Moto GP 2012, Round 13 - Misano

[Dani Filth]

Friday washout
Saturday Quali dry
Warm-Up dry
Rossi in 6th
Pedrosa vs Lorenzo
Another Podium for Cal?

[formerf1champ]

How quickly things change, hey Mr Pedrosa?

Well, what do you know? Hayden didn't get involved in a crash in the first two corners!

[gomick]

Moto 3 was a great race & that last lap between Marquez & Espargaro was awesome... MotoGP - fell asleep & missed the start. Good to see Rossi on the podium

[Schummy]

Now the three titles look fairly decided. I have done some calculations to estimate the amount of work needed to rob the title from Lorenzo, Marquez and Cortese's hands.

The calculations are based in two statistical principles; variance of additions and bootstrapping. I think they are reasonable estimations of the probability of getting the title (approximations, anyway).

The most open title is MotoGP,but even so, Lorenzo has around 94-95% of getting it, if things go as now (if Honda develop a secret rocket-bike, it would be different , if Jorge becomes depressed because his cat dies, it would be also different ). So, Pedro-san has a scarce 5-6% of getting the title by mean of a combo of results compatible with the rest of the season.

The most safe title is Cortese's. Calculations shows a negligible probability for Vinales (less than 1%). So, for me, Cortese is champion with more than 99% of certainty. Mr. Ippolito, President of FIM, could give him the Cup already

Marquez is also pretty near of his title. His probabilities are 98-99% against 1-2% for Espargaro.

Anyway, let's remember than a small probability is not the same as "impossible" and sometimes freak circumstances happen. For example, the title for Kimi Raikkonen was extremely unlikely just before the last races, and though, I happened.

The joint probability of Lorenzo, Marquez and Cortese getting the three titles is approx 93%. The probability of neither of them getting the title is less than 1/200000 , counting every possible combination of results compatible with the season's history.

[gomick]

Be disappointing if Cortese won... Imagine Vinales, Marquez & Lorenzo being the champs

[Schummy]

And Carmelo Ezpeleta giving the trophies, he he he.

[W.A Trichlorostyrene]

Originally Posted by Schummy

(if Honda develop a secret rocket-bike, it would be different

I don't think so... Right now it's Lorenzo's to lose rather than Honda's to win.

Lorenzo can finish each of the last five races 2nd, even if Pedroza wins them all, Lorenzo gets the title by 13 points.

Apart from Assen, Lorenzo finished each race 2nd so far...

...and sadly for HRC, their own current second rider, Johnny Rea, can't realistically aim for taking points away from Lorenzo right now.


On the other hand, I don't know if I agree with the 98-99% type figures for Moto2/3. Sure Marquez and Cortese are well ahead of the opposition, but the racing is so tough and cut-throat out there, it's not that hard to get 2 or 3 non-scores in 5 races if you're unlucky! Ask Marquez.

Granted, on the psychological aspect of the game, Marquez and Cortese seem to be pretty much ahead of their respective opponents. And this matters quite a lot at the end of title fights.

[Schummy]

Wrong about Honda rocket :-)

If Honda were to make a rocket, Honda would get 1st and 2nd (even 3rd...). That was the point of unlikeliness of my hypothesis. To make Pedrosa win every race he needs a bit if luck and a better bike, not a rocket. Dani is not much slower than Jorge, lap wise.

[jhansen]

Up until this point, I thought Pedrosa was actually riding quite well. Perhaps the best we've seen of him in the premier class. But it would seem he was a bit over zealous in his charge through the pack. A 2nd or 3rd would have kept him in the chase. Zero points was not what he needed. Would have loved to see Puig's face...

[EGG]

Actually I hadn't thought about the championship with regards to Rea getting the HRC ride. I thought he did pretty well to not bin it and bring in an acceptable place first time out, but realistically he's not going to be taking points off of Lorenzo.

Any takers for other options they could have put on the bike who could be in the position to grab points over the next couple of rounds? (Bayliss and lots of coffee?)

Parrish or Harris or someone was mentioning something about works parts making their way into Bradl's garage.

[gomick]

Bradl should've got the works bike as soon as Stoner was out...

[Schummy]

Yes, the only realistic choice is going to be Bradl ... or Bautista :-) IMO . But I doubt they would stop Lorenzo for a second position. At least they could do Lorenzo work a bit harder than in Misano, where he was strolling peacefully. Any remote chance for Pedrosa involves Lorenzo having a problem.The key word is "remote".

[chunder]

No chance, Jorge has looked odds on since the end of winter testing when Honda realised they couldnt just blast past everything down the straight and Jorge was in good nick!

Handling usually wins titles, ask Rainey, Roberts, Lawson, Doohan Rossi and a few others.

Very rare anything else wins a title, Stoner on the Duke with a combination of speed, riding and clever rule reading, Hayden on the Honda through consistency and bloodymindedness, Lawson on the NSR through sheer hard work and Kanemoto knowhow, Gardner through power, Roberts Jr through total genius at getting the most from what he had.

Most of the rest are a result of being on th best bike, and right now the Yamaha is the best bike, proof of that is shown from the Tech 3 results, the private Hondas are nowhere near the front usually, and beaten by the private Yamahas.

Thats the prrof that the Yam is the best bike, unless your name is Spies and you cant ride it!

[Schummy]

I think private Yams - Hondies comparison can be tainted because Dovi is probably the best of them. The unknown quantity is Cruchtlow. He is doing an erratic and eventually great season, is he or his Yam?

Definitively Ben is bordering the disaster.

Rossi's second place puzzles me. If it is Vale being "motivated", then it is a scandal about his professionality; if it is the new spec bike, then we will see in next rounds.

[jhansen]

A few things about Rossi's 2nd place. First, Ducati tested at Misano a few weeks prior to the race weekend in sunny conditions. They already had the dry setup they needed while everyone else went in blind and got next to no dry running. Second, with Pedrosa's start-line madness and Stoner out, Rossi had less competition for that spot.

[Schummy]

Originally Posted by jhansen

A few things about Rossi's 2nd place. First, Ducati tested at Misano a few weeks prior to the race weekend in sunny conditions. They already had the dry setup they needed while everyone else went in blind and got next to no dry running. Second, with Pedrosa's start-line madness and Stoner out, Rossi had less competition for that spot.

I think those two points are unlikey, specially the second one.

Let's suppose Stoner and Pedrosa had run normally, then VR had been 4th. Rossi's classifications so far (including the three aliens when necessary):

10 9 7 2w 7 9 13 7s 6s - 7 7 4

2w was the wet race at Le Mans, 7s was when Sachs's Stoner crash and 6s was when when Stoner ran badly injured in Mugello. Curiously, the second best dry classification was also in Italy (perhaps "motivated" as well?). Apparently Vale was only interested enough to fight when in the home country.

Vale was always pretty far of a theoretical 4th position along the season.

About the first argument, it is certainly arguable, but I suspect about it because of the following data:

SMA2012 vs SMA2011 races: Dovi 1'35" faster, Winner 1'22" faster
CZE2012 vs CZE2011 races: Dovi 13" faster, Winner 26" faster
USA2012 vs USA2011 races: Dovi 8" faster, Winner 6" faster

Brno is a bit faster than Misano and Laguna is a bit slower, so I think they are a good recent comparator. I dropped indy because of the apparent difficulties with track/tyres and the crashes along the sesions.

Thus SMA was a fast race in comparison with 2011, a lot faster than Brno and Laguna, respecting Dovi (a natural enemy for Vale these seasons) and the winner. Perhaps Misano was a lot faster this year? Apparently not, because Moto2 times were equal or worse than last year:

Moto2 2012: Pole 1'38"2 FL 1'38"5
Moto2 2011: Pole 1'37"8 FL 1'38"6

So I don't think MotoGP riders were handicapped by bad dry setups, they did a fast race. Interestingly Rossi was not good in Warm Up lap times, but he "found" half a second in race. The rest of the field was not so lucky (except Bautista, to be fair).

So I only see two possibilities:
1) Ducati has done a sizable step forward. It is a fair conclusion.
2) Rossi has rode sub professionally along the season, except in the wet race and in Italy.

I tend to support the second theory because I cannot believe than Vale only can beat 7-5 to Hayden (4-5 without LeMans and italian races) or fighting for positions in some races with private Barbera. I think Rossi, consciously or unconsciously, has been a bad professional this season.

Anyway, I would be very interested in Ducati really doing a step in performance because I like this maker and it would be an interesting prospect for next season.

[Schummy]

Doing 10000 simulations, according to past results in the season, Lorenzo has a 99.3% of getting the title, and Pedrosa just 0.7%.

So, or things change radically in Honda (i.e. a miracle) or Pedrosa is basically toast. Maybe it's a pity because perhaps he will not have another chance to be WC in MotoGP (and I know he is better than Hayden, for example). If you are not the absolutely best, sometimes a little luck can make you a decent WC, but it looks this is not going to be the year for Dani.

[Jimmy Magnusson]

Originally Posted by Schummy

Doing 10000 simulations, according to past results in the season, Lorenzo has a 99.3% of getting the title, and Pedrosa just 0.7%.

So, or things change radically in Honda (i.e. a miracle) or Pedrosa is basically toast. Maybe it's a pity because perhaps he will not have another chance to be WC in MotoGP (and I know he is better than Hayden, for example). If you are not the absolutely best, sometimes a little luck can make you a decent WC, but it looks this is not going to be the year for Dani.

Won't be 0,7% if Bautista has another first corner lunge again

[Schummy]

Lol, it is right!

Lady Luck has the final word. Anyway, "bootstraping" simulations tends to be conservative, so even without "Deux ex machina" Bautista, probably Dani looks a bit better than those numbers show.

(What if Bautista crashes "into" Pedrosa? lol)