Recession or opportunity?

[terence]

Gordon Brown has handed out a golden opportunity,House Insulation,the amount of house's that need it are numbered in their thousands,the insulation companys cannot cope with the demand meaning that people who ask for it now will not actually get it until April,isn't that a bit after winter?

[Peter Mallett]

Trouble with that (and this is off topic) is that the energy companies are required to pay/subsidise it and guess where they get their money from?

[simon drabble]

Originally Posted by terence bower

In two weeks,5 inquiries=3 invoices.

Yeah,OK,I gave into the bait.

Some of the big boys in Morgan Stanley have some refreshingly optimistic views.

With Lehmans now history, Merrils having to merge with BoA and talk of the spotlight on both MS and Goldies your friends at MS surely must be less bullish now....

[terence]

Perhaps.

[simon drabble]

well I can tell you the Drain this morning was full of people with very long faces..... this is getting very ugly and before people get on their high horses about the city remember that it will have knock on effects in the whole South of England

[Peter Mallett]

Actually It will eventually impact the entire country, one way or another.

However from the opportubity point of view, those car collections that were being used as a pension, might come on to the market a bit sooner.

[terence]

Some probably will,but the problem with some marques is that they have gone into negative status already,then the question arises of whether to sell or hold onto it.Depends on the urgency of releasing the equity,if that is important,then there will be opportunitys for those with the folding!

[Peter Mallett]

If they've gone negative already and are therefore available for racing, it may be a good thing! Might get that DB4GT yet!

[terence]

Now that would be a good entry for the six hour.

[jonners]

Originally Posted by simon drabble

well I can tell you the Drain this morning was full of people with very long faces.....

Nothing new there, then....

I had lunch at one of the investment banks in the City the week before last and one of the bankers completely lost his rag about the level of denial that's still out there...put a right dampener on the cheese and biscuits...

A couple of weeks before at a networking 'event' I spoke with someone on the main board of one of the clearing banks - he chatted about some of his recent meetings with the BoE and various ministers and he (I thought) was amazingly optimistic...

These 2 experiences together paint a discomforting picture and tell the story about what's happening

However all this shakes out the net result will be the mother and father of all reality checks - what wealth is will be redefined and the law of averages means that the bleeding obvious is coming home to roost

[simon drabble]

based on the carnage in the markets this morning (RBS shares being suspended amongst others) race cars might be one of the more safe investments!

[terence]

That was my implication earlier Simon,in some cases,no point in selling as a lot of people did in the eighties,that when there were some unbelivable bargains to be had,now,where did I leave that crystal ball.

Interesting that RBS "are comfortable" with their present state!.Strange also that the Euro has dropped 4 points since the middle of last week.

[simon drabble]

for anyone with cash I agree - just make sure you dont have more than £50k in any 1 bank...

[Tim Falce]

Originally Posted by simon drabble

for anyone with cash I agree - just make sure you dont have more than £50k in any 1 bank...

£50K, what's that?

[terence]

Is'nt that the average amount that would make everyone in the UK feel better if it were in their accounts?

Actually if Gordon Brown wants more people to vote----------------

[simon drabble]

I am not saying I have it - merely that is the maximum amount safe if a bank goes pop

[Jeremy Hall]

Originally Posted by simon drabble

based on the carnage in the markets this morning (RBS shares being suspended amongst others) race cars might be one of the more safe investments!

Why Simon? All the mega rich guys have got the trophy cars-GTO $30 mill etc, all that left is the not so important stuff which becomes low priority and for sure will go the way it went in the eighties. The kids can't afford to buy in anymore-my first Lancia B20 was paid off in spare cash from 6 months salary-that level of buy in is gone and the twenty years olds are not interested.

[midgetman]

Well, I know I'll get accused of being in denial but here goes...I ran a stand at the Autojumble at Beaulieu at the weekend, and I've never seen so many wodges of banknotes. Huge rolls of folding stuff, coming in from all over the continent too, no doubt encouraged by our cheap pound.

Maybe it hasn't percolated down to my scruffy MG end of the market yet, but all my customers appear to be in jobs and able to afford their mortgages. So they've got some disposable to play with on their cars. I'm getting good prices, too, for the right stuff. Not that I'm complacent, it can change awfully quickly.

Maybe it'll mean a rationalisation of the sport which could be a good thing. Less meetings, better grids. Perhaps we'll get a clue after Goodwod, see what cars are up for sale?

[simon drabble]

The comment was made with some flippancy however at least one top end dealer I know had a record August. If you look at cars relative to property now and the late 80,s I think it still has room to run.

A 1975 MGB rubber bumper in harvest brown probably has no bid in this market but nice cars will in certain situations carry on I think. At some point unfashionable gaz guzzlers like 90s Bentleys are going to look very cheap with the way oil is falling

[terence]

Or more importantly,the figures they attract,not that that is any sort of guide to the lower end of the market,merely an indication of how the mega wods feel about whats going on.At the moment,it is pointing to long term investments,perhaps a little something for the children to inherit.
Just before the eighties downturn,I remember a 250 GTO being knocked out at 10.4 million,within 10 months another went at 1.25,will it turn out that bad,we'll have to wait and see.
The interesting thing is that Belgium/France/Italy/Holland seem to be OK at the moment and certainly,most of my enquiries are coming from that direction as indeed New Zealand and Australia.

[Peter Mallett]

Trouble is the last time it was the lack of support for the currencies. This time its the banks folding. Totally different to anything we've seen, at least in my lifetime.

I can see why many folks aren't too bothered, because the possibility of a bank folding for reasons other than rogue traders is pretty remote, until today. Now we read that HBOS one of the UK's biggest mortgage lenders has lost 40% of its share price. That's someone's pension. This is where things will start to hit. Once the confidence goes the whole lot starts to fold.

[simon drabble]

Peter you are spot on - I was in the market for Drexels and barings and this is different. Cash is king and to be honest cars might look vulnerable I hope not and so far they have held well
Be interesting to see after today how damien Hurst's auction goes tonight to get a feel asto how the new world money looks.....

[terence]

Yes exactly,were they not so heavily involved with debt buying from the US it would possibly be a lot different if they had not been.

[simon drabble]

The credit crunch has many causes and its fair to say no bank will come out unscathed fortunately some will fare a lot better than others but with illiquidity now global it is going to be brutal

[Al Weyman]

I thought when things get bad with currency the smart money moves into tangable assets like art, gold or in fact old cars so why do you guys think the values will hit the floor when in reality the opposite may happen precisely because of the current market situation. BTW should I get my money out of HBOS?