[BTCC] BTCC 2022 season discussion, News and Rumours!

[Evantra]

Ingram at Excerl8 this year and next.

[Bump Pass]

Love to see Plato in a decent drive. but have a feeling he may just call it a day.

[porsche962fan]

Originally Posted by Bump Pass

Love to see Plato in a decent drive. but have a feeling he may just call it a day.

his pride allowing him to miss those 3 wins to achieve the century ?

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by porsche962fan

his pride allowing him to miss those 3 wins to achieve the century ?

What dents your pride more:

A) Retiring on 97 wins, 35 more than any other driver in the history of the sport.

B) Struggling on for another 2-3 seasons in the mid / rear of the pack, looking a pale comparison of your peak and being referred to (probably by people on here) as being past it and over the hill - an embarrassment to the sport.

[porsche962fan]

you must ask him that , but really 3 wins if he get say in a good seat should be doable, specially with reverse grid

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by porsche962fan

you must ask him that , but really 3 wins if he get say in a good seat should be doable, specially with reverse grid

Personally, I don't see that as being easy to achieve. There are a lot of good drivers in the best seats already, and so being able to beat your team mate, and lucking into a 3rd Rd draw is challenging.

[mprmke]

Originally Posted by BTCC frog

I think they might surprise us with a driver at least as good as Dan Lloyd.

I would be surprised if either of the drivers they've signed fits this criteria unless 1 of them actually is Dan Lloyd. There aren't many drivers around on his level. Certainly not ones that aren't already signed to/obviously in a far better seat.

The PMR/Astra combination is one step above Team Hard and below everything else in reality, so not a big pull for top drivers.

[mprmke]

Originally Posted by crmalcolm

Personally, I don't see that as being easy to achieve. There are a lot of good drivers in the best seats already, and so being able to beat your team mate, and lucking into a 3rd Rd draw is challenging.

In the right car, Plato is more than capable of winning in Race 1 and Race 2 of any given round that suits said car. Taking into account ballast (or AN Other BoP measure), a good car and driver combination will always be in with a shout of getting an opportunity to put their car on the first two rows of the grid at the right circuit and turn that into a Race 1 win, which in turn always gives a shout of a Race 2 win as well.

Nothing is easy at the sharp end of the BTCC, but wins are always going to be spread around a fair amount, so good drivers in a good car will always get a chance at some point with enough luck on their side on the day.

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by mprmke

In the right car, Plato is more than capable of winning in Race 1 and Race 2 of any given round that suits said car. Taking into account ballast (or AN Other BoP measure), a good car and driver combination will always be in with a shout of getting an opportunity to put their car on the first two rows of the grid at the right circuit and turn that into a Race 1 win, which in turn always gives a shout of a Race 2 win as well.

I understand your point, I just think that when you look at results in the BTCC over the past 5 years (Plato's and other drivers) - I wonder if he still has that level of ability.

2017 - 5 drivers took 3 wins or more. Plato was driving the same car as the champion, and took 1 win.
2018 - 3 drivers took 3 wins or mote. Plato was driving the same car as the champion, and took zero wins.
2019 - 5 drivers took 3 wins or more. Plato took 1 win.
2020 - 6 drivers took 3 wins or more. Plato wasn't racing.
2021 - 5 drivers took 3 wins or more. Plato took zero wins.

It would appear (from the statistics) that his chances of getting more wins are declining, and there are many other drivers on the grid now who will take wins away from him.
2015 was the last time he took 3 or more wins in a season. For comparison of drivers with similar experience, Neal has only achieved this once since (2016). It can't be overlooked that, with age, ability will decline. That is why I would prefer to see Plato leave now with a legacy that marks him out as one of the best to ever grace the series, than continue with his current trend of results and become the subject of criticism in his ability.

Do I think he was good? Yes, one of the best there has been.
Do I think we have a chance of him being part of a driver/car package that is good enough to take 3+ wins in 2022? No.

[crmalcolm]

I guess another way to look at it.

There are 30 race wins available in 2022. Drivers who I would expect to have a higher chance of 3 wins than Plato:

Sutton, Cammish, Turkington, Hill, Shedden, Ingram, Butcher, Morgan, Cook, Shedden.

[Mike Harte]

Originally Posted by crmalcolm

I guess another way to look at it.

There are 30 race wins available in 2022. Drivers who I would expect to have a higher chance of 3 wins than Plato:

Sutton, Cammish, Turkington, Hill, Shedden, Ingram, Butcher, Morgan, Cook, Shedden.

Oh, are there two Sheddens racing?

[Craner Curves]

Originally Posted by crmalcolm

I guess another way to look at it.

There are 30 race wins available in 2022. Drivers who I would expect to have a higher chance of 3 wins than Plato:

Sutton, Cammish, Turkington, Hill, Shedden, Ingram, Butcher, Morgan, Cook, Shedden.

Oh no, you've broken the Jillian Shedden embargo!

[antnee]

Lets not forget the psychology here - if Plato is truly in a competitive package, he seems to go up a notch. If he is contemplating that 2022 will be his last season, I'm sure he won't go down without a fight.

[antnee]

Originally Posted by Mike Harte

Oh, are there two Sheddens racing?

He has 2 seats this year, Dynamics and another TBC

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by Mike Harte

Oh, are there two Sheddens racing?

[porsche962fan]

the 2023 entery list can be updated with Tingram who signed for 2023 too

https://www.btcc.net/2022/01/20/ingr...8-partnership/

[mprmke]

Plato, in an elite level car, would have as much chance as all but the very top few on that list. The problem is, he hasn't been in an elite level car for a good few seasons now. Of course, with time, his chances of reaching the 100 wins will decline, but he's still bang on it at the moment, ability-wise.

Even in the PMR Astra he was quickest outright in at least two sessions last season. Obviously, he wouldn't have been if it hadn't been for ballast etc, but in a pretty poor car he still did a fine job. As did Lloyd. If they'd have been in a decent car, like a BTC Honda for example, they'd have been right up there.

But yes, the field is very strong. Turkington, Sutton, Hill, Cammish, Cook, Plato, Lloyd, Ingram, Butcher, Shedden are all elite level drivers. Morgan, Chilton, Jelley, Moffat and others are all very decent too. Even Goff and Smith at Team HARD are proven, race-winning drivers, who you thought may have been title-winners by now a few years ago, and now they're trying to drag the worst team on the grid by far up to a reasonable level because it's the best seat they could get!

It's ridiculously tough! Some good drivers in good cars won't be able to get a win in 2022, but they're all going to get an opportunity if they're in a decent car which suits them. You would say Chilton is a driver who would always be in with a shout of winning races, but he was nowhere in 2021!

[Bump Pass]

Originally Posted by mprmke

Plato, in an elite level car, would have as much chance as all but the very top few on that list. The problem is, he hasn't been in an elite level car for a good few seasons now. Of course, with time, his chances of reaching the 100 wins will decline, but he's still bang on it at the moment, ability-wise.

Even in the PMR Astra he was quickest outright in at least two sessions last season. Obviously, he wouldn't have been if it hadn't been for ballast etc, but in a pretty poor car he still did a fine job. As did Lloyd. If they'd have been in a decent car, like a BTC Honda for example, they'd have been right up there.

But yes, the field is very strong. Turkington, Sutton, Hill, Cammish, Cook, Plato, Lloyd, Ingram, Butcher, Shedden are all elite level drivers. Morgan, Chilton, Jelley, Moffat and others are all very decent too. Even Goff and Smith at Team HARD are proven, race-winning drivers, who you thought may have been title-winners by now a few years ago, and now they're trying to drag the worst team on the grid by far up to a reasonable level because it's the best seat they could get!

It's ridiculously tough! Some good drivers in good cars won't be able to get a win in 2022, but they're all going to get an opportunity if they're in a decent car which suits them. You would say Chilton is a driver who would always be in with a shout of winning races, but he was nowhere in 2021!

I do think the way things ended with BMR hurt Plato.
Sounds a bit like Vauxhall 2000/01 all over again.

If after last season in that not so competitive Astra he decided to stay home with his girls, with 97 wins I wouldn't blame him.

he's known for not keeping or knowing where most of his trophies are so think we would be very content.

Be very interesting to see the Prime doc they were filming about pmr.

What does and doesn't make the cut,

[coffinpilot]

Matt Neal talking Rowbo, Shedden and himself/Henry to Marcus Simmons today.

[BTCC frog]

I don't think Jason Plato's legacy will be damaged if he has a few more seasons struggling in the midfield, trying to get that elusive hundred wins. You should race until you no longer enjoy it (or you can't get a drive anymore), so if he still enjoys racing in the BTCC then why not continue.

I put some driver lineup predictions into the mathematical model, and it predicted that if Plato performed at the average that he has over his whole career at Speedworks in 2022, he would finish fifth in the championship (this is assuming every car is at the same level as it was in 2021). If we consider 2021 to be his level now, he would finish twelfth. I suspect that if he went to Speedworks, his level would be somewhere in between, and it is plausible that over the next few seasons he could get three race wins. But even if he doesn't, there is no harm in trying. I very much hope he stays in the championship, as I also hope Matt Neal returns.

[porsche962fan]

let's say its more likely for Turkington to get 4 wins and be no 2 all time most wins driver after Plato

Turkington has been pretty reliable in converting wins from front row unlike his 2 team mates this past season, Jelley was an utter disaster in that regard

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by coffinpilot

Matt Neal talking Rowbo, Shedden and himself/Henry to Marcus Simmons today.

Autosport are reporting it as Shedden not confirmed (yet).

[porsche962fan]

Originally Posted by crmalcolm

Autosport are reporting it as Shedden not confirmed (yet).

so he is confirmed if they bother to make an article that he is not

[Evantra]

Originally Posted by crmalcolm

Autosport are reporting it as Shedden not confirmed (yet).

Same with Cook and BTC a few days ago.

[coffinpilot]

Slightly different in the magazine version of the article which has "Shedden Stays" in the title. Also claims the Chilton is about to sign up to race a Hyundai and the Swindon/Hyundai engine project is up and running.