THE F1 COVID THREAD: Will GP be cancelled?

[Greem]

Button (in a McLaren) and Vettel (in a Red Bull) have both turned laps around Bathurst. I think Button still holds the outright fastest lap.

Both of them had opinions which were basically "what a great circuit, but F1 wouldn't work here".

[Anyopenroad]

Originally Posted by S griffin

Imagine F1 at Bathurst!

I doubt we would see a single green-flag racing lap. Every session would have multiple red flags. The repair bills would be horrendous. Half the cars would start from the pit lane because of the number of destroyed components being replaced. If they did manage to get racing, there would be no overtaking.

A bit like Monaco then, only worse, but with beautiful mountain backdrops rather than yachts.

It would be awesome, they should definitely do it .

[chavez]

Originally Posted by Alan52

I’ve been posting here since last year that the earliest a F1 Grand Prix will happen at Albert Park is November 2022.Will stick by that.

Probably close to the money.

I am a little more pessimistic and have been saying we have seen the last F1 AGP for the foreseeable future.

[chillibowl]

Wrong thread sorry.

[Casper]

Originally Posted by chavez

Probably close to the money.

I am a little more pessimistic and have been saying we have seen the last F1 AGP for the foreseeable future.

I think a few in Oz have been thinking the same but I don't want to be that pessimistic just yet. November next year or bust I reckon and that still presents the same problem of having two races very close together and the Government having to fund those races, that's when the brown stuff might hit the rotating blades big time and choices of a single date being forced on the promoters. If that was to come about 2023 might be the next date. The bright side of all this could be the Government talking it up as a way of getting tourism rolling again.

[S griffin]

If next year’s November date works, fingers crossed, who’s to say they won’t want that date again? Just like the good old Australian GPs at Adelaide

[chavez]

ABC and other outlets reporting that the AGP will be cancelled this year. Stay tuned.

[Tourer]

Originally Posted by chavez

ABC and other outlets reporting that the AGP will be cancelled this year. Stay tuned.

Story here in Fairfax sites. Official announcement due later today but clearly the decision has been made and leaked.

As expected - hopefully more detail this arve on what the future plans are.

[E.B]

Originally Posted by Tourer

Story here in Fairfax sites. Official announcement due later today but clearly the decision has been made and leaked.

As expected - hopefully more detail this arve on what the future plans are.

CONFIRMED: Australian F1 and MotoGP races cancelled
https://www.speedcafe.com/2021/07/06...ces-cancelled/

[Dixie Flatline]

Australian Grand Prix officially cancelled.

https://twitter.com/ausgrandprix/sta...75229800292353

Official Formula 1 response to the news of cancellation.

https://twitter.com/F1Media/status/1412281350288248832

Personally, I'm gutted I won't get to go, but I do understand the reasons why. Hopefully Australia will be ready to host the event in 2022.

[S griffin]

Sad news, but not unexpected. Hopefully we will see it return in 2022. There is talk that enough people are vaccinated by the end of this year they might open up the borders again

[billy bleach]

Originally Posted by S griffin

Sad news, but not unexpected. Hopefully we will see it return in 2022. There is talk that enough people are vaccinated by the end of this year they might open up the borders again

7% of the population double vaccinated and a high relucantance 25% say they won't have it Wierd

[chillibowl]

Sad news but no way they can leave a full month hole between Brazil and Saudi.

mid November weather takes a lot of potential replacements off the table though.

[Richard C]

Originally Posted by billy bleach

7% of the population double vaccinated and a high relucantance 25% say they won't have it Wierd

Early in the pandemic I figured that once vaccines were available that people would broadly take it and it would be over. In hindsight I was naive because if you give people an opportunity to do the wrong thing, a substantial quantity will pick that path.

This is not a commentary about Australia or Australians as this issue is worldwide. Add on top of that, poor governmental response (acquisition and distribution of vaccines) and this entire thing is going to last much longer than it should.

But that 7% double dose rate is scary.

Richard

[Anyopenroad]

Originally Posted by Richard Casto

But that 7% double dose rate is scary.

There is a paradox that the countries which arguably handled Covid least well at first (UK, US) are coming out of it better, thanks to vaccines, than countries which initially reacted much better (Aus, NZ) but which now have no exit strategy. Australia not only has low vaccine distribution, it also has zero acquired immunity. That is a scary place to be with a hyper-infectious variant which it is virtually impossible to keep out. Borders have to re-open at some point, but right now it looks like that might not be before 2023.

[bjohnsonsmith]

Originally Posted by Anyopenroad

There is a paradox that the countries which arguably handled Covid least well at first (UK, US) are coming out of it better, thanks to vaccines, than countries which initially reacted much better (Aus, NZ) but which now have no exit strategy. Australia not only has low vaccine distribution, it also has zero acquired immunity. That is a scary place to be with a hyper-infectious variant which it is virtually impossible to keep out. Borders have to re-open at some point, but right now it looks like that might not be before 2023.

I would have thought most of the population will have been vaccinated by then.

[Anyopenroad]

Originally Posted by bjohnsonsmith

I would have thought most of the population will have been vaccinated by then.

Aussies on the forum will be better informed than me, but bearing in mind the Aus PM was saying borders would stay closed till mid-2022 even at a time when the Govt was promising full vaccination by the end of this year. Now that target has been scrapped, the rollout remains slow and hesitation is high. I don’t think we’ll be visiting for a long while.

[Richard C]

Originally Posted by Anyopenroad

Aussies on the forum will be better informed than me

Agree. I am trying to not comment much on Australia's situation as I would be poorly informed. But some speculation below that might be wrong.

My limited view is that some countries have somewhat focused on a strategy in which is just "burns itself out" (as best as I can tell) given their desire to lock down boarders. As mentioned earlier, here in the US, given the limited ability (or desire) by the prior administration to impose significant limitations on the public, for the most part, the US placed it's real hopes on vaccination.

We in the US seem to have plenty of access to vaccine. Yet if you look at data, we seem to be starting to reach a vaccination rate plateau. I think we are roughly 50% vaccinated. I will be shocked if we are able to reach 60-70% in two more years.

I was reading that data on herd immunity was with vaccination rates of around 95% for measles and 80% for polio. I have no idea what the herd immunity value will be for Covid19 and frankly I don't think we will ever know because I don't think we will reach herd immunity globally.

If Australia has implemented a lockdown strategy with a focus on vaccinations (and I assume eventual herd immunity) and given reports of 25-30% having high reluctance to the vaccine, will Australia get to herd immunity? I wonder if they will. And if that is unlikely, then what is the answer for opening the boarders, because if vaccination rates are low and they want to keep infection rate low, they can't open the boarders?

All speculation on my part. Especially on what Australia's strategy (short and long term are).

Richard

[Alan52]

Originally Posted by Richard Casto

Agree. I am trying to not comment much on Australia's situation as I would be poorly informed. But some speculation below that might be wrong.

My limited view is that some countries have somewhat focused on a strategy in which is just "burns itself out" (as best as I can tell) given their desire to lock down boarders. As mentioned earlier, here in the US, given the limited ability (or desire) by the prior administration to impose significant limitations on the public, for the most part, the US placed it's real hopes on vaccination.

We in the US seem to have plenty of access to vaccine. Yet if you look at data, we seem to be starting to reach a vaccination rate plateau. I think we are roughly 50% vaccinated. I will be shocked if we are able to reach 60-70% in two more years.

I was reading that data on herd immunity was with vaccination rates of around 95% for measles and 80% for polio. I have no idea what the herd immunity value will be for Covid19 and frankly I don't think we will ever know because I don't think we will reach herd immunity globally.

If Australia has implemented a lockdown strategy with a focus on vaccinations (and I assume eventual herd immunity) and given reports of 25-30% having high reluctance to the vaccine, will Australia get to herd immunity? I wonder if they will. And if that is unlikely, then what is the answer for opening the boarders, because if vaccination rates are low and they want to keep infection rate low, they can't open the boarders?

All speculation on my part. Especially on what Australia's strategy (short and long term are).

Richard

Australian government strategy was all about politics and wanting to do things on the cheap.
When other countries were purchasing large amounts of a range of vaccines because they weren’t sure what would be the most effective the Australian government went all in on the 2 cheapest options-AZ and one being developed by the University Of Queensland.The latter fell over in trials and the scares about blood clotting have caused vaccine hesitancy about AZ to the point where large amounts aren’t being used and the government says will be phased out by 2022.There is a small supply of Pfizer but at the moment some states have completely run out of supplies.
Australia’s low rate of infection and willingness to lock state borders when even 1 or 2 cases emerged meant large parts of the population thought this was a long term strategy.The state leaders who locked down the hardest were politically rewarded with landslide election wins.The federal government although not facing an election until early 2022 was bathed in opinion poll approval.Even locking 100,000 Australian citizens out of their own country-which is shameful- became a political winner.The government repeatedly refused to accept their constitutional duty for quarantine relying on the states to put people up in hotels to do their 14 days.A prominent member of the government today blamed the Grand Prix cancellation on a Covid outbreak from Victorian hotels that happened last year!
Life here in the hermit kingdom has changed in the last few weeks as outbreaks continue to put people into lockdown,people realise there is no prospect until the end of the year for many of them to be vaccinated and we see pictures of countries opening up.There is some resentment towards the government but they are masters of fear tactics and still feel politically invulnerable.

[Tourer]

Australia went for something of an isolation approach from early days, and some restrictions were used too. Largely this approach has been successful, particularly in regard to serious illness & deaths, which have been dramatically lower than in many countries, other than an outbreak that resulted in over 800 unfortunate deaths in Victoria.

The vaccine plan was built around 3 products - a Qld developed vaccine, Astra Zeneca initially imported then made in Oz & a modest supply of Pfizer. The Qld vaccine was discontinued after initial trials. Then AZ supply was restricted by the EU & then side effects of AZ in regard to blood clots were publicised.

So we started later than some countries which had greater need, then we had a large amount of hesitation due to publicity about blood clots due to AZ - so our rates are low but rates are building. With a 3 month gap between 1st & 2nd doses of AZ it takes a while too.

So currently the primary weapon used by authorities here is quarantine & lockdowns - which are often instigated at literally a few hours notice. Not compatible with future planning a big event.

[chavez]

This Grand Prix fan had his second shot two weeks ago but was never under any illusion that the race would proceed.

A March date in 2022 is pure fantasy and and a November date unlikely in the extreme.

[bathurst77]

Aust governments have been extremely slow making vaccine available
Im a 55 year old male with a couple of health issues, tried to get it and have been told maybe in september or october.. we are still around 10% or less.

What about a northern European/Scandinavian november race with snow, that would test the drivers and teams! Or back to Argentina or sth africa

[275 GTB-4]

Originally Posted by Dixie Flatline

Australian Grand Prix officially cancelled.

https://twitter.com/ausgrandprix/sta...75229800292353

Official Formula 1 response to the news of cancellation.

https://twitter.com/F1Media/status/1412281350288248832

Personally, I'm gutted I won't get to go, but I do understand the reasons why. Hopefully Australia will be ready to host the event in 2022.

Great opportunity to move it from VIC to NSW or elsewhere...

[Alan52]

Originally Posted by 275 GTB-4

Great opportunity to move it from VIC to NSW or elsewhere...

1-There are no other tracks in Australia rated to be able to run F1
2-The Victorian government holds a contract until 2025 and is looking to push it out until 2030.
It will be at Albert Park late 2022.

[billy bleach]

Originally Posted by Alan52

1-There are no other tracks in Australia rated to be able to run F1
2-The Victorian government holds a contract until 2025 and is looking to push it out until 2030.
It will be at Albert Park late 2022.

Doubt it……