Recession or opportunity?

[simon drabble]

Originally Posted by Peter Mallett

The Masters Magny course event was for mostly F1 and the prototypes etc. I don't believe we have many posters from those categories.

So the upper echelons of historic racing dont post on ten tenths - what is that telling us?!! Ironically they are the players who should not be effected by the downwave.....

[Al Weyman]

An FIA Mustang will leave little change from £60k

So race a a late 60's or 70's Camaro, quicker and far far cheaper. Its that old pre-66 FIA thing again which excludes all Camaros even 67's and puts false values on pre-66 iron.

[Peter Mallett]

Al,

Whether we like it or not, that is historic racing as far as anyone with any clout is concerned.

and a grid full of Camaros is as bad as a grid full of Mustangs!

[Peter Mallett]

Originally Posted by simon drabble

So the upper echelons of historic racing dont post on ten tenths - what is that telling us?!! Ironically they are the players who should not be effected by the downwave.....

It's telling us that they aren't that interested in the sport for anything but their own pleasure? And/or they don't give a stuff about opinions. Your second point may be correct but only if they aren't property tycoons etc.

[terence]

Peter,this is not poking fun but dont go into the race build/prep business,24k "B" and 60k for a Mustang?Prices like that would put a lot of people out of business. The engine alone for my car,had I not been involved in the prep/build etc I would have had a bill for 12k.Mustang unit?18.5k from a different source.
How come we are classified as be-ing in recession when the Hendrix Stratocaster goes for £280k? My bets that it was Zef who bought it.
Magny Cour,heard through the grape vine of a five speed Cobra,just shows this phenomenons not confined to Healeys/E,Types.

[Al Weyman]

and a grid full of Camaros is as bad as a grid full of Mustangs!

At least they would be affordable. :-)

18k for a Mustang engine!

[Al Weyman]

Magny Cour,heard through the grape vine of a five speed Cobra,just shows this phenomenons not confined to Healeys/E,Types.

And to my mind that is what makes a mockery of this FIA 'Historic' (yeah right) racing. Give me the honesty and simplicity of CTCRC rules any day.

[Tim Falce]

Originally Posted by Al Weyman

At least they would be affordable. :-)

18k for a Mustang engine!

and there's me thinking I'd broke the bank paying £50 for my latest Jaguar race engine.

[Peter Mallett]

Originally Posted by terence bower

Peter,this is not poking fun but dont go into the race build/prep business,24k "B" and 60k for a Mustang?Prices like that would put a lot of people out of business. The engine alone for my car,had I not been involved in the prep/build etc I would have had a bill for 12k.Mustang unit?18.5k from a different source.

I know, I was using the figures as a guide.

How come we are classified as be-ing in recession when the Hendrix Stratocaster goes for £280k? My bets that it was Zef who bought it. Magny Cour,heard through the grape vine of a five speed Cobra,just shows this phenomenons not confined to Healeys/E,Types.

Because that was probably bought by someone who will rent it to Hard Rock Cafe for a fee then sell it on. Let's not confuse real living costs with business investment. And of course we know that cars are usually the first to suffer in a recession.

I really can't see how increases in food and heating in the UK at around 20% are not seen as inflationary. Here in Qatar inflation is running at 15% and this is an oil rich state! Flight costs have increased by 20% in the last year. All of this impacts us racers. All of this is also evidence of a recession because people just aren't traveling (witness reduced traffic jams) etc.

I'm not arguing that there isn't a recession because its there I'm afraid. I'm asking what impact this will have on our sport.

Al, keep repeating the mantra and someone will believe you. I've already said I think it will benefit CTCRC, CSCC etc. who run to non FIA regs and most agree. FISC is another that may see an impact because of its away weekend and long distance format, although in their case they don't run FIA.

[terence]

Ultimately,in Historics,I dont think there will be much difference.In recessions,there are always those who benefit,it might involve lowering a few prices,but the trick is to be ahead of everyone else.

[simon drabble]

I am with Peter on this - you must not confuse the asset collection of the uber rich with the effect of inflation on the middle classes.

There is by every economists definition a recession so back on thread what opportunities exist. As yet probably none but next Spring could see a different story. Any possible buyer would be well advised to keep his powder dry at this time.

The one fly in the ointment is that historic race cars are normally an emotional trade. Most real enthusiasts will buy what they like rather than just getting a front runner (as you might in current series where you are beholdant to sponsors). As such if you love Lotus Cortina's and a car to your standard of prep comes up then unless the seller is distressed there is not much room for negotiations so the idea of "nicking it" is not really there.

[Peter Mallett]

Terry. So its an opportunity then?

BTW. Just seen on TV that Bentley is going on to a three day week. When was the last time that happened?

Simon, I concur, that is really where I'm coming from.

[simon drabble]

mid 70's - similar times.... interestingly the only race series catering for historics running back then was HSCC.....

[terence]

Opportunity wise I think Simon has summed it up really in that those who have the means and wanting a particular car or whatever, will still be willing to pay for what they want,if the goods can be supplied at a lower rate than the over inflated prices that have been seen these last couple of years,then that is where the opportunity arises,that's where be-ing at the front supply wise is the advantage.
I would have thought this is something Simon's wife has been thinking about,what with needing to open a second shop,I hope it turns out well for her,as indeed for anyone who is willing to take the initiative.
As for Bentley,that could purely be a result of too many on the market,and saving some money until stocks drop in number.Bentley has a world wide market,not just confined the the Y UK,just as soon as the Sultan of Brunei decides the family needs another twenty cars-----

[Peter Mallett]

Terry, I agree in general terms and yes the Bentley thing could be as you say. However consider this. Oil revenues will be significantly lower than previously, on the home markets that means nothing but the OPEC states are now on record as stating that $100 per barrel is the lowest price they'll stand. As I said elsewhere $90 is probably its real price. Its down to 103 at the moment.

That means the taps will be shut down to reduce availability and increase profits.

Then there's the US which last month lost another 80k jobs so less people to buy that fuel.

Again you confuse the uber rich (the Sultan) and their willingness to spend, with reality which is there will be less people able to buy the products because they either can't afford it or they don't have job, therefore need to save. Anyone who buys a Bentley is likely to be able to buy more than one so when Bentley says the market has died we need to think about it. likewise the Russian market is feeling the pinch due to the oil price, who's been buying those football clubs?

Simon, you are indeed correct it was the HSCC and I used to enjoy the aston Martin meeting at Brands. IIRC a man by the name of Mike cox used to drive a really quick lotus 23 at that time.

I have to say I don't think I've seen anything as aggressive as this in my lifetime. So I hope it will be short and that we can continue to enjoy our sport, or even grab a bargain or two.

[terence]

I think that is the key Peter,the agressivenes of it is just how it happened in America,unfortunately rather a lot of business practices's are now very Americanised so we have to accept these blips every so often.The American ecconomy is now showing signs of gathering pace again,fortunately they have been there and done that to get out of it again,lesson's learnt.

[Peter Mallett]

Um no it hasn't stopped in the US. The dollar is coming back because there's less people able to buy goods and there's an election coming up. They haven't burned as much fuel this year because of the foregoing reason. It just is not a blip. I work for a US/European/Qatari JV and I can tell you we have some jumpy people around at present.

[midgetman]

Errr....is it surprising that Bentley and other luxury "gas-guzzlers" are losing their UK sales? When motorists in large cars are being turned into social paraiahs by this governemt and its histrionic friends? We've had so long being brow-beaten by the woolly-hatted brigade that maybe it's a case of "can't beat 'em, join 'em".

[Al Weyman]

The reason it has happened so quick and who knows could disappear just as quickly is because everything is done on line and in many cases automated so if things start going tits up somewhere the computers will click in and do what is required even in the dead of night. That never happen even as recently as the early 90's so lets all not start jumping off hgh buildings just yet and see what happens. I personally think food is still reasonably priced in the UK and was talking to an eastern european on this the otehr week and yes rents and wages are higher here but apparantly there is not much difference in basic essentials.

[Peter Mallett]

Originally Posted by midgetman

Errr....is it surprising that Bentley and other luxury "gas-guzzlers" are losing their UK sales? When motorists in large cars are being turned into social paraiahs by this governemt and its histrionic friends? We've had so long being brow-beaten by the woolly-hatted brigade that maybe it's a case of "can't beat 'em, join 'em".

Um, Bentley is a worldwide market. But you do have a point, it just isn't linked to cash.

[john ruston]

The US will not jump out of recession its just that they are better off than UK or Europe.The US problems will last until 2010 and it is only then Europe will follow out of problems.The glass is half empty in most places.Its Bentleys world wide sales that are down but there again who wants a car driven by Footballers

[midgetman]

Originally Posted by Peter Mallett

Um, Bentley is a worldwide market. But you do have a point, it just isn't linked to cash.

Mmmmm, I was also kind of alluding to the wider news yesterday that new car sales were down. But alluding badly

But on the thread title, any change in the business environment is an opportunity. The least deserving businesses will be weeded out, the rest will have to improve, too. If we can improve more than the next guy, the recession will be good for us. And that will be good for the consumer, too.

Hmmm, I'm not known for being this positive, must take more water with it in future

As regards motorsport - it'll still be there in ALL its widest forms, just perhaps not the "professional" motor racing we've become used to. A resurgence in cheaper grass roots stuff would be good, and provide new competitors for when racing really kicks off again.

IMO bigger threats are environmentalism (of the hysterical kind) and competing family activities. It's a very selfish sport, and a big drain on time as well. There's lots of SWMBOs and Ankle Biters who don't appreciate it. But that's another thread!

[simon drabble]

Originally Posted by john ruston

The US will not jump out of recession its just that they are better off than UK or Europe.The US problems will last until 2010 and it is only then Europe will follow out of problems.The glass is half empty in most places.Its Bentleys world wide sales that are down but there again who wants a car driven by Footballers

fortunately the footballers chose to ignore the Arnage T - a proper car IMHO..

[Peter Mallett]

Originally Posted by midgetman

As regards motorsport - it'll still be there in ALL its widest forms, just perhaps not the "professional" motor racing we've become used to. A resurgence in cheaper grass roots stuff would be good, and provide new competitors for when racing really kicks off again.

Yes, I think you may be right.

Originally Posted by midgetman

IMO bigger threats are environmentalism (of the hysterical kind) and competing family activities. It's a very selfish sport, and a big drain on time as well. There's lots of SWMBOs and Ankle Biters who don't appreciate it. But that's another thread!

The second one has always been there. The solution is to take your girlfriend to her first event at a very wet Silverstone in September. If she comes back for more you're stuffed for racing until the mortgage is sorted.

[LYNX]

It's a pity the Olympics have finished - at least the news was mostly "GOOD". People will always prioritise, whether the little old lady buying cat food rather than turning up her heating, or the person who would rather race at the cost of a holiday, nights out, a mistress etc. I have never had the luxury of racing and not having to keep umpteen balls in the air to do it. Therfore I think there will always be people who wish to race and so long as Brown and Darling keep their noses out it, we will weather the storm