MotoGP 2022

[Dani Filth]

Originally Posted by Gerard C

Of course it's not that bad and now we know that Luca Marmorini and his team will build improved engines. When will those be avalaible is a good question imo.

did not seem to need improved engines in Barcelona ..

[S griffin]

To be fair Barcelona has never been a power circuit, despite it's relatively long pit straight

[GORDON STREETER]

Jack Miller to join KTM. The three-time MotoGP race winner will partner Brad Binder from 2023, who has a contract in place through to the end of 2024.

[S griffin]

Hopefully he can rediscover his form there, he is just not gelling with Ducati atm

[gomick]

Amazing how quickly he has lost pace - last 2 races he has been nowhere!

[Schummy]

My following opinions about who can and who cannot be reasonable contenders for the title are just based on the current points gap and the number of races to go. It let us to calculate the "one race gap" statistic
that measure the "statistical" difficulty of overcome a gap. It also reflects relatively well my subjective opinion about the situation.

MotoGP:


There appear to be just two contenders and, very, very marginally other two who could become contenders
(Bastia and Zarko). They, B & Z, to become merely minor contenders, would have to have an excellent result in the next race AND Quartararo a disastrous one, .

On the other hand, a bad result of Espargaro against Quartararo in Sachs would leave us without any challenger against Fabio.

A combinatory calculation shows that Aleix surpassing Fabio at the end of the season has currently a probability of approx 21%.

Moto2:


Three contenders in this category, and some others that could recover that status in the next race, particularly A.Fernandez and Arbolino. If those two do a good race against Vietti, they will be again pretenders to the title. Even Roberts could do it, but I am less sure abut this.

Ogura is pretty solid as contender, except if he has a dismal day in the German race. The other challenger, Canet, is in danger of being left out if he has a bad race against the leader Vietti.

Combinatory probabilities tell us that Ogura has a probability of 35% to surpass Vietti at the end of the season, while Canet has a 29%

Moto3:


Only two real contenders for the title. However, Masia and Foggia have some minor options to go back to become contenders if they have a great race against a dismal race for Garcia.

Meanwhile, Guevara has to avoid a disaster in Germany because it would throw him out of the picture, leaving us with virtually an one horse race for the title. In this time of the season a disastrous race can be determinant.

Combinations shows us that Guevara has approx a 36% chance to overcome Garc?*a.


The events in the last races have considerably brought down the number of reasonable contenders for the titles. If it continues that way, we could have a very boring end of the season (title-wise). It is difficult to believe in Moto3, though.



Sachsenring is such a peculiar track that I hope it can throw us one or two surprises {wishful thinking}.

[Gerard C]

Lets see what's gonna happen tomorrow, Bagania/Ducati, Quartararo/Yamaha and Zarco/ Ducati Pramac sharing the front row. It seems the tires will play an important role as usual but may be more than that.

[S griffin]

Well that wasn't even a contest. Once again Bagania throws away his chances with a mistake. After that it was a walk in the park for Fabio. Zarco seemed to be not too far behind though. But it was a bit of a damp squib, until the Miller/Espagaro battle for third. Aleix seemed to be struggling in the last stages

[GORDON STREETER]

Well Quartararo for me seems to be the perfect rider just like Marquez was a few years back except that he seems to be able to ride on that edge without actually falling off like Marc did in latter years. However Marc had that amazing ability to save those lo sides back in the day, but possibly had the best bike on the grid for the years when he ruled the roost. Yamaha will obviously try to hang on to Fabio for as long as possible as I can't see anyone at the moment who could ride that bike like him.

[Gerard C]

Agreed Gordon.

[Schummy]

Sachsenring Moto 3:


Before the race we had one contender against the leader (Guevara) and two more hanging on their nails (Masia and Foggia). These two needed some heroic performance to become truly contenders, their title train was already going out of the station.


We know that, in the race, Foggia did pretty well but was not enough as Garcia was just behind him. So, we have had a sort of draw: Foggia will have another "heroic" opportunity in Assen.


Masia was sunk for good, it will not be a contender at very least in the near future.



A bit of calculation shows that, if things continues in the present state, Garcia and Guevara have approx probabilities for the title of 63% and 34%, respectively.



It is like if we throw a dice (or a die) and Garcia gets the title with 1,2,3,4 and Guevara with 5 and 6. In comparison, Foggia would need to throw the dice three times, the first two times getting "6" and the third time would have to get 5 or 6. Very hard for Dennis, is not it?



Basically, it is now a two horse race with those two pretty close.

[Gerard C]

Time laps very close at TT Assen, from 1'31"5 to 1'31"8
Bagnaia, Quartararo, Martin, Bezecchi and A Espargaro, then come Miller, Zarco and Oliveira.

[Dani Filth]

With A.Marquez confirmed at Gresini .. does this more or less confirms Enea at Ducati?

[E.B]

Originally Posted by Dani Filth

With A.Marquez confirmed at Gresini .. does this more or less confirms Enea at Ducati?

Enea Bastianini has signed a new factory deal with Ducati for 2023, but it is yet to be decided whether he will join Bagnaia at the factory squad or move to Pramac in place of Jorge Martin should he be promoted.

[Gerard C]

At the end of the day we have Bagnaia, Bezzecchi and M Viñales on the podium. Fabio went down twice but what if A Espargaro had a clear race? He went from 15 to 4 th. What a rider!

[E.B]

Originally Posted by Gerard C

At the end of the day we have Bagnaia, Bezzecchi and M Viñales on the podium. Fabio went down twice but what if A Espargaro had a clear race? He went from 15 to 4 th. What a rider!

Yeah Espargaro was brilliant in his comeback.... and to take two places on the final chicane on the final lap was impressive. Shame Fabio had 'an off day', but although he deserves the title this year, this result today will make it a bit more interesting. Quartararo also now carries forward a long lap penalty to be served at Silverstone next race.

Good also to see Bezzecchi takes a maiden podium for himself and VR46 team.

[Gerard C]

Yep, Bezzecchi last lap was a master piece too. I dont see the long lap as a huge penalty at Silverstone, depending on when it applies during the race.



As to the comments of Yamaha refering to Nakagami's previous incidents I feel strange that many ask for more severity but only for other riders… This does not seem consistent IMO.

[justracing]

Originally Posted by E.B

Yeah Espargaro was brilliant in his comeback.... and to take two places on the final chicane on the final lap was impressive. Shame Fabio had 'an off day', but although he deserves the title this year, this result today will make it a bit more interesting. Quartararo also now carries forward a long lap penalty to be served at Silverstone next race.

Good also to see Bezzecchi takes a maiden podium for himself and VR46 team.

Second that, what a comeback ride and that double overtake was breathtaking!

[S griffin]

Great win by Bagnaia, if only he could keep it on the asphalt more often. Really out of character race from Fabio with two mistakes.

[Dani Filth]

Originally Posted by E.B

Enea Bastianini has signed a new factory deal with Ducati for 2023, but it is yet to be decided whether he will join Bagnaia at the factory squad or move to Pramac in place of Jorge Martin should he be promoted.

i dont see a need to move him to Pramac .. not a real upgrade, more like a sidegrade

[Dani Filth]

Originally Posted by Gerard C

Yep, Bezzecchi last lap was a master piece too. I dont see the long lap as a huge penalty at Silverstone, depending on when it applies during the race.



As to the comments of Yamaha refering to Nakagami's previous incidents I feel strange that many ask for more severity but only for other riders… This does not seem consistent IMO.

penalty has to be taken in 3 laps from showing it during the race .. and usually it's in the first lap.

[Gerard C]

Thanks for that Dani.

[E.B]

Originally Posted by S griffin

Really out of character race from Fabio with two mistakes.

To be fair, the second crash was not really his mistake. It seems in the first crash he severed connections to the traction control rendering it intermittent (or maybe just none functioning). He first came in to retire, but the team hoping for rain, told him to go back out so if it did rain they could change bikes. Unfortunately he soon fell foul of the troubles with the traction control resulting in the highside exit.

[S griffin]

Yes, it did seem a bit of a strange crash, so that all makes sense and I take back what I said. His first incident though was his fault, although I do agree with him that his punishment for the next race, as he hurt his chances more than Espagaro

Miller gets another penalty. Is he just attracting trouble or is he being singled out harshly a bit too much?

[Gerard C]

Many have been asking for serious punishment now it comes more or less same people say its too harsh. Is this serious?