez have a theoretical shot to the title. Salac and Aldeguer are remote contenders. The rest, including Lowes, are realistically gone.

MOTO 3:

HOL   0        
SAS  22   6.6  
MAS  32   9.6  
ORT  34  10.3  
ONC  42  12.7  
ALO  51  15.4  
MOR  55  16.6  
RUE  81  24.4

It is not a surprise that Moto 3 is more undecided that the other categories. It usually happens this way.

The realistic contenders against Holgado are Sasaki, Masia and Ortola, they have a not too difficult gap with the leader, particularly Sasaki. A bit beyond is Oncu and possibly even Alonso and Moreira. All of them have some possibilities against Holgado, but I don't know if I would name them "contenders", just as things are now. Finally, Rueda is a very remote contender.

I hope it has been useful for someone to asses the numerical reality of the gaps in this central point of the season (August). I will repeat again that those remarks are not my personal opinion but what the cold numbers tell us.


End of the disruption!

[GORDON STREETER]

[QUOTE=Schummy;4172908 End of the disruption![/QUOTE]
No disruption at all, if Bagnia can keep a cool head he should win it as others are taking points off each other. Unfortunately I was hoping to be at the next round but I now won't be in Spain until early next month.

[S griffin]

I think we beginning to witness a Bagnaia era. I can see winning the next 3 titles easily. Although there will still be enough times the others beat him, to stop it getting too dull

[Gerard C]

Originally Posted by GORDON STREETER

No disruption at all

Not at all! Thanks for the job you've done Schummy.

[Schummy]

Thanks for your kindness!

Bagnaia... We need a good bike for Fabio for next season! Come on, Mr.Rivola, Mr.Beirer, put money in the bait to fish a Quartershark. ;-)

Jarvis looks more and more like one of those generals in the Star Wars' Empire spaceships. And we know how it finished.

Let's not speak about Bautista/Ducati in the sister series... but it is a thing for the WSBK forum.

[Gerard C]

Just hope Fabio will stay safe and take no risks with a bike that can't win. Would be wise. He's better remain focused on his own structure management ATM. IMO.

[S griffin]

Originally Posted by Gerard C

Just hope Fabio will stay safe and take no risks with a bike that can't win. Would be wise. He's better remain focused on his own structure management ATM. IMO.

That’s the worry, his frustrations might get the better of him and he might end up pushing a little too hard, have a crash and ending up injured. I think he needs to focus more on developing the bike, so they can come back stronger next year

[GORDON STREETER]

Well Bagnaia won the sprint race with ease, so unless he is injured at all the writing is on the wall.

[Gerard C]

I wonder how badly Bezzecchi has been injured. A lot of discussions about RC and stewards decisions it seems. As to french riders, Zarco was not too happy about the rumor he could go to Honda next year. He should make an official announcement at the end of the weekend. So, Ducati or not and if it's Ducati which team will he go for? Thanks to C Crutchlow, Fabio says to be very happy with his bike evolutions… Salary, PR people, other? He will have a long lap to think about this.