[BTCC] Silverstone National Rds. 25/26/27

[Mike Harte]

What is surprising this season is that Ingram hasn't been able to establish a clear points advantage going in to the final, as he has been the dominant driver within his team. This has not been the case at either BMW or NAPA, where team mates have taken points away each other.

At BMW, either Turkington or Hill could be far away in the points if it wasn't for the other driver taking points away, whilst in the Fords, both Sutton and Cammish have been taking points away from each other. The same cannot be said over at Bristol Street Motors although Chilton, when not at the scene of one of his many incidents, has accumulated 171 points, but I'm not sure if any of those were at the expense of Ingram.

[Evantra]

Originally Posted by Matt K

IMO everyone should have full hybrid in qualifying throughout the entire season.

Ideally that’d be great, but I think then the top 4 at almost every round would be Ingram, Sutton, Hill and Turkington in some order!

[sceptic]

Originally Posted by mick bennett

Totally agree , sadly Sutton has had the most diabolical luck for the virtually the whole year. A drive through penalty was a simply dreadful decision. Rules are rules etc but that doesnt fit/justify what actually happended. All the mechanic/team member had done was?? he did'nt close the door quick enough by a few seconds. How would that affect the race in any shape of form?.

It wasn't that he didn't close the door, the door was already closed, and he reopened it after the 3 minute board. The regulation broken is that there was more than one team member touching the car after the three minute board (because another team member was leaning into the open door on the other side of the car. The rule is clear, the penalty is clear and they broke it. Same penalty has been applied a few times to other teams over the last few years.

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by Mike Harte

What is surprising this season is that Ingram hasn't been able to establish a clear points advantage going in to the final, as he has been the dominant driver within his team. This has not been the case at either BMW or NAPA, where team mates have taken points away each other.

At BMW, either Turkington or Hill could be far away in the points if it wasn't for the other driver taking points away, whilst in the Fords, both Sutton and Cammish have been taking points away from each other. The same cannot be said over at Bristol Street Motors although Chilton, when not at the scene of one of his many incidents, has accumulated 171 points, but I'm not sure if any of those were at the expense of Ingram.

This has always intrigued me - as to whether a strong team mate really does take points off your challenge.
There will always be the unknown (and unproveable) situation of what would have happened if the team mate was not on the track. Another train of thought suggests that a strong team-mate also takes points away from your rival.

So - and I do not know yet how it will pan out - I have looked at what would happen if the team mate did not take points away from you.

[crmalcolm]

In assessing the removal of team mates, I have not factored in Fastest Laps, Poles or Lead Lap bonus points.

The simplest way to approach it is to just remove the team mates from the results. When this is done, the championship scores would be:

Hill - 399
Ingram - 399
Sutton - 386

[crmalcolm]

A slightly more refined approach is to remove the team mates that finished ahead of the title contenders.

This makes two big assumptions
A - the teams selected a clear #1 before the first race of the season.
B - the team mate drops out of the race entirely if the #1 has not retired.

In this case, the final standing would be:

Jake Hill - 382
Tom Ingram - 369
Ashley Sutton - 363

[crmalcolm]

The final way I have looked at it, is to assume that if a driver is 1 or 2 places ahead of their team mate, they drop back and allow them past.

In this scenario, the standing would be:
Jake Hill - 365
Tom Ingram - 350
Ashley Sutton - 339

[crmalcolm]

Looking at the different scenarios, it seems to me that team orders would have given Hill a clear lead going into the final rounds.

But - at what point in the season would you expect a Team BMW driver to move aside for the title challenge of a Laser Tools driver?

Ingram has not needed team orders to boost his position.

But - is he the designated #1, or has just established that position through his own performance?

And in putting together a team - how can you convince Cammish or Turkington to play a supporting role before the first lights go out?

[porsche962fan]

I think it's all down to weather at Brands

scorching heat advantage Hill

rainy conditions title goes to Tingram

BTW Turkington already openly pledged support to Hill " We head to Brands Hatch still firmly fighting for the Manufacturers’ Championship and will be there to support Jake as well"

[SV8Predator]

Originally Posted by porsche962fan

I think it's all down to weather at Brands

scorching heat advantage Hill

rainy conditions title goes to Tingram

Interesting opinion, when Jake Hill clearly prefers a wet track!

[porsche962fan]

^ after race 3 I doubt he prefers it given how bloody fast Ingram is in it

[InYourMirrors45]

Originally Posted by porsche962fan

I think it's all down to weather at Brands

scorching heat advantage Hill

rainy conditions title goes to Tingram

BTW Turkington already openly pledged support to Hill " We head to Brands Hatch still firmly fighting for the Manufacturers’ Championship and will be there to support Jake as well"

Completely wrong. Hills Achilles heel is the the scorching heat. Struggled at brands earlier in the year and at Croft as well. Even if you go back ti his first year in the BMW, they seemed to struggle in abnormally high Temperatures.

[Sodemo]

I think for whatever reason the Hyundai has great straightline speed, however that advantage is less at Brands Hatch.

[VIVA GT]

Originally Posted by Sodemo

I think for whatever reason the Hyundai has great straightline speed, however that advantage is less at Brands Hatch.

Don't the Hyundai's run the TOCA engine like the Astra - that's a quicker car than it used to be lately...

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by VIVA GT

Don't the Hyundai's run the TOCA engine like the Astra - that's a quicker car than it used to be lately...

No - they have been using a Hyundai unit developed by Swindon since 2022.

[Mike Harte]

Originally Posted by crmalcolm

The final way I have looked at it, is to assume that if a driver is 1 or 2 places ahead of their team mate, they drop back and allow them past.

In this scenario, the standing would be:
Jake Hill - 365
Tom Ingram - 350
Ashley Sutton - 339

Thanks, crm, for all the calculations, and I'm really surprised at the results. I really thought that both Hill and Sutton would have benefitted to a far greater extent than the figures seem to indicate.

Just goes to show how equal all three are. It could indicate a thrilling final day at Brands.

Oh, and another thing which echoes in my mind what Jade Edwards has said quite a few times recently; Hill is where he is in the points because he has tempered his driving this season. He is still just as aggressive as ever, but in a far more tempered way. Possibly the same as both Ingram and Sutton in the past. Having said that, I fully expect Sutton, in particular, to throw caution to the wind, and we will see the Sutton of old as he realistically has little to lose.

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by Mike Harte

Thanks, crm, for all the calculations, and I'm really surprised at the results. I really thought that both Hill and Sutton would have benefitted to a far greater extent than the figures seem to indicate.

Just goes to show how equal all three are. It could indicate a thrilling final day at Brands.

Oh, and another thing which echoes in my mind what Jade Edwards has said quite a few times recently; Hill is where he is in the points because he has tempered his driving this season. He is still just as aggressive as ever, but in a far more tempered way. Possibly the same as both Ingram and Sutton in the past. Having said that, I fully expect Sutton, in particular, to throw caution to the wind, and we will see the Sutton of old as he realistically has little to lose.

For me - the biggest reason that the other drivers haven't changed the standings much is that, when Cammish or Turkington has taken points from their team-mates, they have also taken them from Ingram.

An example is when Turkington won round 22. If he was not there, Sutton would 3 points better off and Hill only 2 points (and even more when you include bonus points).

The biggest differences compared to the field (if the teams are looking that closely) is switching around a 1-2 or switching around a 4-5 finish within a team.

Turkington's wins in R16 and R22 all helped Hill.
Cammish's win in R24 helped Sutton.
Chilton's win in R18 helped Ingram.
Pearson and Chilton both helped Ingram's challenge in R6.
Thompson helped Hill in R7.

[VIVA GT]

Originally Posted by crmalcolm

No - they have been using a Hyundai unit developed by Swindon since 2022.

Thanks for correcting me

[sceptic]

Originally Posted by SV8Predator

Interesting opinion, when Jake Hill clearly prefers a wet track!

He does, but I'm not convinced the car does.

[Sodemo]

The NGTC BMWs have always chewed up their rear tyres from day 1. This is somewhat track specific but it’s a general trait. Compare that with the S2000 E90 BMW and that had fantastically even tyre wear, probably because it was a better balanced car and was also putting down 100bhp less.

It’s strange how the fwd cars don’t seem to suffer with understeer as the race progresses?

[billy bleach]

Originally Posted by Sodemo

The NGTC BMWs have always chewed up their rear tyres from day 1. This is somewhat track specific but it’s a general trait. Compare that with the S2000 E90 BMW and that had fantastically even tyre wear, probably because it was a better balanced car and was also putting down 100bhp less.

It’s strange how the fwd cars don’t seem to suffer with understeer as the race progresses?

According to Sutton talking to Louise they do!

[porsche962fan]

time for Brands Hatch thread ?

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by porsche962fan

time for Brands Hatch thread ?

https://tentenths.com/forum/showthread.php?p=4228634#post4228634

[cxx666]

Not sure if this belongs in here, or the Brands thread, but it was interesting to hear Lord Gow's take on the 'controversial' ball draw for race 3 when asked by Alan Hyde on TTT.

"At Brands Hatch, the guy that won the race won't be drawing the ball out", and then talked about drivers trying to get a 'sneaky peek'. He then went on to talk about looking at making changes to how it is drawn and who does it.

He stopped short of saying there was any cheating involved, but his comments certainly don't help to make Hill look innocent, and it makes me wonder even more why the draw wasn't redone

[SV8Predator]

Originally Posted by cxx666

his comments certainly don't help to make Hill look innocent,

Give it a ****ing rest, for God's sake!