MotoGP 2024

[Gerard C]

Originally Posted by E.B

MM#93 in a Sprint race??

Not only him. When Pecco stays on his wheels he's almost out of reach. I'm convinced that in this cynical world someone will make this kinda statistic.

Today we have P Bagnaia 275 pts and J Martin 270 pts. Rest of the batch? E Batianini 214 pts, M Marquez 192 pts and M Viñales 139 pts. In Schummy world I think we have now only two "candidates" and some spectators…

[E.B]

Originally Posted by Gerard C

Today we have P Bagnaia 275 pts and J Martin 270 pts. Rest of the batch? E Batianini 214 pts, M Marquez 192 pts and M Viñales 139 pts. In Schummy world I think we have now only two "candidates" and some spectators…

And still a very strong chance of the #1 gracing a non Ducati (Aprilia?) in the 2025 Ducati Cup!

[Gerard C]

Yep, can only be an Aprilia or a Ducati now. I can't imagine a simple number on the fairing can help to fill the gap between the two bikes. This said, can Pecco and Marc bury the hatchet and work together in 2025?
https://www.moto-net.com/live/bagnai...z-en-2025.html
"Il y a quelques jours, j'ai vu une vidéo sur Twitter qui disait que je ne voulais pas de Marc dans l'équipe d'usine mais ce sont des conneries ! Je m'en fiche : je veux juste tous les battre et rester le meilleur".

[Schummy]

Originally Posted by Gerard C

Sure!

@ Shummy: just a thought. Did you compare your "results" to what is done by the online bets like Winnamax or FdJ for instance? Do they include variables like riders prone to crash or being injured?

Finally, I "can" enter the forum. LOL, I have been watching the races until now! I see every session in the 4 categories, at my own pace, and I take days to end this "ordeal"!

Some years ago, I was approached by someone in order to explore the collaboration with a betting enterprise. I think it was for British Superbikes but I can be wrong. It didn't reach further than a first contact. I think they were interested in how to calculate the "real" odds to estimate the expected profit.

I don't know what those bets businesses use, but surely it is a kind of "trade secret"!

[Schummy]

Originally Posted by Gerard C

Today we have P Bagnaia 275 pts and J Martin 270 pts. Rest of the batch? E Batianini 214 pts, M Marquez 192 pts and M Viñales 139 pts. In Schummy world I think we have now only two "candidates" and some spectators…

Well, as you say, the cold numbers say that now we have only two contenders, and basically with equal possibilities. Bastianini is what I called "pre-candidate" - If he does a great job on the next GP, he could be a distant contender. After Austria, Marc is out of the title in any remotely likely combination of results.

From a subjective POV, I think that PB and JM are both fast ... and prone to eventual errors. They have been this way since years ago. They are not as reliable as Quartararo or Rossi . But, certainly, they are not as extreme as Marc Marquez! (fast&crash).

I feel that the championship will be decided by some big error(s) rather than by getting 1st-2nd results. A big error can lose 25 points in a main race, it is equivalent to lose 5 times, 2nd against 1st.

[Gerard C]

Originally Posted by Schummy

I feel that the championship will be decided by some big error(s) rather than by getting 1st-2nd results. A big error can lose 25 points in a main race, it is equivalent to lose 5 times, 2nd against 1st.

Agreed. Another factor is if a rider has already been WC or not. We have three titles for Bagnaia and one for Martin, they both know what it takes to run a full season.

[Gerard C]

Originally Posted by Schummy

I don't know what those bets businesses use, but surely it is a kind of "trade secret"!

Very interesting story, not surprised you've been targeted for this kind of job. They probably all are using the same algorithm to start and further they ponderate. How and what are the variables and the interpretation is, as you wisely say, a well kept secret (in French secret de fabrication), the magical recipe. ATM I'd go for Martin but can't explain why and don't recommend you put a single penny on him!

[Schummy]

I am astounded by Bagnaia's calmness and performance each GP. No matter if he start on Friday on the top or lost in the low end, when qualy session arrives (and in the races) he makes a strong performance.

It is pretty special to get three consecutive titles in 500cc/MotoGP, if he achieves it, he already will be remembered as an great champion, whatever he does in later seasons.

It would be nice if Martin gets a MotoGP title. Next year he will be "overseas" (i.e. non-Ducati team ) so his chances will be unknown. Also, this is the first season (after his Moto 3 title) where he delivers a well rounded season. Maybe he will not be as good as this in future seasons, and his title chances never will happen again. It is a different case for Pecco, who has been performing very well during a longer time.

About Bastia, I am afraid this is the swan song of his title chances in MotoGP. With the curent amount of talent in MotoGP, specially new talents, I don't think he will have a better opportunity that with the Ducati Oficial Team.

Marquez... I think he never was the same after that infamous crash in the "killing" 3rd corner in Jerez (where a certain Mick Doohan ended his illustrious career). Before, he was ahead of the top riders, now he is "just" one of them. Of course, he could win a title, but now he needs a good bike, like any other mortal.

Quatararo. I think he continue being an elite rider, perhaps better than Pecco. I find painful to see him wasting his better years in an useless bike. I hope the "karma" rewards him in the future.

Acosta... of course an outstanding talent. For sure we will have to watch anything from him, now and in the future, because it is exciting to watch the emergence of one of those rare Big Stars.

I dont know if I am forgetting someone, but IMO, none of the rest (great riders all of them) have any special expectation to be future world champions or dominant riders.(even in a top bike/team).

Sorry for the long post! (-_-)' I wanted to comment things because usually I cannot , due to my crazy schedule watching delayed races!

[Gerard C]

Interesting analysis, thanks, the post is not too long IMO. As to Pecco, agreed again it seems he got rid of his old ghosts and now puts only his brain in his helmet. May be he fired an old guru or changed his gorlfriend, who knows!

As to the rest of the racing world, aka non-Ducati teams, it seems that Honda is making a lot of efforts to find… To find what, by the way? Their test riders list is rather long now, Bradl and now Espargarò and his team willing to bring new working methods. Zarco and the last one not being the best friends of the world, lets hope they can really cooperate.
Yamaha testing a new… video: https://www.instagram.com/reel/C-8ee...mpaign=loading

[Schummy]

At this rate of things, I would suggest Honda to organize a Honda Cup with its army of riders, test riders and Japanese factory riders, in FIM GPs and in SBK. The depth of field would be not far from MotoGP's.

As they are already contracted by Honda, it would not be a big cost.

I would center it around the circuits of Suzuka, Fuji, Mortegi,... Perhaps adding some outside rounds in Sepang, Mandalika or even Bathurst(!). I could also see a spectacular round in the ample parking of the residence of Mibe-sama (CEO).

Riders of the Cup should wear especially cushioned race suits (think about Michelin's Bibendum) because Honda bikes are characterized by spectacular crashes. The winners could be chosen to be test riders and the losers should accept to be racing drivers.

For some reason, Honda Motor Co. has not yet answered my proposal, that I sent them days ago. Probably they are studying it.

[Gerard C]

Originally Posted by Schummy

For some reason, Honda Motor Co. has not yet answered my proposal, that I sent them days ago. Probably they are studying it.

When they'll end up renting the full grid plus retired good riders and promising new comers, who to ride a Ducati then? Wainting for their answer to your wonderful post! So good to read funny things. Thanks for the smile!

[Schummy]

A mini-mini guide for Aragon. (Based in probabilities according to simulations based on points gaps and races to go.)

"Candidates": Those with a probability of at least 5% of overtaking the leader's points (with the current time of several "real elections" out there, perhaps it is better to change the name).

"Pre-candidates": Those who could became "candidate" if they do a enough good race in the next GP (Aragon).

Those who don't appear in any of those classes, typically have less than 1% of probability.

MotoGP

Candidates: BAG, JMAR
Pre-Candidates: BAS, (MMAR)
Bastianini has to gain many points against BAG and JMAR, in the weekend, to become merely a candidate. Difficult task. Marquez has a virtually impossible task in Aragon even to become a candidate.He is already out in any practical POV.

Moto 2

Candidates; GAR, OGU, ROB and LOP
Pre-Candidates: ALD, (VIE)
The weak race of Garcia in Spielberg, has breathed life into people who was in the verge of saying goodbye to the championship. Now, there are many candidates. Aldeguer has to grab good points to GAR to, finally, become a candidate as well. Vietti has a long shot to become a candidate, practically impossible.

Moto 3

Candidate(s): ALO!
Pre.candidates: Nobody!
Not much to tell here. Alonso has a big gap respecting anyone. The only possibility against him is bad luck (that silly little crash that unexpectedly, breaks a wrist, for example). Apart from that, the championship is over (99%).
Mr. Viegas, please, proceed to give him the trophy and let's pass to other affairs .

[Gerard C]

Interesting sprint race! I wonder what kind of ghost is living inside Pecco's braking system… Lets see what happens during the race but there wont be any pre-candidate I fear.

[E.B]

Originally Posted by Gerard C

Interesting sprint race! Lets see what happens during the race but there wont be any pre-candidate I fear.

The electronics on these bikes have become so complex now.... its far beyond simple tyre pressures and temperatures plus a few physical settings. Nowadays its all from within the laptop and settings done with a mouse and keyboard.

Plus MM93 completed a Sprint race without crashing.... whatever next. Plus we still have doubts upon where the #1 will hang next year.

The big points wont be until later today though. Im sure the interest and uncertainty will continue

[Gerard C]

Originally Posted by E.B

Im sure the interest and uncertainty will continue

Hum, hum… good words. Can you say it in Spanish?

[Gerard C]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8tXyFX7SF5Y Enjoy!

[Sandgroper]

That Pecco crash & footage was insane

[Gerard C]

A spyder in the helmet.

[Schummy]

Mini-micro guide for Misano.

Not much has changed. I am using the same "definitions" of contender/candidate and pre-con/pre-candidate as always. In short, a contender is who has at least a 5% chance of overcome the gap against the leader. Those who are not contenders are very unlikely to play any role in the title race.

MotoGP:
Contenders: JMAR, BAG
Pre-con: MMAR, BAS
Respecting the two leaders, the only change is that BAG could not be a contender if he suffers another big incident this weekend. MMAR and BAS are barely pre-cons, they are in the verge of being completely out. To be (weak) contenders they need a massive weekend against Martin.

Moto 2:
Contenders: GAR, OGU, LOP, ROB, (DIX)
Pre-con: ALD, (VIE), (GON)
This is the category with more changes, the misfortune of Garc?*a has shortened the gaps and people has got a new bunch of points in their "life bar". Lopez is now a contender, and even Dixon is almost there too. The problem for Dixon is he has to overtake four riders to get the title. Very unlikely.
Aldeguer continues to be just a pre-con, thing are running out of time, though. Vietti and Gonzalez are marginally pre-con, but, actually they are like if they were out.

Moto 3: Alonso and only Alonso
Contender: Alonso
Pre-con: Nobody
The win by Veijer and the 4th position for Alonso was too few to make any significant impact in the Himalayan gap of Alonso.

[Gerard C]

Originally Posted by Schummy

Mini-micro guide for Misano.
MotoGP:
Contenders: JMAR, BAG
Pre-con: MMAR, BAS
Respecting the two leaders, the only change is that BAG could not be a contender if he suffers another big incident this weekend. MMAR and BAS are barely pre-cons, they are in the verge of being completely out. To be (weak) contenders they need a massive weekend against Martin.

Good job, well done, tks.
First "incident" of the weekend, Martin wins the sprint. From the start he was like a devil out of his box and Pecco could do nothing but watch. In this kind of psychological war it seems that Martin has the weapons!

[Gerard C]

Sprint résumé here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GneqeFxUNU0

[Guthrie]

The riders' Championship is getting interesting with every race as the gap is now only 23 points between Martin and Pecco. it is going to go right down the wire.

[Gerard C]

It was a crazy race, was it? And MM is back for real. I'd say 7 points now… I think our very own Schummy was right with his pre-con list…
Explanation here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KWz4dbARJbE

[E.B]

Originally Posted by Schummy

MotoGP:
Contenders: JMAR, BAG
Pre-con: MMAR, BAS
To be (weak) contenders they need a massive weekend against Martin.

You were saying......

Martin, Bagnaia, Marquez and Enea Bastianini – are now separated by just 62 points
Bagnaia said. “I know their potential and the potential of their bike. As long as you are mathematically there then you need to believe.”

Hmmm..... 6 rounds to go....

[Gerard C]

Yes, there's hope for some… lets say many! I don't think Martin had a bad weekend he's just been very careful.
At the end of the day, Marquez doesn't need to have a works bike to win. Or may be he's been lucky enough to have the right bits on his bike…
Six races and six sprints.
PS : PI is about four hours from your location, will you watch your home GP from your armchair?