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30 Sep 2010, 05:43 (Ref:2766969) | #51 | |
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Based on current car performance and no DNFs for any of the frontrunners (), I predict:
Japan: Vettel, Webber, Alonso, Hamilton, Button, Massa Korea: Alonso, Webber, Vettel, Hamilton, Massa, Button Brazil: Webber, Vettel, Alonso, Massa, Hamilton, Button Abu Dhabi: Vettel, Alonso, Webber, Hamilton, Massa, Button Resulting in... Webber - 278pts (5 wins) Alonso - 264 (5 wins) Vettel - 264 (4 wins) Hamilton - 228 (3 wins) If only it were that simple (IF spelt backwards?)... A poor race or a DNF for anyone will obviously drastically change everything. I think Japan should still be a Red Bull track, and Vettel was mesmeric there last year. I think Korea (if it runs) will be more to Ferrari's liking, though very close - it seems like a Hungary-type circuit, but with more genuinely slow corners... Brazil will also be very close - and don't rule out Massa playing an important part here. I think the Red Bull will be quicker, and we saw what Webber did here last year. Again, I think Abu Dhabi will be touch and go between Red Bull and Ferrari... Vettel, again, was very impressive here last year, but I can see the Red Bulls struggling to keep Ferrari behind on the long straights and slow corners... As for McLaren, I think they are really going to have to pull something out of the bag to give themselves even a small chance... I think they are closest to Ferrari on the circuits where Red Bull are dominant - high speed, high downforce. Such a situation bodes well for Red Bull, as McLaren and Ferrari could possibly take points away from each other while they rack up serious points in Japan and possibly Brazil too. |
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30 Sep 2010, 08:57 (Ref:2767013) | #52 | ||
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Interesting piece by Jonathan Noble on Autosport web site agrees with Bernie that the new points sytem is not working and makes the case that the wide apread of points now available at each race makes drivers who have a couple of bad races seem 'out of it'. He quotes Hamilton for his last two races as an example and Alonso for simalr reasons earlier this year. Bernie argued that his medal system would be better but here, I agree with Noble, that would not be so but I also think Bernie was just stirring it
I disgaree with Noble whowever as I think the perceived insurmountable differences are just things generated by the press who have not really got to grips with the number of points for a good position in the next race. The press guys have been used to smaller points differences so that a 20 point gap seems big, give it a year or two and the poor souls will get used to it but then, perhaps writing off a few people's favourites once or twice a season is good press and makes headlines! My view is that the system has worked well both in the battle for #1 and down the field with some decent racing going on for 10th place right up to the end. I have not done a spread sheet of points and compared the results with this year's points and with last year's but would be interested to see how it would have looked at various points. One of the more statistically minded journalists may just do this. |
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30 Sep 2010, 22:45 (Ref:2767499) | #53 | |||
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Quote:
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30 Sep 2010, 23:30 (Ref:2767527) | #54 | |||
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Quote:
i largely agree with you on all counts. The variables as you say will be DNFs, which i have a feeling that all of alonso, webber, vettel and hamilton will have 1 more before the season's out. also, i think button may well play a larger role than you have suggested. He was excellent at abu dhabi last year (though this year we may not get to see it if he's not in the mix). He has that canny ability to pull out a big result even when he's not necessarily the paciest driver of the weekend. so i have a feeling that he will at least do better than 5ths and 6ths in the remaining 4 races. also, i'm a bit dubious that ferrari's upswing will continue all the way to the end of the season (or at least without mclaren having an upswing of their own)... |
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30 Sep 2010, 23:44 (Ref:2767531) | #55 | ||
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I find it very hard to predict how to things may turn out because all the contenders find ways of shooting themselves in the foot. For example, I am still amazed that Webber has the championship lead with the shocking qualifying and starts he has had.
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1 Oct 2010, 00:14 (Ref:2767545) | #56 | |
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Mark's consistency and lack of DNFs has served him well. Only one non-points finish. Think about all of Lewis's DNFs for instance.
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1 Oct 2010, 22:36 (Ref:2767982) | #57 | ||
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Webber reminds me of Button last season... he's managing to keep his advantage, I think he'll get this one.
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2 Oct 2010, 02:07 (Ref:2768013) | #58 | |||
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5 Oct 2010, 01:56 (Ref:2769538) | #59 | |||
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There is an interesting article about the topic from James Allen here.
What I found most interesting is this quote: Quote:
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7 Oct 2010, 09:01 (Ref:2770749) | #60 | ||
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Webber will win.
Just to **** everyone off - it's the Australian way. |
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7 Oct 2010, 10:24 (Ref:2770781) | #61 | ||
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7 Oct 2010, 11:59 (Ref:2770815) | #62 | ||
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"If you're not winning you're not trying." Colin Chapman. |
7 Oct 2010, 12:14 (Ref:2770819) | #63 | ||
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"The more I see of the world, the more am I dissatisfied with it; every day confirms my belief of the inconsistency of all human characters, and of the little dependence which can be placed on the appearance of either merit or sense." -- Elizabeth Bennet, 'Pride & Prejudice' |
7 Oct 2010, 18:00 (Ref:2770964) | #64 | ||
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That's so frickin uncool man! |
7 Oct 2010, 22:49 (Ref:2771108) | #65 | ||
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7 Oct 2010, 23:50 (Ref:2771134) | #66 | ||
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25 Oct 2010, 01:02 (Ref:2779920) | #67 | ||
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the pre-race demeanour of the drivers said a lot about their relative mental states at this stage of the championship.
Webber was skittish and seemed very unsettled prior to the race. He was very focussed on not wanting the race to go ahead, which i think played to his detriment once the race actually got going, as mentally he seemed very negative. Vettel, Alonso and hamilton all seemed far more accepting of the circumstances, and focussed on their own task at hand - ie how they could get the most out of a variable situation. Consequently, i think they were far more switched on and focussed at the restart than webber, who seemed to be wearing his hat of GPDA spokesman rather than a championship contending driver. However, i dont think his crash is the worst thing for mark, as his career has shown he gets the best performances out of himself playing the underdog. So hopefully the race loss is the spark to bring a renewed energy for the final two rounds. i have had the feeling that he's been too focussed on points and podiums since belgium, rather than the real desire for winning that spurred his driving to new levels in silverstone, monaco, spain. Unless he can get back into that headspace, i think he will lose out in the WDC. |
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25 Oct 2010, 01:09 (Ref:2779927) | #68 | |
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Teflonso showed he is a worthy champion and I'm not sure about the others:
Webber - rookie error Vettel - used all his engines and still punishes the old ones when he does'nt have to - dumb Hamilton - (Again, as usual) fries his tyres and makes a rookie error sliding offf and gifting the win to Teflonso. Button - not quick enough, couple of basic errors as well Alonso's tyres were in better shape that anyones at the end. He looks after cars better than anyone except maybe Webber and makes fewer mistakes that the others. Much as I would like to see MW win the title, Teflonso is probably the man who deserves it more. |
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"You can get lucky and win one championship but not two ..." Jamie Whincup. I wonder which person with the initials RK he was referring to. |
25 Oct 2010, 02:22 (Ref:2779955) | #69 | ||
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Mr Webber can still win the title. He is the only one of the three genuine contenders with a powerplant supply that isnt marginal.
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25 Oct 2010, 05:43 (Ref:2779995) | #70 | |
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"You can get lucky and win one championship but not two ..." Jamie Whincup. I wonder which person with the initials RK he was referring to. |
25 Oct 2010, 06:15 (Ref:2780010) | #71 | ||
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Whats not to say that Webbers new engine wasn't damaged in his accident yesterday?
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That's so frickin uncool man! |
25 Oct 2010, 06:30 (Ref:2780018) | #72 | ||
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Just what I was thinking Mr V.
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ยินดีที่ได้รู้จัก |
25 Oct 2010, 07:25 (Ref:2780035) | #73 | |
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I think it's between Alonso, Webber and Vettel now. At the moment I'd like Vettel to win it, because the first two really annoyed me yesterday, but I'll see what I think when I've calmed down.
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25 Oct 2010, 08:07 (Ref:2780063) | #74 | ||
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Looks like Alonso for now. Bad mistake by Webber, Vettel's made too many mistakes all season, Hamilton's just a bit too far away and his cars not as quick and Button's out of it now unless the rest don't finish the next two races. I'm a Button fan but surely he could have got more out of that car yesterday!
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25 Oct 2010, 08:53 (Ref:2780086) | #75 | |
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The McLaren looked very difficult to handle yesterday, as evidenced by Button's spin and Hamilton's little sojourn off-track. A bad day at the office for Jenson, but the pit strategy didn't help.
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