Nissan Leaf

[grantp]

Originally Posted by Mike Bell

So, from 2040 in the UK and France (so far), no petrol or diesel engined cars will be sold. All will have to be powered by an alternative and presume zero emissions source........

Think I'll be lucky if am still driving by 2040, but Wow!

It's in all the media, but here's one version.... http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-40723581

Trucks and buses too I assume?

And river craft?

Compressors?

Generators?

I think it's getting close to time to buy popcorn and simply sit back to see how the show pans out.

On the other hand this is entirely in line with my predictions of how the electric everything concept will be progressed.

People will, presumably, have to assume that this will happen so at what point does the existing ICE market become highly disrupted?

What are the life expectancies (i.e. deprecation to write-off values) that individual buyers and lease companies are prepared to accept as the next 20 years passes by?

Which countries around the world will not be able to adapt to electric only but will be active dumping grounds for ICE powered transport booted out by the enlightened industrialised nations?

(Or will the industialised nations insist that their detritus be scrapped not sold on?)

[Akrapovic]

Originally Posted by grantp

Trucks and buses too I assume?

And river craft?

Compressors?

Generators?

The very first line of the article.

New diesel and petrol cars and vans will be banned in the UK from 2040 in a bid to tackle air pollution, the government is set to announce.

[VIVA GT]

Originally Posted by grantp

Trucks and buses too I assume?

And river craft?

Compressors?

Generators?

I think it's getting close to time to buy popcorn and simply sit back to see how the show pans out.

On the other hand this is entirely in line with my predictions of how the electric everything concept will be progressed.

People will, presumably, have to assume that this will happen so at what point does the existing ICE market become highly disrupted?

What are the life expectancies (i.e. deprecation to write-off values) that individual buyers and lease companies are prepared to accept as the next 20 years passes by?

Which countries around the world will not be able to adapt to electric only but will be active dumping grounds for ICE powered transport booted out by the enlightened industrialised nations?

(Or will the industialised nations insist that their detritus be scrapped not sold on?)

I like that grant, the idea of an electric powered (er?) electricity generator!

[Akrapovic]

Originally Posted by VIVA GT

I like that grant, the idea of an electric powered (er?) electricity generator!

If we can get efficiency over 100%, we'll be laughing.

[grantp]

Originally Posted by VIVA GT

I like that grant, the idea of an electric powered (er?) electricity generator!

Well, they could be entirely autonomous large battery vehicles I suppose.

When not needed in the field they could be parked up in storage farms balancing load and providing short fall backup.

Multi-purposed.

No doubt in a few years time one will be able to by electricity for instand download over the internet on demand.

Netelec. Should I trademark that name?

Actually generators won't be required. All construction and repair work will be undertaken by autonomous self reliant robots running on AI.

Within decades they will have worked out the water pipes and drains are not vital to their continued existence in most areas and so will simply not prioritise repair jobs related to those utilities. Or just not undertake them at all.

[GORDON STREETER]

Well at this actual moment we are having a complete new electric central heating/hot water system fitted in our 500 year old house in the UK.
This is the type that uses conventional hot water radiators powered by an electric boiler.
Price wise I have heard conflicting reports on running costs but of course it is low maintenance and less aggro so we will have to see.
I wonder in years to come that there will be a glut of the "black gold" that might actually go down in price ? then the generating stations will be able to use it at a cheaper price and make a fortune !
Whatever the majority of the world will continue to use oil based ICE vehicles for years to come regardless to what happens to piddling little England and the Continent.

[Akrapovic]

Originally Posted by GORDON STREETER

I wonder in years to come that there will be a glut of the "black gold" that might actually go down in price ? then the generating stations will be able to use it at a cheaper price and make a fortune !

It's currently only sitting at $51 a barrel of Brent Crude. The lifting cost of an average platform is around $40 a barrel. Maybe $35 for some of the newer ones like the Cygnus Alpha. When it hit $27 a couple of years back, oil was worth less than water.

So if it goes any cheaper, you just won't have an oil industry in Europe as you won't be able to make the money back on extracting it from current wells, never mind the new deep water ones in places like west of Shetland. And then you'll really see a push for renewables, as we'd have to import our oil and gas.

[grantp]

Originally Posted by Akrapovic

.... as we'd have to import our oil and gas.

We do anyway, as well as the coal replacement wood pellets for DRAX.

As fas as I can tell there are now only 6 oil significant oil refineries in the UK so more and more refined fuel will be imported as well.

And of course with the closure of the Rough storage platform almost all gas supply is more or less real time on line.

[Akrapovic]

Originally Posted by grantp

We do anyway, as well as the coal replacement wood pellets for DRAX.

As fas as I can tell there are now only 6 oil significant oil refineries in the UK so more and more refined fuel will be imported as well.

And of course with the closure of the Rough storage platform almost all gas supply is more or less real time on line.

We don't import all of our oil and gas. You can export oil that's better for plastic making and import oil that's more suitable for other processes if you want. It's obviously not as simple as "we don't import our oil and gas", but in general we don't rely on that - gas from the North Sea ends up in most homes.

Platforms now still get phone calls from the Home Office asking them to increase or decrease production depending on how the gas grid is doing. When the Forties were down to extended maintenance and it ran over for a couple of weeks, there were some very panicked phone calls to Apache asking when they'd be operating again as the gas was required.

The Rough facility is not being shutdown - they're just one of the two platforms used because it's too old to maintain it economically. The Cygnus Alpha went live late last year and provides at least 5% of the UKs gas production, more than filling the void. And a new gas plant was just built in Shetland to service the West of Shetland - that currently provides almost 10% of the UKs gas production through the mainland pipeline at St Fergus.

Long story short, we don't import all of our oil and gas, and at $50 a barrel it's still economical to lift it. If that rises closer to $60 then you'll see a lot more development west of Shetland in the deep waters.

If the oil price drops below $35 for an extended period of time, you won't be able to operate in the UK. People think that that'll make their fuel cheaper, but it won't. Most of your fuel is currently tax anyway, but importing the fuel will have the cost rise anyway. So a low barrel price doesn't necessarily mean cheaper fuel costs, and too low a price means they'll rise.

We're getting a bit OT here, but gist: Fuel prices aren't going to drop. If hydrocarbon production is no longer viable in UK waters, you'll see a massive push towards renewables. And then we can all drive Leafs and Model 3s and enjoy the EV

[grantp]

Originally Posted by Akrapovic

We don't import all of our oil and gas. You can export oil that's better for plastic making and import oil that's more suitable for other processes if you want. It's obviously not as simple as "we don't import our oil and gas", but in general we don't rely on that - gas from the North Sea ends up in most homes.

Platforms now still get phone calls from the Home Office asking them to increase or decrease production depending on how the gas grid is doing. When the Forties were down to extended maintenance and it ran over for a couple of weeks, there were some very panicked phone calls to Apache asking when they'd be operating again as the gas was required.

The Rough facility is not being shutdown - they're just one of the two platforms used because it's too old to maintain it economically. The Cygnus Alpha went live late last year and provides at least 5% of the UKs gas production, more than filling the void. And a new gas plant was just built in Shetland to service the West of Shetland - that currently provides almost 10% of the UKs gas production through the mainland pipeline at St Fergus.

Long story short, we don't import all of our oil and gas, and at $50 a barrel it's still economical to lift it. If that rises closer to $60 then you'll see a lot more development west of Shetland in the deep waters.

If the oil price drops below $35 for an extended period of time, you won't be able to operate in the UK. People think that that'll make their fuel cheaper, but it won't. Most of your fuel is currently tax anyway, but importing the fuel will have the cost rise anyway. So a low barrel price doesn't necessarily mean cheaper fuel costs, and too low a price means they'll rise.

We're getting a bit OT here, but gist: Fuel prices aren't going to drop. If hydrocarbon production is no longer viable in UK waters, you'll see a massive push towards renewables. And then we can all drive Leafs and Model 3s and enjoy the EV

In relation to Rough, this is what I was referring to.

https://www.centrica.com/news/cessat...erations-rough


Storage to cover times of peak demand.

Not much left as I understand it. Now even less.

The plan for electricity generation to include HS2 and 9 million of so cars by somewhere around 2040 (20 years from a standing start and just about the time that most existing relatively high capacity wind "farms" will be up for replacement) is, er, what?

Or is all this sudden government waffle some sort of smoke screen to cover up some other evidence of complete inadequacy in the Westminster domain?

[GORDON STREETER]

What is going to be the next "thing" that the government is going to say is good/bad for us and then do a U turn ? we've seen all sorts over the years, coffee/sugar/diesel , there must be lots of things and someone makes a lot of money when it happens

[Tim Falce]

Originally Posted by GORDON STREETER

What is going to be the next "thing" that the government is going to say is good/bad for us and then do a U turn ? we've seen all sorts over the years, coffee/sugar/diesel , there must be lots of things and someone makes a lot of money when it happens

Petrol will be the next thing to bash once someone wakes up and realises how much extra benzene, which is highly carcinogenic, is added to petrol since they banned lead additives.

[grantp]

Originally Posted by Tim Falce

Petrol will be the next thing to bash once someone wakes up and realises how much extra benzene, which is highly carcinogenic, is added to petrol since they banned lead additives.

Air.

A licence will be required before one can draw breath.

So much simpler to track once underskin biometric chips become a requirement.

[Mike Bell]

I can't see the increase in EV sales being anything but gradual over the next 23 years, so don't understand the panic being expressed in some quarters over having enough electricity to keep up with demand. And what's to say that in 2040 pure battery powered electric cars will be the best technology for emissions free motoring? Maybe hydrogen fuel cell cars will have taken over the mantle?

A comment being made that makes sense to me, is that all our government have done is to rubber stamp an evolution that will naturally happen anyway....

[grantp]

Originally Posted by Mike Bell

I can't see the increase in EV sales being anything but gradual over the next 23 years, so don't understand the panic being expressed in some quarters over having enough electricity to keep up with demand. And what's to say that in 2040 pure battery powered electric cars will be the best technology for emissions free motoring? Maybe hydrogen fuel cell cars will have taken over the mantle?

A comment being made that makes sense to me, is that all our government have done is to rubber stamp an evolution that will naturally happen anyway....

Then they had no need to rubber stamp anything nor influence the possible timescale.

They must have some other matters in mind.

A smoke screen for something else that is happening currently - some sort of effort to outflank the Brexit negotiations farce? Or appeal to that
lad Macron?

Or are they simply setting out pathfinder flares for the introduction of ever wider taxation?

Meanwhile they seem to be losing control of large parts of London to gang warfare.

I suppose that's another way of solving the pollution issue.

[Mike Bell]

Anyone stay up for the official Model 3 launch last night?

As I'm at Silverstone enjoying the performance of a 50 + year old 4.2 litre straight 6 (fuelled by 105 octane leaded ), I wasn't in a position to find a stream showing it......

[Akrapovic]

Originally Posted by Mike Bell

Anyone stay up for the official Model 3 launch last night?

As I'm at Silverstone enjoying the performance of a 50 + year old 4.2 litre straight 6 (fuelled by 105 octane leaded ), I wasn't in a position to find a stream showing it......

I didn't stay up, but I did watch it this morning.

The entire event:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4a0GCIbfuKQ

Amateur video of the interior:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hiv9esQ3Glw

Ignoring the whole environment stuff, and just looking at this as a car, there's a few things that are interesting. The quality of the machine looks fantastic. Very high quality interior. The amount of space is amazing. Lots of storage where the gearbox and other such things would be. Massive amount of room in the front and rear for passengers.

Not entirely sold on the touch screen still. I prefer physical buttons. Not sold on the screen position and having no instrument panel, but some short reviews from those who have driven it have said they were surprised how well it worked, because the speedo is in the top left (top right for UK) of the screen, so you see it in the corner of your eye. The interior is clearly designed with full autonomy in mind.

Stats are impressive. 300 mile range for the big one. 0-60 in 5 seconds is fast no matter what's powering you. 200 mile range for the smaller one. Access to the Supercharger network.

Now I just need to save some pennies.

Edit: people tend to really hate Musks speeches because he's quite a poor public speaker. I actually like that, rather than having Mr Corporate out where the whole thing feels cold. This feels like he's talking about a hobby he loves, which is kinda nice. Terrible public speaker, but I like it. Reminds me of E3 when Ubisoft bring out developers to talk and they're pretty bad, but it's great because it's something they love. Then EA roll out a man in a suit who talks in business terms to people who want to see the next Titanfall came, and it's awful.

[Mike Bell]

Thanks! From my experience so far of Polar and EcoTricity charging networks, I wish I was on the waiting list for a model 3 so could eventually access the Supercharger network.....

I was moved to email one of the above to complain about faulty chargers, and do have some concerns about the maintenance of them!

[Woolley]

Originally Posted by GORDON STREETER

What is going to be the next "thing" that the government is going to say is good/bad for us and then do a U turn ? we've seen all sorts over the years, coffee/sugar/diesel , there must be lots of things and someone makes a lot of money when it happens

Probably electric cars, once the batteries start dying and are found to be a huge problem for recycling...

The trick in urban areas is simply to have cheap, fast, efficient and extensive electric powered (trams/underground) public transport so that for people in these areas it becomes inefficient to use cars and then people will naturally move away from them for the short urban journeys which are a problem. Do the same with trains which will cover a lot of other journeys, in particular move freight back to the railways, and then the remaining emissions will stop being significant. Just swapping the current model for a different power source is not going to be a solution in the long run. The same problems will simply recur in a different way.

[Akrapovic]

I'd argue it depends what problem you're trying to solve.

Are we talking about the disposal of batteries after the end of life? Then electric cars do not have all the answers yet.

Are we talking about a sustainable fuel source? Then electric cars are part of the answer. I prefer a petrol engine, but the fuel source is unsustainable so must be replaced. Electric cars allow this to happen.

Are we talking about cleaner vehicles? Electric cars, even if running on coal powered electricity, are cleaner than petrol cars. But not by much. But as the grid becomes cleaner, the cars become cleaner with it.

I'm not a huge fan of the stance of "Well electric cars have all these issues". Yes they do. They aren't perfect. But I can't think of an engineering solution for anything that is perfect. If you'd said 200 years ago we'd need to build super structures in the sea that pump oil back to land, is refined, and then distributed around the entire world, they'd have laughed. But we overcame that because we had to. Similarly, electric vehicles will overcome the issues they have (unfortunately this won't make them as amazing as a V12).

I don't think public transport will improve enough for people to switch to it. It's more likely that self-driving cars will replace taxis and nobody will own a car at that point and you'll just hire the car to get too and from work. Work places will stagger start and finish times to allow for availability, and ride sharing will become common. You can see this in action with Uber. Take out the driver and the business model is complete.

As difficult a solution as self-driving is, we've been trying to fix public transport in some countries for decades and made no progress. This will be taken out of their hands eventually.

[BertMk2]

An electric car would in theory be ideal for my daily commute - 30 miles each way, I have a driveway so could plug it in overnight. The things stopping me at the moment are:

Purchase cost - compared to the equivalent ICE car they're just to expensive.

Lifespan - with battery degredation range drops over time, the current rate of degredation is too high and the battery will be dead long before the rest of the car. At which point the car is effectively junk as the cost of replacing the battery will be more than the cars value at that point. Typically I buy a car at 3 years old and keep it for 8-10 years. Hybrids suffer with the same battery degredation issues - so you're effectively going to be lugging around the weight of a dead battery from halfway through the cars life.

Range isn't so much of a concern for me day to day - as long as we have another car that's capable of doing the long runs we're ok (we are a 2 car household - 1 estate, 1 small hatchback). We're almost at the point where electric is viable for the '2nd car', not close to being an option for the only car or 'main car' yet.

I'm not vehemently against electric cars - I'd imagine a small electric hatchback would be an absolute hoot to drive on the lanes I use to get to work, instant torque for maximum giggles and the 'clean air' benefits are obvious. It just feels to me that we're very much still '1st generation' in terms of electric cars - until we get '2nd generation' and beyond they're not viable for the majority of people.

Mass transit systems work well in large urban areas (I wouldn't bother even trying to drive in central London) but in rural areas they aren't viable. Freight really should be on the railways - but you'd need large hubs throughout the country to transfer goods onto/off the rail network (or many more smaller hubs). It would require a massive investment in infrastructure - I dread to think how much!

Of course the other option is to drastically reduce national and global population to a more sustainable level. That's another topic entirely though!

[Tel 911S]

The idea of putting goods on the railways often comes up until you work out the logistics .
They spent £ Billions upgrading the rail line into Felixstowe dock , [ the biggest container port in the country ] , & can now carry thousands more containers every week .
But the end result is that about 7% of total goods movements are now by rail , up from about 4% . And there is no way that the figures can go much higher over the country as a whole .

As for EVs . There is not the generation capacity or charge infrastructure to cope with more than a small percentage of the total number of vehicles .
Through the Winter months , if about 5% of the total vehicles were EVs & plugged in to the grid at the same time , [ might just cope with 10% in Summer time ] ,
then widescale blackouts . And the grid cannot be restarted until they are unplugged , [ which is why they want you to go "Smart Meters" , so they can cut out the high loads to restart the grid ]

[Mike Harte]

It does need to be borne in mind that the UK's railway infrastructure is already running at near or full capacity, and would need to be completely overhauled if extra capacity was to be created.

A lot of people, including politicians and the media, seem to have forgotten that one of the main drivers behind the original thinking about HS2 was that by diverting the higher speed inter-city trains onto their own dedicated tracks, it would free up much needed space on existing lines to run slower commuter type trains plus extra freight trains.

[Adam43]

Originally Posted by Tel 911S

...
But the end result is that about 7% of total goods movements are now by rail , up from about 4% . And there is no way that the figures can go much higher over the country as a whole .
...
Through the Winter months , if about 5% of the total vehicles were EVs & plugged in to the grid at the same time , [ might just cope with 10% in Summer time ] ,
then widescale blackouts . And the grid cannot be restarted until they are unplugged ,

Do you have a link to a source for both these stats?

[Tel 911S]

Originally Posted by Adam43

Do you have a link to a source for both these stats?

No handy link for the railways stats , did look it up a while ago out of interest because Felixstowe is close to me .

The EV figures are just basic maths .
Total generation capacity of the UK as a whole is just over 50GWh , with a constant base load of about 30GWh . https://gridwatch.templar.co.uk/
shows ongoing load , [ about 40GWh at the moment ].
Total registered vehicles in UK , [ cars & small vans ], is about 32,000,000 .
Averaging that lot out over low rate home chargers & commercial charge units , allowing for grid loss & AC to DC charge rate loss would total up to something like well over 200GWh load if they all plugged in at once .