The Nextel Cup Champion will be....

[Joe Fan]

One of these three drivers:

1) Kurt Busch
2) Dale Earnhardt Jr
3) Jeff Gordon

But I know what you are thinking, "Joe Fan, these are the three top drivers in the points right now. You are really going out on a limb aren't you?"

Well, I did some calculating and how all the Nextel Cup eligible drivers fared at the remaining tracks the past two seasons and these three drivers seem to have the best shot at the Cup based upon their previous performances. Jimmie Johnson would have a shot if he had 50-100 more points than he does currently because Jimmie was awesome down the stretch last season (scored 1030 points in the final six races).

Kurt Busch will be the champion if he runs like he did towards the end of the 2002 season (scored 1007 points in the final six races). If Busch runs like he did towards the end of the 2003 season, the championship will be a fight between Jeff Gordon and Dale Earnhardt Jr., with Jeff Gordon having the slight advantage. Jr doesn't run real strong at Homestead and his fall Rockingham finishes haven't been that great the past two seasons.

So, unless we see some unexpected things, pick your poison: Kurt Busch or Jeff Gordon.

[luke]

Dale Earnhardt Jr although I would like Kurt Busch to win.

[muggle not]

Jeff Gordon, talent and experience will prevail.

[kingfloopy]

It's tough to call who will win the championship. Kurt Busch has been running the best of all the drivers so far and he has a lot of talent. Jeff Gordon also has a lot of talent and has ran well, but the Hendrick motor durability have been iffy at times this season. Dale Jr. is probally the driver who wants the champiohship the most, but he has a lot of weaknesses at some of the tracks coming up. I'd say Kurt Busch probally looks the best, but I wouldn't count the other two out yet.

J.D.

[Jack Man]

Ya it looks like Kurts in the drivers seat at the moment. Hope he can do it and bring Jack another championship. JJ was my original pick but damm hes havin a run of bad luck.

[Joe Fan]

I really thought Dale Earnhardt Jr was going to win Kansas this past weekend because it was his birthday and for the simple fact that he had to be extra motivated after he had points taken away for using the S word. Had he won it, that would have given him 42 more points, a 13 point lead over Busch and a 92 point lead over Jeff Gordon. That might have given him enough cushion to stave off Gordon and Busch. But now, my pre-season prediction of Jr winning the Cup doesn't look as promising.

A crash or blown engine by either one will change things but Hendrick rarely has engine problems and we have passed the venues like Talladega where a driver can lose a significant amount of points by being caught up in someone else's mess. I think Jr will have a have a 50 point lead going into Homestead to win the Cup because he doesn't run very well at Homestead.

[Joe Fan]

I did some more calculating. If the drivers score the same amount of points they did last year in the remaining four races, the championship final results look like this:

Busch 6499
Gordon 6498
Johnson 6498
Earnhardt 6440

Kurt Busch did himself huge favors by good finishes at Charlotte and Martinsville since these were two races he didn't do well at last year. Busch and Gordon had bad or so-so finishes last year in one of the remaining races (Busch at Homestead 55 pts, Gordon at Rockingham 97 pts). I expect both to do better this year so the championship appears to be between Busch and Gordon.

[gttouring]

yup Busch and gordon
i'd put the money on the hendrick team but with news of the Hendrick jet "missing" from the FAA how will it impact the teams?

[kingfloopy]

I'd still put my money on Busch. That guy can run well anywhere. But with the tragic news today I think that the Hendrick teams will try their hardest to win the championship for the friends and family that they lost and a little determination can go a long way.

J.D.

[24thunder]

Originally posted by muggle not
Jeff Gordon, talent and experience will prevail.

agreed.

[muggle not]

I believe that the tragic accident may really have an impact on the c4c. It has to disrupt their concentration.

[Jack Man]

I agree Muggle Not i'm sure alot of soul searching is going on this week. I was just wondering how this will effect the teams performance, Randy Dorton was magic in the engine room. I'm sure the teams are set for this year but performance down the road will be uncertain.

[Joe Fan]

Well, it looks like next week it going to be a real interesting race. Five drivers have a chance to win the championship but really it appears to be a fight between three drivers: Kurt Busch (leading), Jimmie Johnson (-18 points back) and Jeff Gordon (-21 points back).

Dale Earnhardt Jr (-72 points back) and Mark Martin (-82 points back) only have a shot if all the three drivers above have problems. Jr would have to win the race and lead all the laps and hope that Busch, Gordon and Johnson finish 17th or worse and not lead any laps. That is not likely to happen unless there is a big crash that they are all involved in.

Anyway, I can't wait for next weekend.

[gttouring]

well last 30 laps of the race and sweat is pouring out form everyone
Gordon has to better busch- or rather one position to gain 6 points to clsoe the 4 point gap for good-man after 36 races, this is tight.

[gttouring]

what madness, all the shuffling of places and this is on the edge of a razor and so delicately balanced.
this is crazy

[Adam43]

It is so close.

Quite exciting and I'm just watching it on the web!