Driver Team Mates Comparison 2011

Schummy · 11 Apr 2011, 12:37 (Ref:2861865)

Another season, another team mates comparison...

Code:

TEAM    AUS MAL    TOT Lead  Conf.
==================================
VET-WEB 101 101 =  4-2 (WEB) 31%
HAM-BUT 101 100 =  3-3 (===)  0%
ALO-MAS 101 110 =  4-2 (ALO) 31%   
HEI-PET 000 101 =  2-4 (PET) 31%
ROS-SCH 111 110 =  5-1 (ROS) 78%
==================================

As in past seasons, the binary numbers mean, consecutively, results in grid position (discounting "administrative penalties"), fastest race lap and race result, where "1" means the first driver was better and "0" signs when second driver was better. So "101" for VET-WEB in AUS is read as in Australia Vettel was better than Webber in qualifying and in race results, but worse in terms of fastest race lap.

The last column, "Conf" (Confidence), is a statistical indicator of the level of "proof" about if the leading driver in the team is really doing better of it could be just a statistical fluke. When the indicator goes beyong 95% it is almost proven, when it is greater than 99% it is considered proven. Obviously, more data is best, so we will have to wait until we have more GPs to begin reaching at some conclusions.

Just for the moment I'm following the five top teams (the three title contenders and the two possible "dark horses" of the season). Probably, later I'll include some others, even if by the moment I find them rather uninteresting from a driver comparison point of view (and from any point of view

). An exception could be Sauber, I admit, and probably Williams as well. Those two are my next goals.

**Bononi** · 11 Apr 2011, 13:01 (Ref:2861882)

Nice work mate !

Splatz the Cow · 13 Apr 2011, 08:43 (Ref:2862787)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Schummy

Another season, another team mates comparison...

Code:

TEAM    AUS MAL    TOT Lead  Conf.
==================================
VET-WEB 101 101 =  4-2 (WEB) 31%
HAM-BUT 101 100 =  3-3 (===)  0%
ALO-MAS 101 110 =  4-2 (ALO) 31%   
HEI-PET 000 101 =  2-4 (PET) 31%
ROS-SCH 111 110 =  5-1 (ROS) 78%
==================================

As in past seasons, the binary numbers mean, consecutively, results in grid position (discounting "administrative penalties"), fastest race lap and race result, where "1" means the first driver was better and "0" signs when second driver was better. So "101" for VET-WEB in AUS is read as in Australia Vettel was better than Webber in qualifying and in race results, but worse in terms of fastest race lap.

The last column, "Conf" (Confidence), is a statistical indicator of the level of "proof" about if the leading driver in the team is really doing better of it could be just a statistical fluke. When the indicator goes beyong 95% it is almost proven, when it is greater than 99% it is considered proven. Obviously, more data is best, so we will have to wait until we have more GPs to begin reaching at some conclusions.

Just for the moment I'm following the five top teams (the three title contenders and the two possible "dark horses" of the season). Probably, later I'll include some others, even if by the moment I find them rather uninteresting from a driver comparison point of view (and from any point of view

). An exception could be Sauber, I admit, and probably Williams as well. Those two are my next goals.

In the VET-WEB row, the column "Lead" should have the value, (VET).

This makes it correct for your formula, as you describe at the start.

wnut · 13 Apr 2011, 09:05 (Ref:2862790)

deleted

mattt · 13 Apr 2011, 09:19 (Ref:2862796)

Quote:

Originally Posted by wnut

I have a question that I don't wish to detract from the stats, I find them interesting, but, given that the cars often run different programs in practice, it seems that using anything other than qualifying and the race will just makes the results completely inaccurate?

Or am I missing something?

Practise isn't used

Its quali, FL and result

wnut · 13 Apr 2011, 09:28 (Ref:2862800)

Duh - sorry I tried to delete it!

**Bononi** · 13 Apr 2011, 12:04 (Ref:2862855)

Not fast enough mate...

Schummy · 13 Apr 2011, 16:45 (Ref:2862954)

LOL!

Splatz: Thanks for pointing out that error! I'll fix it when I update the table with new data.

Schummy · 17 Apr 2011, 20:13 (Ref:2865267)

After China...

Code:

TEAM    AUS MAL CHI    TOT Lead  Conf.
=====================================
VET-WEB 101 101 101 =  6-3 (VET) 49%   Let's see
HAM-BUT 101 100 011 =  5-4 (HAM)  0%   Equality
ALO-MAS 101 110 100 =  5-4 (ALO)  0%   Equality
HEI-PET 000 101 000 =  2-7 (PET) 82%   Danger!
ROS-SCH 111 110 111 =  8-1 (ROS) 96.1% Almost busted!
KOB-PER 100 111 001 =  5-4 (KOB)  0%   Equality
BAR-MAL 011 111 101 =  7-2 (BAR) 82%   Danger!
=====================================

I have now included Sauber and (the fading formerly great team) Williams, I feel those two pairs have interest to be followed.

OMG, Rosberg is already disposing of Mikey in just three races! Maybe when we will arrive Monaco things will change

Petrov is one of the surprises of the season. He is maltreating the (formerly) solid Heidfeld, upsetting every a priori forecast about Renault (errr... I mean Lotus... or whatever). The German is in danger of being busted as soon as the few next races.

Williams drivers are having a hard time trying to keep the car in one piece, but Barry at least is beating his team mate. Maldonado has to invent something or he too will be busted soon.

Equality, calm and relax in Ferrari, Mac and Sauber (well, let's say just equality). The resilient Button is not going to sink besides Hamilton, it is remarkable his skill to perform in a quietly way.

Alonso is not having the most brilliant of seasons so far. He look a bit wasted, although, ironically, he smiles more than ever (anxiolytics?), so Massa is near him. It is strange how two Latins in the archetypical Latin team are in such a state of relaxation. It's almost disappointing, from a forum-ish point of view

Perez is doing well, he is standing well against the ever surprising Kobayashi, who is not exactly described as slow. I like seeing Sauber in a good position, perhaps BMW (and a lot others) can learn how to quietly (and cheaply) make a good team by Peter-S (as so many times before).

And finally Red Bull. Obviously Vettel is doing well, but Mark is not performing so bad as sometimes it appears. For a start, MW has had some objective bad luck; also, he has been pretty quick in races, possibly more impressive than Seb (but Seb had some "easy" races). All in all, numbers suggest Vettel is doing better but Webber is not being schumacherized.

Next time I will perhaps consider Toro Rosso and Force India (particularly this one). The three remaining teams are a bit of a joke (heroic, perhaps, but joke), with theirs cars crawling and throwing bits all over the place. Perhaps the only point is to see who is having a better fading/twilight career, Trulli or Kova. But let's leave the zombies in peace.

Vettel in a Williams · 18 Apr 2011, 00:39 (Ref:2865412)

What about sticking Force India in there? As it stands, I'm sure di Resta is outperforming his 'more experienced' team mate, by some distance.

Code:

TEAM    AUS MAL CHI    TOT Lead  Conf.
=====================================
VET-WEB 101 101 101 =  6-3 (VET) 49%   Let's see
HAM-BUT 101 100 011 =  5-4 (HAM)  0%   Equality
ALO-MAS 101 110 100 =  5-4 (ALO)  0%   Equality
HEI-PET 000 101 000 =  2-7 (PET) 82%   Danger!
ROS-SCH 111 110 111 =  8-1 (ROS) 96.1% Almost busted!
KOB-PER 100 111 001 =  5-4 (KOB)  0%   Equality
BAR-MAL 011 111 101 =  7-2 (BAR) 82%   Danger!
SUT-DIR 011 000 010 =  3-6 (DIR) 49%   Let's see
=====================================

Marbot · 18 Apr 2011, 07:14 (Ref:2865490)

Perhaps now that qualifying is being used as more of a strategy session than an out-and-out performance session (see Hamiltons comments and what Webber was able to do from 18th on the grid), maybe it's inclusion in the stats is somewhat misleading?

Schummy · 18 Apr 2011, 08:30 (Ref:2865515)

I think Qualifying throws interesting info about who is the faster team mate (in raw speed). Usually team mates have a high rivalry about grid qualy time, and I don't believe many of them will concede easily a grid advantage at his mate.

Perhaps Fastest Laps is what is more debatable this year, it is a sort of indication of late race pace, with few fuel aboard. But for the moment I'll maintain it .

Marbot · 18 Apr 2011, 09:43 (Ref:2865559)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Schummy

I think Qualifying throws interesting info about who is the faster team mate (in raw speed).

It does, to some extent. But then you have to take into account many other factors too, such as reliabilty (KERS working/not working, traffic, pit crew errors etc), which would also affect race performance.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Schummy

Perhaps Fastest Laps is what is more debatable this year, it is a sort of indication of late race pace, with few fuel aboard. But for the moment I'll maintain it .

Indeed. It would be very possible for an HRT to do a faster lap time than many other cars, depending upon strategy.

Stats are all very well, but they don't take into account that s**t happens.

Still very...interesting, however.

Schummy · 18 Apr 2011, 15:00 (Ref:2865779)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Marbot

It does, to some extent. But then you have to take into account many other factors too, such as reliabilty (KERS working/not working, traffic, pit crew errors etc), which would also affect race performance.

Indeed. It would be very possible for an HRT to do a faster lap time than many other cars, depending upon strategy.

Stats are all very well, but they don't take into account that s**t happens.

Still very...interesting, however.

The whole picture is, we want to use simple, objective, data to inform about the relative quality of team mates. Along a season, bad and good luck tends to balance things (that's the reason I include a probability measure), so at the end we can with a grade of likelihood assert some conclusions.

Meanwhile, in the middle of a season we can "fore-view" some trends (Rosberg-Schumacher?).

**Adam43** · 18 Apr 2011, 22:05 (Ref:2866106)

Good stuff Schummy. As you know better than the rest of us, as more data becomes available the less freak results matter.
And you are giving us an indicator of confidence too. Oh look, you've already said this:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Schummy

The last column, "Conf" (Confidence), is a statistical indicator of the level of "proof" about if the leading driver in the team is really doing better of it could be just a statistical fluke. When the indicator goes beyong 95% it is almost proven, when it is greater than 99% it is considered proven. Obviously, more data is best, so we will have to wait until we have more GPs to begin reaching at some conclusions.

Thanks for adding the SUT-DIR comparison. It is an interesting line up to track. Both could be stars. Sutil has had his moments in the past and is rated highly by some. Di Resta has started well, lets see if he keeps it up.

Vettel in a Williams · 19 Apr 2011, 00:57 (Ref:2866186)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Adam43

Good stuff Schummy. As you know better than the rest of us, as more data becomes available the less freak results matter.
And you are giving us an indicator of confidence too. Oh look, you've already said this:
Thanks for adding the SUT-DIR comparison. It is an interesting line up to track. Both could be stars. Sutil has had his moments in the past and is rated highly by some. Di Resta has started well, lets see if he keeps it up.

That was me, in my blind patriotism

**chunterer** · 20 Apr 2011, 20:21 (Ref:2867198)

Di Resta is doing a brilliant job of showing his skills and also a brilliant job of making sure Sutil is finally found out!

Therefore a driver I like a lot.

Ralf's Girl · 21 Apr 2011, 08:09 (Ref:2867391)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Schummy

Next time I will perhaps consider Toro Rosso and Force India (particularly this one). The three remaining teams are a bit of a joke (heroic, perhaps, but joke), with theirs cars crawling and throwing bits all over the place. Perhaps the only point is to see who is having a better fading/twilight career, Trulli or Kova. But let's leave the zombies in peace.

That's a bit harsh on Lotus, Kovalainen in particular - he did out-race a Toro Rosso and a Williams in China on merit rather than because of other drivers having problems. And Trulli's fastest lap of the race was faster than Alonso's, so to call them a 'joke' is rather unfair.

The di Resta-Sutil comparison is interesting. Di Resta has made a really good start, especially considering his lack of single seater racing experience in recent years, but I also think that Sutil has always been massively overhyped and made to look better than he really is by sub-standard team-mates, so I'm not that surprised that he's being beaten now that he's got stronger competition.

newlaprecord · 21 Apr 2011, 09:40 (Ref:2867421)

Quote:

Originally Posted by chunterer

Di Resta is doing a brilliant job of showing his skills and also a brilliant job of making sure Sutil is finally found out!

Fisi owned Sutil so it's not like we dont really know what Sutil is made of. But still, Di Resta is awesome. It's a shame he couldnt make it to F1 straight after F3, in the meanwhile its a mirracle itself that DTM didnt ruin his driving. He will have a long career in F1.

Schummy · 9 May 2011, 20:36 (Ref:2877729)

Updating after Turkey.

Code:

TEAM    AUS MAL CHI TUR =  TOT Lead  Conf.
========================================
VET-WEB 101 101 101 101 =  8-4 (VET) 61%   Advantage
HAM-BUT 101 100 011 111 =  8-4 (HAM) 61%   Advantage
ALO-MAS 101 110 100 111 =  8-4 (ALO) 61%   Advantage
ROS-SCH 111 110 111 111 = 11-1 (ROS) 99.4% BUSTED!
HEI-PET 000 101 000 011 =  4-8 (PET) 61%   Advantage
KOB-PER 100 111 001 001 =  6-6 ( = )  0%   Equality
BAR-MAL 011 111 101 101 =  9-3 (BAR) 85%   Danger!
SUT-DIR 011 000 010 111 =  6-6 ( = )  0%   Equality
========================================

As is well known, Rosberg has busted Mike already, so let's forget them!

Maldonado is in danger of being busted by Rubens, not exactly surprising, as RB is not any kind of slow driver, but Maldonado is yet a newbie and he could counterstrike in the future.

Big fights in Sauber's and Force's. Perez is doing a very well job in his first season (and being 21 years old!) against a pretty decent Kobayashi. Di Resta is doing well too although he has a little bit more experience than Perez and he is 25, older than Vettel and about the age of Lewis and Rosberg, so don't get too excited yet

.

In Red Bull, Mac and Ferrari we have the same picture. The "best" driver dominates his team mate, but not conclusively. At this rate (8-4), along the season it will be conclusive but with just 4 GPs it is not yet. Of those, I think Button is the one who can give "troubles". I would not be very surprised if he sums more points than LH in the whole season.

Renault's is also 8-4, but it is a different setup. The theoretically faster driver is being upset for his a priori not-so-brilliant team mate. IMO Petrov (and Perez) is being one of the nice surprises of the season. Probably this is going to be the last hope of Heidfeld to be seen as a remotely front end driver.

Peralta · 9 May 2011, 20:55 (Ref:2877745)

Monaco is where you can tell who the better teammate is assuming no fault of their own.

Schummy · 24 May 2011, 02:57 (Ref:2884898)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peralta

Monaco is where you can tell who the better teammate is assuming no fault of their own.

Monaco is just one circuit, particularly liked by "urban track" specialist and slow corners lovers. It doesn't test so well the skill in others types of corners. Clark never won here, Brabham just once and Fangio twice.

Schummy · 24 May 2011, 03:24 (Ref:2884904)

Updating after Spain.

*** Warning: reading this post can hurt feelings of certain sensitive individuals. Consult your physician. This author is not responsible of any onset of ill mental conditions, high blood pressure, accelerated pulse or bipolar depression caused by the read of this post. Fanboys more than 18 years old are not allowed to enter. ***

Code:

TEAM    AUS MAL CHI TUR SPA =  TOT Lead  Conf.
============================================
VET-WEB 101 101 101 101 011 = 10-5 (VET) 70%   Advantage
HAM-BUT 101 100 011 111 111 = 11-4 (HAM) 88%   Advantage
ALO-MAS 101 110 100 111 111 = 11-4 (ALO) 88%   Advantage
ROS-SCH 111 110 111 111 110 = 13-2  ROS  99.3% BUSTED!
HEI-PET 000 101 000 011 011 =  6-9 (PET) 39%   Almost equality
KOB-PER 100 111 001 001 000 =  6-9 (PER) 39%   Almost equality
BAR-MAL 011 111 101 101 010 = 10-5 (BAR) 70%   Advantage
SUT-DIR 011 000 010 111 010 =  7-8 (DIR)  0%   Equality
============================================

Hamilton and Alonso have increased their domination. However Barrichello has lost a bit of advantage. Vettel goes on adding small pieces to his score, but it is not significant yet.

The rest of team mates sets are pretty equal (except, of course, in Mercedes home!).

Schummy · 30 May 2011, 15:31 (Ref:2888244)

New data after Monaco:

Code:

TEAM    AUS MAL CHI TUR SPA MON =  TOT Lead  Conf.
=================================================
VET-WEB 101 101 101 101 011 101 = 12- 6 (VET) 76%   Advantage
HAM-BUT 101 100 011 111 111 000 = 11- 7 (HAM) 52%   Some advantage
ALO-MAS 101 110 100 111 111 111 = 14- 4 (ALO) 97%   Almost busted!
ROS-SCH 111 110 111 111 110 011 = 15- 3  ROS  99.2% BUSTED!
HEI-PET 000 101 000 011 011 011 =  8-10 (PET) 19%   Almost equality
KOB-PER 100 111 001 001 000 11-*=  8- 9 (PER)  0%   Equality
BAR-MAL 011 111 101 101 010 011 = 12- 6 (BAR) 76%   Advantage
SUT-DIR 011 000 010 111 010 001 =  8-10 (DIR) 19%   Almost equality
=================================================
(*) Perez didn't start the race

Hamilton had his racis horribilis and Button beat him in the three sides, anyway Lewis goes on with some advantage.

Third GP in a row where FA smashes 3-0 to Massa. Now Alonso is almost "busting" the Brazilian, who looks more and more as a shadow of the former great driver he was.

Also the third GP in a row with Heidfeld beating Petrov (with some bad luck) 2-1, but anyway the Russian keeps a marginal advantage. Equally, Koby over performed 2-0 his unfortunate team mate. Before his crash in Q3, Perez was clearly beating Kobayashi in qualifying.

Barrichello is above Maldonado just by his race results, but the later is scoring 3-3 in qualifying. In Force India the close fight continues, Di Resta is better in qualifying, Sutil has better fast laps.

Vettel is not so ahead of Webber as one could think. The reason is Webber is scoring 5-1 in fastest laps!. This season fastest race laps are being rather meaningless, because of fuel load and tyres combinations. Sometimes we get bizarre fastest laps because of circumstances, for instance a lesser driver put soft tyres in the last laps, making a "fake" fast time with drops of fuel aboard. Monaco has been an example of it: after changing tyres because of the red flag, people began to put a string of very fast times.

Making a bit of forecasting, it seems clear that Alonso will "bust" Massa. Probably Vettel will do the same with Webber. I'm not totally convinced about Mac and Williams. In Mac's case because Button is a resilient driver, with many weapons in race days; in Williams's, Maldonado is still developing, so the future is less clear.

The rest of those teams are more equal. I tend to think Petrov will beat Heidfeld and Perez perhaps can do the same with the not-precisely-slow KK. About Force India, I cannot figure anything yet.

nobster · 30 May 2011, 19:15 (Ref:2888353)

At Williams the pendulum is slowly swinging in Maldonado's way, the last two races I thought he was better at Barcelona and way better at Monaco.

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