Who will win the Championships?

[Born Racer]

Yes but Red Bull often find a way of messing up, so Alonso could easily get second.

[hgmonaro]

jeezz E.B. When did he crap in your weeties?

[bjohnsonsmith]

Vettel and Webber finished 1st and 2nd last year and I believe Webber has the edge over Vettel as far as engines go.

[Mr V]

Originally Posted by Adam43

. Trouble is that there were two quicker cars today and he only finished third.

Points:

I think it will end up

Points:

Pos	Driver	Points	Behind	Wins
1	Alonso	261	0	5
2	Vettel	256	-6	5
3	Webber	256	-6	4

[jab]

I think Vettel might do it. He'll probably beat Mark over the weekend as he did last year, and I honestly wouldn't be surprised if this is the weekend where we see a certain red car parked on the side, perhaps with engine parts and smoke coming out of the back

[Mr V]

Originally Posted by jab

I think Vettel might do it. He'll probably beat Mark over the weekend as he did last year, and I honestly wouldn't be surprised if this is the weekend where we see a certain red car parked on the side, perhaps with engine parts and smoke coming out of the back

Fingers crossed

I have wondered if it will be that the very first time Seb leads the championship is the time he wins the title?

[ralf fan]

Webber will just about do it I reckon. If Seb is ahead he'll let him through. I have no doubts about it.

Qually and turn 1 will be key to Alonso's title hopes. He must nip ahead of one of the Red Bulls and more importantly stay ahead of the Mclarens. Mclaren are fast enough to trouble Ferrari but not fast enough to trouble Red Bull.

[ralf fan]

Originally Posted by jab

I think Vettel might do it. He'll probably beat Mark over the weekend as he did last year, and I honestly wouldn't be surprised if this is the weekend where we see a certain red car parked on the side, perhaps with engine parts and smoke coming out of the back

A lapped Massa retiring will have no bearing on the result.

[jab]

lol, he was awful today, wasn't he?

[bjohnsonsmith]

Originally Posted by ralf fan

A lapped Massa retiring will have no bearing on the result.

That's if that is what happens in the last race.

[gert]

For Webber, he must either beat Vettel on his own and win the race, or hope that Alonso's car stays alive somewhere around pos 3 or 4 and that Vettel will be kind enough to give him a hand.

For Vettel, he must win, and hope that Alonso doesn't finish 4th or better.
In case Alonso's car doesn't break, he needs 3 cars between him and Alonso.
(Webber?, Hamilton?, ?)

Alonso wins if he finishes first or second. Everything else depends on the Red Bull positions.


THE nightmare scenario for Red Bull would be a crash between Webber and Vettel when they are left fighting it out between themselves.

Another possible nightmare would be where Webber is passed at the start by say Hamilton, with Alonso following in 4th. At that point there is no shuffling that would help either of their drivers.

---

If hope Webber can do it on his own, but I think Alonso is the man.

[Mr V]

Originally Posted by bjohnsonsmith

That's if that is what happens in the last race.

Todays performance (and indeed most of the season) doesn't inspire confidence in the possibility of him being up the pointy end next weekend.

[bjohnsonsmith]

Originally Posted by Mr V

Todays performance (and indeed most of the season) doesn't inspire confidence in the possibility of him being up the pointy end next weekend.

True but then again, you never know.

[Trev Campbell]

I think Alonso is a real shot at winning in Abu Dhabi, The circuit has a lot of right angle corners ala Singapore. I think the Ferrari will be very close to the Red Bull's or even between them which will make team orders impossible and denying Webber the person between him and Alonso he will need, if he's the RB in front. In which case Red Bull handed Alonso the title in Brazil.

I can't see the McLaren's being a factor. The podium will be the 2 RB's and Alonso in some order.

[strider]

Some very clear thoughts from Joe Saward.

Most people would say, I think, that if Alonso wins it should be by more points than he gained in Germany when Massa stepped aside.

On the other hand, if Red Bull ask Vettel to let Webber slide past next weekend it will no worse than Ferrari did and arguably more acceptable because it will the last race of the season and the title could well be at stake.

Of course Mark might have one of his special weekends and blitz everyone which, for the integrity of the Championship, would be the best solution.

[bjohnsonsmith]

Originally Posted by strider

Some very clear thoughts from Joe Saward.

Most people would say, I think, that if Alonso wins it should be by more points than he gained in Germany when Massa stepped aside.

On the other hand, if Red Bull ask Vettel to let Webber slide past next weekend it will no worse than Ferrari did and arguably more acceptable because it will the last race of the season and the title could well be at stake.

Of course Mark might have one of his special weekends and blitz everyone which, for the integrity of the Championship, would be the best solution.

I don't think it would be any more acceptable to ask Vettel to let Webber go past and certainly very unfair as Vettel still has a shot at the WDC.

[rocketracer]

Originally Posted by gert

For Webber, he must either beat Vettel on his own and win the race, or hope that Alonso's car stays alive somewhere around pos 3 or 4 and that Vettel will be kind enough to give him a hand.

For Vettel, he must win, and hope that Alonso doesn't finish 4th or better.
In case Alonso's car doesn't break, he needs 3 cars between him and Alonso.
(Webber?, Hamilton?, ?)

Alonso wins if he finishes first or second. Everything else depends on the Red Bull positions.


THE nightmare scenario for Red Bull would be a crash between Webber and Vettel when they are left fighting it out between themselves.

Another possible nightmare would be where Webber is passed at the start by say Hamilton, with Alonso following in 4th. At that point there is no shuffling that would help either of their drivers.

---

If hope Webber can do it on his own, but I think Alonso is the man.

the biggest nightmare scenario is:

webber does find a way to be leading the race early, vettel faster but in 2nd, alonso 4/5th. Vettel goes to overtake webber, and another collision taking them both out.

however, this would be a suitable summation of the overall season.

[strider]

Originally Posted by bjohnsonsmith

I don't think it would be any more acceptable to ask Vettel to let Webber go past and certainly very unfair as Vettel still has a shot at the WDC.

Statistically, yes, but he can't win unless something unlikely happens to the leading pair.

It may be that the Red Bull changeover, if there is one, doesn't happen until the last lap.

[bjohnsonsmith]

Originally Posted by strider

Statistically, yes, but he can't win unless something unlikely happens to the leading pair.

It may be that the Red Bull changeover, if there is one, doesn't happen until the last lap.

That's if Vettel and Webber are running 3rd and 4th respectively.

[bravo]

Taken from Joe Saward's blog. Which of these do you think will come true?

1) Red Bull will not order Vettel to let Webber past even if it means giving the WDC to Alonso/Ferrari
a) Not surprised
b) Surprised but not shocked
c) Simply unthinkable

2) Vettel will not let Webber past him, irregardless of what the team order him to do.
a) Not surprised
b) Surprised but not shocked
c) Simply unthinkable

3) Senna-Prost history repeats itself in Abu Dhabi. Webber-Vettel, the latest iteration.
a) Not surprised
b) RBR = Right Bozo’s Racing
c) Simply unthinkable

4) Lewis Hamilton seizes the championship by 1 point as the top 3 contenders all fail to finish.
a) stranger things have happened
b) not gonna happen
c) poetic justice

5) Alonso/Ferrari 2010 World Driving Champions. RBR falls on its sword in order to uphold the purist of sporting priciples.
a) All honor RBR, the ultimate sportsmen
b) yeah, right
c) True sportsmen, honorable principles… maybe… maybe not.

6) Webber benefits from team orders to beat Ferrari at its game and claim 2010 WDC
a) Nothing wrong with that, championship well deserved.
b) Alonso, Webber, its all the same. A championship won by team orders is a championship tainted.
c) It’s nether here nor there. It’s simply F1 reality since forever.

[chillibowl]

why does Vettel need to be "ordered" to do anything. if this scenario arises, i hope he has enough sense, sportmanship, and team spirit to know without being told that if he is ahead of his teammate he should move over.

maybe its naive but for me Massa moving aside for Alonso makes him a gentleman not a cheat...the same would be true for Vettel if he chooses to do the same. my only hope is that one day when/if faced with a similar scenario Alonso or Webber will choose to reciprocate in a similarly gentlemanly fashion.

[Mr V]

Originally Posted by chillibowl

why does Vettel need to be "ordered" to do anything. if this scenario arises, i hope he has enough sense, sportmanship, and team spirit to know without being told that if he is ahead of his teammate he should move over.

Hasn't Vettel already said that if it comes to the end of the race and he can't win the title, he'll help Webber. Gentleman enough for you?

[chillibowl]

i was not aware he had said that and with all the talk about orders during the race i was under the impression that Vettel would not be inclined to move over without being ordered to do so (and that RB would never issue that order).

since he has said this whats all the fuss about team orders for then?

[Ralf's Girl]

Originally Posted by chillibowl

maybe its naive but for me Massa moving aside for Alonso makes him a gentleman not a cheat...the same would be true for Vettel if he chooses to do the same. my only hope is that one day when/if faced with a similar scenario Alonso or Webber will choose to reciprocate in a similarly gentlemanly fashion.

I don't think Massa "chose" to do anything. The "Can you confirm you understand?" was a fairly thinly-veiled threat that to do anything other than understand would be a really bad idea.

And I will eat my own eyeballs if Fernando Alonso ever voluntarily lets a team-mate beat him.

[chillibowl]

Originally Posted by Ralf's Girl

I don't think Massa "chose" to do anything....

i know that is the conventional wisdom on that episode, however, for me i feel as though Massa made this choice to be a company man a long time ago...so why would Ferrari feel the need to all of a sudden threaten a loyal employee over a situation that at the time provided only the slimmest of margins for the title push?

Originally Posted by Ralf's Girl

And I will eat my own eyeballs if Fernando Alonso ever voluntarily lets a team-mate beat him.

haha. earlier in the season we saw him pass his team mate in the pit entry. that is his mentality and makes one wonder why his teammate would ever help him...unless they were threatened to do so...no wait thats not my point...my point is that Massa loves Ferrari more than he loves himself...i think.

seriously though, to say that Ferrari could only get Massa's compliance through threats is excessive. i hope that type of behaviour is beyond even Ferrari's arrogance. they do however cultivate blind faith and misguided loyalty so maybe the difference here is just a matter of perspective.