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24 Sep 2024, 13:37 (Ref:4228246) | #101 | ||
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What is surprising this season is that Ingram hasn't been able to establish a clear points advantage going in to the final, as he has been the dominant driver within his team. This has not been the case at either BMW or NAPA, where team mates have taken points away each other.
At BMW, either Turkington or Hill could be far away in the points if it wasn't for the other driver taking points away, whilst in the Fords, both Sutton and Cammish have been taking points away from each other. The same cannot be said over at Bristol Street Motors although Chilton, when not at the scene of one of his many incidents, has accumulated 171 points, but I'm not sure if any of those were at the expense of Ingram. |
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24 Sep 2024, 13:57 (Ref:4228250) | #102 | |
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24 Sep 2024, 18:04 (Ref:4228286) | #103 | ||
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24 Sep 2024, 19:55 (Ref:4228294) | #104 | |||
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There will always be the unknown (and unproveable) situation of what would have happened if the team mate was not on the track. Another train of thought suggests that a strong team-mate also takes points away from your rival. So - and I do not know yet how it will pan out - I have looked at what would happen if the team mate did not take points away from you. |
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24 Sep 2024, 20:16 (Ref:4228297) | #105 | ||
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In assessing the removal of team mates, I have not factored in Fastest Laps, Poles or Lead Lap bonus points.
The simplest way to approach it is to just remove the team mates from the results. When this is done, the championship scores would be: Hill - 399 Ingram - 399 Sutton - 386 |
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24 Sep 2024, 20:42 (Ref:4228301) | #106 | ||
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A slightly more refined approach is to remove the team mates that finished ahead of the title contenders.
This makes two big assumptions A - the teams selected a clear #1 before the first race of the season. B - the team mate drops out of the race entirely if the #1 has not retired. In this case, the final standing would be: Jake Hill - 382 Tom Ingram - 369 Ashley Sutton - 363 |
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24 Sep 2024, 20:54 (Ref:4228302) | #107 | ||
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The final way I have looked at it, is to assume that if a driver is 1 or 2 places ahead of their team mate, they drop back and allow them past.
In this scenario, the standing would be: Jake Hill - 365 Tom Ingram - 350 Ashley Sutton - 339 |
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24 Sep 2024, 20:58 (Ref:4228303) | #108 | ||
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Looking at the different scenarios, it seems to me that team orders would have given Hill a clear lead going into the final rounds.
But - at what point in the season would you expect a Team BMW driver to move aside for the title challenge of a Laser Tools driver? Ingram has not needed team orders to boost his position. But - is he the designated #1, or has just established that position through his own performance? And in putting together a team - how can you convince Cammish or Turkington to play a supporting role before the first lights go out? |
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24 Sep 2024, 21:36 (Ref:4228306) | #109 | |
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I think it's all down to weather at Brands
scorching heat advantage Hill rainy conditions title goes to Tingram BTW Turkington already openly pledged support to Hill " We head to Brands Hatch still firmly fighting for the Manufacturers’ Championship and will be there to support Jake as well" Last edited by porsche962fan; 24 Sep 2024 at 21:45. |
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24 Sep 2024, 21:42 (Ref:4228307) | #110 | |
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24 Sep 2024, 21:47 (Ref:4228308) | #111 | |
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^ after race 3 I doubt he prefers it given how bloody fast Ingram is in it
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25 Sep 2024, 07:10 (Ref:4228336) | #112 | ||
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25 Sep 2024, 09:09 (Ref:4228344) | #113 | ||
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I think for whatever reason the Hyundai has great straightline speed, however that advantage is less at Brands Hatch.
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25 Sep 2024, 09:34 (Ref:4228345) | #114 | ||
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25 Sep 2024, 09:39 (Ref:4228347) | #115 | ||
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25 Sep 2024, 09:51 (Ref:4228348) | #116 | |||
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Thanks, crm, for all the calculations, and I'm really surprised at the results. I really thought that both Hill and Sutton would have benefitted to a far greater extent than the figures seem to indicate. Just goes to show how equal all three are. It could indicate a thrilling final day at Brands. Oh, and another thing which echoes in my mind what Jade Edwards has said quite a few times recently; Hill is where he is in the points because he has tempered his driving this season. He is still just as aggressive as ever, but in a far more tempered way. Possibly the same as both Ingram and Sutton in the past. Having said that, I fully expect Sutton, in particular, to throw caution to the wind, and we will see the Sutton of old as he realistically has little to lose. Last edited by Mike Harte; 25 Sep 2024 at 09:59. |
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25 Sep 2024, 10:11 (Ref:4228350) | #117 | |||
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An example is when Turkington won round 22. If he was not there, Sutton would 3 points better off and Hill only 2 points (and even more when you include bonus points). The biggest differences compared to the field (if the teams are looking that closely) is switching around a 1-2 or switching around a 4-5 finish within a team. Turkington's wins in R16 and R22 all helped Hill. Cammish's win in R24 helped Sutton. Chilton's win in R18 helped Ingram. Pearson and Chilton both helped Ingram's challenge in R6. Thompson helped Hill in R7. Last edited by crmalcolm; 25 Sep 2024 at 10:20. |
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25 Sep 2024, 10:26 (Ref:4228353) | #118 | ||
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26 Sep 2024, 07:16 (Ref:4228403) | #119 | |
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26 Sep 2024, 09:41 (Ref:4228410) | #120 | ||
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The NGTC BMWs have always chewed up their rear tyres from day 1. This is somewhat track specific but it’s a general trait. Compare that with the S2000 E90 BMW and that had fantastically even tyre wear, probably because it was a better balanced car and was also putting down 100bhp less.
It’s strange how the fwd cars don’t seem to suffer with understeer as the race progresses? Last edited by Sodemo; 26 Sep 2024 at 09:48. |
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26 Sep 2024, 15:45 (Ref:4228460) | #121 | |||
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27 Sep 2024, 17:10 (Ref:4228633) | #122 | |
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time for Brands Hatch thread ?
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27 Sep 2024, 17:20 (Ref:4228635) | #123 | ||
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27 Sep 2024, 18:24 (Ref:4228645) | #124 | ||
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Not sure if this belongs in here, or the Brands thread, but it was interesting to hear Lord Gow's take on the 'controversial' ball draw for race 3 when asked by Alan Hyde on TTT.
"At Brands Hatch, the guy that won the race won't be drawing the ball out", and then talked about drivers trying to get a 'sneaky peek'. He then went on to talk about looking at making changes to how it is drawn and who does it. He stopped short of saying there was any cheating involved, but his comments certainly don't help to make Hill look innocent, and it makes me wonder even more why the draw wasn't redone |
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27 Sep 2024, 21:07 (Ref:4228669) | #125 | |
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