[LM24] The Le Mans 2016 Sunny weather thread

[chernaudi]

This is just great, it's now saying that on Sunday there's a 90% chance of showers and thunderstorms at some point in the day. Just yesterday, it said it would be warm and sunny. I hope that the weather forecast changes for the better for Sunday.

[Deleted]

Sunday, as in this Sunday?

I don't really mind if it rains cats and dogs at the Test, it's not like we're gonna get the truest of true performances out of the top anyway (except maybe at the very end)

[chernaudi]

And it depends on the source. Weather Underground is predicting the 90% chance of rain. Accuweather is predicting isolated showers and fog early in the morning, with a mix of sun and clouds from later morning onwards.

Only thing that both sites agree on right now is the fact the Le Mans and the surrounding areas are under a flood advisory.

[Ospi]

We get pretty detailed weather reports at the track, basically states overcast but dry until 2pm where showers may occur. Hoping it is that way, need some dry running for the first session to let the new drivers get their eyes in and get true ideas of fuel consumption etc.

[CTD]

Chernaudi and Chiana, you two are in for a serious whooping when Ayse sees those comments!

[chernaudi]

Things have changed again. Accuweather is now saying little chance of rain with clouds and sun and morning fog. Weather Underground says 60% chance of rain Sunday. At least it's not 90% like earlier today.

Maybe we should just have someone stand outside at each end of the track at Le Mans and ask them for weather updates during the test at this stage. Because the weather forecasts that I'm looking at could say something entirely different tomorrow.

[whitemr2]

Don't worry it will be fine. I promise.

[PascaLM]

According to Météo-France, we will have 14°C at 9am to 19°C at 1pm and a dry track. In the afternoon, good temperatures from 2 to 6pm with 20-22°C and several drops of dihydrogen monoxide (amount of 0,2 mm according to Metcheck, which is nearly nothing).

[Adam43]

Originally Posted by Mikelancs

long range looks OK!

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Best photo ever


#43

[Mikelancs]

Originally Posted by Adam43

Best photo ever


#43

Recognition at last!

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[vincegail]

[GT6]

OK Vince we get the point, it is raining in France, we just had a downpour here as well. lets hope the sun shines soon see you in a week

[nobster]

hot and very humid over here right now, still time enough for weather changes...

[vincegail]

[kpkorsager]

Hot, dry and sunny in Denmark. Hottest May ever

[Aysedasi]

Same here. Even in the UK it was 27 on the way home from work today....

[GT6]

We just had 20 minutes of torrential rain here in kent

[Simmi]

Just made the mistake of looking at the weather forecast...

[Spyderman]

[whitemr2]

Originally Posted by Simmi

Just made the mistake of looking at the weather forecast...

I don't know how these people from the weather report make a living, they never make a correct prediction. It will be fine don't worry.

[Spyderman]

Originally Posted by whitemr2

I don't know how these people from the weather report make a living, they never make a correct prediction. It will be fine don't worry.

It's the only profession in the world that you can be wrong for more than 50% of the time and still get to keep your job.

[Aysedasi]

Originally Posted by whitemr2

I don't know how these people from the weather report make a living, they never make a correct prediction. It will be fine don't worry.

This is the correct answer.

[Adam43]

Originally Posted by Spyderman

It's the only profession in the world that you can be wrong for more than 50% of the time and still get to keep your job.

Except they're not.

What they shouldn't do is forecast so far off. The uncertainty is too high. Yet there is demand. I think a likelihood rating and more education of those reading about probability would help.

[Aysedasi]

This whole thread is about 'demand' I guess. Every year we have it and every year the answer is the same, it will be what it will be. Even if there was any possibility that it would hurl it down all week (which of course there isn't), we'd all still go.

My annual fear is that it will be too hot and dry.

[Deleted]

What you REALLY want from long period weather forecast, is like the example below, which shows the promised forecast as well as the error margins to opposite directions (of course, the chances of errors grow gradually the longer the period). If these kind of graphs were utilized more often in general weather forecasting, maybe people would learn to interpret them better



And no, it ain't no easy profession (photo from foreca.fi)