Toward the title 2012

[Born Racer]

Whatever anyone says, Seb will be an excellent three-time champion.

Fernando's been mighty this year and it's harsh for him, but a lot of F1 is about the car. 'Twas ever thus and t'ever should be.

[Schummy]

Following the gap analysis, same quick conclusions after Korea.

Now Hamilton is basically out of the race ("very unlikely"), like he has admitted himself.

Raikkonen is approaching a hard point soon, if he doesn't make something even sooner. If he loses >=6 points to Vettel in India, he will be out as well, like Lewis and Mark.

Alonso is still in a "comfortable" gap, but if he loses 12 or more points to Vettel in India, he will have no easy title options.

To maintain or improve their chances again Vettel they need to reduce the gap in the next race by:
Alonso 1 point
Raikkonen 5 points
Hamilton 8 points
Webber 8 points

If they don't do it, their options will decrease (even more). For example, Hamilton winning in India and Vettel getting second, actually make worse the options for Lewis, in relation with today. Lewis would need a better result (against Vettel) to improve his chances. It is a sign of how bad his options are.

[Bononi]

Great stuff ! Another exciting end of season !

[Aysedasi]

Originally Posted by Born Racer

Whatever anyone says, Seb may be an excellent three-time champion.

Fernando's been mighty this year and it's harsh for him, but a lot of F1 is about the car. 'Twas ever thus and t'ever should be.

He isn't the champion yet.

[Marbot]

Originally Posted by Aysedasi

He isn't the champion yet.

[Schummy]

I think SV could or not make a good three champion, but I don't think he is an excellent one. It would be a peculiar WDCx3 with a run of 3 WCDs with same team and a pretty great car, I dare to say.

Ironically, the only other WDCx3 driver that can be compared with this good fortune is Ayrton Senna! AS was a great driver, of course, but he enjoyed great cars in his titles. The "little detail" is he had one of them against some Frenchmen (with a big nose) as team mate.

Anyway I think SV is one of the outstanding drivers nowadays. He is mostly faultless, but apparently he needs a great car to maximize his magic. I need to see from him a string of magic results with a difficult car. Sometimes the best seasons of a WDC is one without a title, but with great results.

[Bononi]

Originally Posted by Schummy

I need to see from him a string of magic results with a difficult car. Sometimes the best seasons of a WDC is one without a title, but with great results.

Like that Toro Rosso he drove before going to RBR ?

[Aysedasi]

What amuses me is the posts saying how Vettel is going to win the WDC having not had the best car as if the RB is some kind of midfield 'dog' that he's had to drag around on his back all season...

[Bononi]

Originally Posted by Aysedasi

What amuses me is the posts saying how Vettel is going to win the WDC having not had the best car as if the RB is some kind of midfield 'dog' that he's had to drag around on his back all season...

Adrian Newey's underdog !

[Aysedasi]

If he wins it, let there be no mistake, he'll deserve it, but let's not deify him just yet!

[Bononi]

Originally Posted by Aysedasi

If he wins it, let there be no mistake, he'll deserve it, but let's not deify him just yet!

Well, yeah, you never can count Teflonso out and the "best" team !

[Schummy]

Originally Posted by Bononi

Like that Toro Rosso he drove before going to RBR ?

Magic?

Vettel won a race with STR (the 6th best team in 2008). Maldonado has won a race with Williams, the 8th best team in 2012.

Maybe Maldonado is going to be another great three times WDC

[Bononi]

Originally Posted by Schummy

Maybe Maldonado is going to be another great three times WDC

Schummy, I know you're good with stats and numbers, but don't push it !!!!

[Schummy]

Lol

Maldy has done already his magic in Montmelo, now he just need a Newey car ;-) And perhaps a blonde dyed hair.

[Bononi]

Originally Posted by Schummy

Lol

Maldy has done already his magic in Montmelo, now he just need a Newey car ;-) And perhaps a blonde dyed hair.

The idea of seeing him with blonde hair is painful... a moustache would be more appropriate !

[Schummy]

Another way to look at the data in this season. We can calculate the score of each "private match" of every driver against every other driver. For example, Vettel beats Alonso 9-7 out of 16 races.

The matrix for the first 7 drivers is:

      VET ALO RAI HAM WEB BUT ROS 
VET    =   9  10  10½ 10½ 10  11½ = 61½
ALO    7   =  12   9½  8  11  12  = 59½
RAI    6   4   =   8   9  10  12  = 49
HAM    5½  6½  8   =   8½  9   8½ = 46
WEB    5½  8   7   7½  =   7½ 11  = 46½
BUT    6   5   6   7   8½  =   8  = 40½
ROS    4½  4   4   7½  5   8   =  = 33

I have chosen the drivers who have achieved 1st or 2nd at least twice. If the two drivers are out of points, it is considered as a tie.

Vettel beats everybody. Only Alonso could beat Vettel, and only if he beats Seb 4-0 in the next GPs. Alonso loses to Vettel and ties 8-8 with Webber.

After them, Raikkonen and Hamilton are tied 8-8 and beat Webber, Button and Rosberg. So, KR and LH would be in 3rd-4th position in the ranking.

At the bottom, Webber, Button are more mixed (Webber ties with Alonso, but Button beats Webber). Rosberg is in 7th position.

A simple resume of the table is adding the scores for each driver, it is showed at the right of the table. Notably, this sum is the same as using a 6-5-4-3-2-1 score system among those drivers. With this method Alonso is just 2 points behind Vettel; it equals to two positions, an easy gap to overcome in four races.