[WEC] Aston Martin Hypercar Discussion

[deggis]

Originally Posted by TheMightyM

Marshall Pruett on the Aston Martin withdrawal:



More here.

Indeed the press release by Aston was almost comical. I didn't believe for a second that this was a "pause".

The road car project which is not being cancelled has had many delays too. Deliveries were supposed to start in Q4 last year. Based on public outings looks like no more than 3 test mules? even exist. Of course AM wouldn't ever officially cite this as a reason. The convergence turned out be an convenient excuse.

ps. I just realized Andy Palmer has now overseen two of the most pathetic LMP programs in recent years (he was the VP of marketing or something and very visible figure in the early stages of the Nissan program).

[Mal]

Originally Posted by deggis

Indeed the press release
The road car project which is not being cancelled has had many delays too. Deliveries were supposed to start in Q4 last year. Based on public outings looks like no more than 3 test mules? even exist. Of course AM wouldn't ever officially cite this as a reason. The convergence turned out be an convenient excuse.
.

The road car project will be terminated whenever the contract with Red Bull expires. imo

[mogwai]

Originally Posted by deggis

Indeed the press release by Aston was almost comical. I didn't believe for a second that this was a "pause".
The road car project which is not being cancelled has had many delays too. Deliveries were supposed to start in Q4 last year. Based on public outings looks like no more than 3 test mules? even exist. Of course AM wouldn't ever officially cite this as a reason. The convergence turned out be an convenient excuse.

ps. I just realized Andy Palmer has now overseen two of the most pathetic LMP programs in recent years (he was the VP of marketing or something and very visible figure in the early stages of the Nissan program).

I'm glad someone else noticed this. His failure at Nissan, his proximity to Carlos Ghosn, and the inexplicable push to create a vanity project at Aston when they clearly needed to improve operational efficiency shows his focus was completely incorrect, imo. Yesterday, I read an old article where he was quoted saying that he always wanted to be the CEO of a car company. Well, he was and he nearly caused it's collapse.

There are people smarter than me here, but below is something I posted elsewhere related to their financials and how much trouble the firm was in in 2018.

Accounts Receivables jumped by 165% in 2018 v 2017 accounting for 35% of current assets in 1 year...at the same time Cash ratio declined from .32 to .18 while Current Ratio declined from .79 to .68. Aston stacked as many sales as possible into receivables (perhaps to sell them off for cash during 2019?) and when looking at days sales outstanding a rough estimate from the 2018 annual release indicates they had 157.25 days sales outstanding...Remember, these are sales WHICH THEY NEEDED TO COLLECT ON at a later date and all this from a firm that was admittedly CASH POOR.

And in 2019 he was nearly ebullient when discussing the additional short term debt they took on all in an attempt to delay the inevitable cash liquidity that was on the horizon...AND the access to the debt was contingent upon orders for the SUV...else, the debt turned into 15% coupon debt. Downgraded to CCC after the debt issuance from a single-B company (HY but much further away from default) illustrates how short-sighted (or worse) his attempt was.

There was no cushion for any contingency. Simply, in hindsight, it appears a bet not unlike putting all your chips on the table for one last roll of the dice.

Stroll, it appears, knows how to run a company and hopefully he will nix all the frivolity and Aston will be able to be more operationally more efficient while also remaining in motorsports at some level other than just F1. Andy Palmer and his "Second Century Plan" was a huge bust.

[chernaudi]

If Palmer is at fault, you have to remember he has no ties to the ownership of the company, and AM is now a publicly traded company. Why not just fire him or make him quit/go away? Even if AM was still fully privately held the board or the owner(s) you'd think would have the power to force him out or ask/force him to resign.

Same thing you have to remember happened nearly a decade ago to Wendelin Wiedeking at Porsche when he ran that company into debt when it tried to take over control of VAG. Hell, Porsche and VAG paid him 50 million Euros to resign and retire.

[joeb]

Dagys has an article on how AM committing to Hypercar actually setback global prototype regulations.

https://sportscar365.com/lemans/wec/...ercar-not-dpi/

[Bcarr6]

Originally Posted by joeb

Dagys has an article on how AM committing to Hypercar actually setback global prototype regulations.

https://sportscar365.com/lemans/wec/...ercar-not-dpi/

little bit sensationalist, but close to valid.

the ACO wouldnt have hypercar that quickly even if AM hadnt comitted

[mogwai]

Originally Posted by chernaudi

If Palmer is at fault, you have to remember he has no ties to the ownership of the company, and AM is now a publicly traded company. Why not just fire him or make him quit/go away? Even if AM was still fully privately held the board or the owner(s) you'd think would have the power to force him out or ask/force him to resign.

Good point, but he DOES have ties to the company. He is the 4th largest shareholder, salary of £1.2million and 12 month employment contract it looks like. He's like the headcoach of a football team. He IS the guy who is responsible for the CCC rated debt.

But, beside that there are 2 large shareholder groups which account for ~64% of all outstanding shares. These are then followed by Najeeb Al Humaidh and then Andy Palmer. So unless a shareholder rallies one of the larger of the 2 shareholding blocks behind them, then nothing will change if the primary shareholders are disinterested or feel the company is heading the right direction.

It seems that a large shareholder sold a number of shares throughout the breadth of 2019. That person was Najeeb Al Humaidh. He sold ~50million in shares from May to October of 2019. So there is maybe a lack of confidence from the 3rd largest shareholder who held ~20% and now holds 11%.

Clearly, a large shareholder moving that kind of capital out of any firm raises eyebrows. Traditionally they don't leave a firm if they have confidence in leadership. But, confidence is leadership is not a homogenous concept. Clearly, the other investors haven't wanted to force Andy Palmer out...why would that be? No idea, but perhaps to attract other ownership at levels which make the investment attractive to other people with more experience in industrial or manufacturing? And, perhaps someone who has the expertise to see that leadership needs to go.

I suspect Palmer is short lived at Aston. In my humble opinion, as a massive fan of the marquee, I hope he will be sent on gardening leave within the year.

[rich07]

Originally Posted by Mal

The road car project will be terminated whenever the contract with Red Bull expires. imo

Somehow I doubt that given that it’ll be a money spinner unlike the racecar. With that said there is at least one customer cancelling their order due to changes in spec differing to what was originally promised. The new XJ220??

[GT6]

Originally Posted by rich07

Somehow I doubt that given that it’ll be a money spinner unlike the racecar. With that said there is at least one customer cancelling their order due to changes in spec differing to what was originally promised. The new XJ220??

i bet those people who cancelled orders for 220 jags regret doing that now with the prices they fetch.

[Mal]

Originally Posted by rich07

Somehow I doubt that given that it’ll be a money spinner unlike the racecar. With that said there is at least one customer cancelling their order due to changes in spec differing to what was originally promised. The new XJ220??

I don't think its about the money making potential - which is a definite. But more about the contract that must exist between Red Bull and Aston Martin.

The new investment from Mr Stroll etc and the consequential tie up with Racing Point means that any ties with Red Bull are likely to be ended once the committed contracts expire. From there I guess it will be a question of who actually owns the rights to the car - maybe it will reinvent itself as a Red Bull road car?

[broadrun96]

Does the contract run through production of the cars? Would seem to be odd to end during the car's run or are we just speculating again?

[TF110]

This might have slipped by, but I caught it in the racer.com article on Toyota deciding to continue

Vasselon did admit his frustration in Aston Martin pulling out, especially as the British marque had steered the Hypercar regulations in a direction that matched its own priorities before committing.

“It’s frustrating, because the manufacturer that has somehow steered the regulations and caused delays is gone,” he said. :We just want to be positive and move forward. It would be difficult to estimate (how much money it cost), it cost a lot of time for the people working on the program, that’s for sure.”

Bolded for emphasis. Pascal Vasselon is basically confirming what we've long suspected about AM's demands and the way the rules were formed.

[Mal]

Originally Posted by broadrun96

Does the contract run through production of the cars? Would seem to be odd to end during the car's run or are we just speculating again?

I assume they will continue through the currently planned run as that is probably what the contracts say - and yes it is speculation as I have no inside knowledge.

[truebeliever]

Originally Posted by Bcarr6

little bit sensationalist, but close to valid.

the ACO wouldnt have hypercar that quickly even if AM hadnt comitted

One should read anything 365 comments on, with a pinch of salt. It has become known for inventing news for its readers.

[broadrun96]

Originally Posted by truebeliever

One should read anything 365 comments on, with a pinch of salt. It has become known for inventing news for its readers.

Well that article was a commentary article so.

[Adam43]

Originally Posted by GT6

i bet those people who cancelled orders for 220 jags regret doing that now with the prices they fetch.

Off topic.

They would have to have waited years. At one point they were down to £70k.

If anyone bought one new and still have it. Brilliant, that probably means they were an enthusiast and also probably means they are unlikely to sell now.

They were £340k new. £709k allowing for inflation (I use BoE calculator). OK this is not an interest rate, but if you’d invested the £340k you’d have done better. I don’t think they are fetching that at the moment. More like they are back to their original, or a bit over, the original list price (ignoring inflation).

https://www.classicdriver.com/en/car..._type=advanced

It would have been better to invest in gold (or others, this link is kinda fun)
https://financial-calculators.com/hi...ent-calculator

[Adam43]

Originally Posted by TF110

...

Bolded for emphasis. Pascal Vasselon is basically confirming what we've long suspected about AM's demands and the way the rules were formed.

I can see that this is very frustrating for all, especially Toyota and the ACO.

The rules may well have been different, but would the timing? A year earlier?

[hondafan37]

LMDh “Damaged” Customer Aston LMH Sales Potential
Customer Valkyrie LMH cars would have formed “significant part” of project funding…

https://sportscar365.com/lemans/wec/...les-potential/

[Deleted]

Originally Posted by hondafan37

LMDh “Damaged” Customer Aston LMH Sales Potential
Customer Valkyrie LMH cars would have formed “significant part” of project funding…

https://sportscar365.com/lemans/wec/...les-potential/

It requires time to evaluate if there's customer market still? Does he actually mean anti-time? Mr Data would you please come to the bridge, now.

Anyway someone's comment to the article:
"They shouldn't be allowed at the steering committee meetings. Go sit on the sidelines and let the adults with money and plans talk. And I NEVER thought I would say the ACO was the more thoughtful and mature group"

Right... while annoying, it is not the fault of Aston Martin when they lobby for favorable rules and pull out whenever it suits them. That's like saying it's the fault of family dog when it sleeps on the bed, when it shouldn't. It is the fault of the organizer giving up to such lobbyism and building the entire concept around marketing promises

They say whenever you end up in the old folks home, you become a kid again. That is exactly what's happened to the senile ACO, the end of adulthood and going back to childhood.

[TF110]

The aco/wec admits that they knew Aston was in financial trouble and they knew Stroll was going to take the helm. At least they were aware of the second part when the rest of the world was. From there, I think the negotiating should have been switched to the ACO having a position of power. Now they have Peugeot in the room, AM should be pushed further back and their desires dropped. Hypercar should take a different look or route. Peugeot is interested in hybrids, so the dropping of two systems seems like a big waste. So is the 1100kg and the road car requirement.

[carbsmith]

Originally Posted by Adam43

The rules may well have been different, but would the timing? A year earlier?

Depends how you mean that. They wouldn't debut the class any earlier, but there would have been a rule book and actual cars a heck of a lot sooner. You remove the road car ghost brigade and the issues with lap times and messing with LMP2 evaporate as well.

[deggis]

Originally Posted by hondafan37

LMDh “Damaged” Customer Aston LMH Sales Potential
Customer Valkyrie LMH cars would have formed “significant part” of project funding…

https://sportscar365.com/lemans/wec/...les-potential/

Excuses just keep coming up.

I rremember back in or around June there was talk about a secondary team (so 4 cars in total) and now they make it sound like as if it had been the modern 956/962 equivalent.

“It’s got nothing to do with Lawrence Stroll coming in; it’s got nothing to do with the fact that we’ve had a tougher-than-expected financial year,” King said."

[broadrun96]

Yeah, put down the shovels. NOTHING you say can help, it can only hurt. Lick your wounds and prep Lawrence for the potential of his son not staying with your F1 team and move to sportscar racing.

Then pretend LMDh is what you really wanted and call it the next Norse god on your list. You will be welcomed back, sportscar racing always let's people come back. Otherwise we would have booted you and Nissan after those efforts.

[TF110]

I was looking forward to seeing one in R-Motorsport colors too. I'm not really upset they're not joining, especially because I now believe it wouldn't be as great of a car they bragged of. I am upset they had the regs moved to their favor and we have to live with the consequences of cars barely faster than lmp2. But this weekend's race at COTA is the same story so I guess it's already here

[joeb]

Originally Posted by TF110

I was looking forward to seeing one in R-Motorsport colors too. I'm not really upset they're not joining, especially because I now believe it wouldn't be as great of a car they bragged of.

But didn't they say they would have to detune the car to make it fit within the speed requirements suggested by the class?

I joke, but seriously I am sad they won't be on the grid. I think that car is fantastic looking.