2020 Silly Season

[Richard C]

So I have started to see news reports and some discussions in various threads here about 2020 from the perspective of the drivers market and even what power units various teams might use. So I figured... why not kick off this 2020 thread.

Some specific topics that I have seen recently...

* Williams switching to Renault and McLaren switching to Mercedes (probably not likely)
* Max Verstappen's RBR escape clause and his potential move to Mercedes (I assume to replace Bottas?)
* Some talk about Vettel retiring at end of 2019 or more recently... moving back to RBR!!
* Supposed break in relationship between Alonso and McLaren (which both have denied) and now there is talk of Alonso going to RBR!

https://www.gpblog.com/en/news/41036...2020-seat.html

Would Honda be OK with Alonso back in a Honda powered car? I believe it was said that Honda stopped Alonso from using Honda power at Indy this year. Do they even have a say in the matter when it comes to RBR driver selection?

Richard

[chavez]

Ex-Lotus CEO, Matthew Carter has Ocon locked in for Mercedes or so he says on the most recent Missed Apex podcast.

[steve nielsen]

Originally Posted by Richard Casto

Would Honda be OK with Alonso back in a Honda powered car? I believe it was said that Honda stopped Alonso from using Honda power at Indy this year. Do they even have a say in the matter when it comes to RBR driver selection?

Richard

Marko also said they don't want Alonso and Honda wouldn't want it anyway.

also: it was Alonso that contacted Red Bull, not Red Bull that contacted Alonso

[BertMk2]

McLaren have confirmed Norris and Sainz for 2020.

There has been talk of Ocon being released from his Mercedes contract so he can find a drive elsewhere (the Mercedes link potentially stopped him getting a drive for this year). Interestingly Ocon is being linked with Renault - with either Hulkenberg being ditched or Ricciardo leaving depending on which story you read. The Ricciardo move apparently would be to Ferrari if Vettel retires at the end of the year - so judge for yourself how likely you think that one is!

Williams have extended their sponsorship deal with Rokit - so at least some good news for Williams!

[Taxi645]

2020
(part wishing part expecting)


Mercedes
- Hamilton
- Bottas


Ferrari
- Leclerc
- Ricciardo


Red Bull
- Verstappen
- Gasly



McLaren
- Sainz
- Norris




Renault
- Ocon
- Hulkenberg





Sauber
- Raikkonen
- Giovinazzi




Racing Point
- Perez
- Stroll




Haas:
- Magnussen
- ?, Vergne?





Torro Rosso
- Kvyat
- Albon




Williams:
- Russell
- de Vries






For 2021 I could imagine Norris going to Mercedes if he keeps improving.

[steve_r]

Everything hinges on Vettel. If Vettel does next season in Ferrari, then I can see no moves in the top 3 teams.

If Vettel quits, then Ferrari might have to get their cheque book out, and entice Ricciardo. But why should they not aim for Verstappen instead?

Do we think that Alonso definitely will not come back to F1? It's hard to see a space for him at anything better than a midfield team, which I guess is the main reason to doubt that he will get a driver next year. How about at Renault instead of Hulk'? That might work?

If I were running Haas, I would definitely be looking for 1 or possibly even 2 new drivers next season. Ocon? Perez? Hulkenburg?

[Taxi645]

Originally Posted by steve_r

Everything hinges on Vettel. If Vettel does next season in Ferrari, then I can see no moves in the top 3 teams.

If Vettel quits, then Ferrari might have to get their cheque book out, and entice Ricciardo. But why should they not aim for Verstappen instead?

They can aim for Verstappen, but I reckon they won't get him.

1 Ferrari is probably not better than RB 2020.
2 He can't claim No1 status as Leclerc is too good.

If Verstappen is moving, it would be to Mercedes, but I'm quite sure he will give Red Bull/Honda 2020 to proof that they can really be there from the start of the season.

Originally Posted by steve_r

Do we think that Alonso definitely will not come back to F1? It's hard to see a space for him at anything better than a midfield team, which I guess is the main reason to doubt that he will get a driver next year. How about at Renault instead of Hulk'? That might work?

If I were running Haas, I would definitely be looking for 1 or possibly even 2 new drivers next season. Ocon? Perez? Hulkenburg?

If Alonso would be up for it, Haas would take him I guess (if he doesn't demand an outrages salary that is).

[S griffin]

We only have Norris and Sainz confirmed. Who goes where elsewhere in 2020 is anybody’s guess. Vettel has a big question mark, which I think will be key. As will what Bottas does

[chillibowl]

Originally Posted by steve_r

If Vettel quits, then Ferrari might have to get their cheque book out, and entice Ricciardo....

i could see SV walking away from the sport all together...he doesnt need the aggravation and media attention that comes with driving a Ferrari poorly.

if he does walk, then i could see something like Ric to Ferrari, Alonso to Renault, and Max and Gasly staying at RB.

[BertMk2]

Haas must surely ditch Grosjean, they've got Fittipaldi who they could plug in as a replacement. Magnussen you'd have thought would get another year.

Basically if Vettel quits then there could be a huge upheaval - otherwise it's another year of tinkering around the edges isn't it? The 'available' seats are probably:

1 Haas (Grosjean out - Fittipaldi in?)
1 Williams (Kubica out)

[S griffin]

Hasn’t Ticktum been dumped by Red Bull though? I don’t think his future prospects look good, especially as he lost his Super Formula seat

[chillibowl]

Originally Posted by BertMk2

Haas must surely ditch Grosjean, they've got Fittipaldi who they could plug in as a replacement. Magnussen you'd have thought would get another year.

Grosjean makes a lot of errors for sure but i think both may need to go imo.

circumstances also play a part, not necessarily their own fault, but this is a team that desperately needs to change the narrative surrounding it...replacing RG with immediate effect might do the trick (but then i suppose they would be the one breaking a contract).

also, it is hard to tell as a spectator, but does Mags have a bad attitude, not a team player, or something?

[BertMk2]

Originally Posted by S griffin

Hasn’t Ticktum been dumped by Red Bull though? I don’t think his future prospects look good, especially as he lost his Super Formula seat

Yep - saw that just after I posted - I did edit before I saw your reply

Seems it all went wrong for Ticktum - he was short on superlicence points otherwise it would most likely be him and not Albon in the Torro Rosso this year.

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by S griffin

We only have Norris and Sainz confirmed. Who goes where elsewhere in 2020 is anybody’s guess. Vettel has a big question mark, which I think will be key. As will what Bottas does

Mercedes were quite public when Hamilton signed an extension.

Lewis Hamilton: Mercedes driver agrees £40m-a-year deal until 2020

What constitutes a confirmation of entry?
Drivers with a contract in place for 2020 are:

Alfa Romeo Racing-Kimi Räikkönen
Ferrari-Sebastian Vettel
Ferrari-Charles Leclerc
Haas-Kevin Magnussen
McLaren-Lando Norris
McLaren-Carlos Sainz Jr.
Mercedes-Lewis Hamilton
Red Bull Racing-Max Verstappen
Renault-Daniel Ricciardo
Williams-George Russell

The official F1 Site: DRIVER MARKET: How is the 2020 grid shaping up?

[Taxi645]

Originally Posted by chillibowl

i could see SV walking away from the sport all together...he doesnt need the aggravation and media attention that comes with driving a Ferrari poorly.

Nor of lingering on in a lesser team. I don't think he has the same feel for F1 as Raikkonen.


On Bottas at Mercedes. Mercedes can talk all they want about Bottas his form. However as long as Hamilton is around they are perfectly happy with a driver like Bottas. What is more to want, he does bring in a decent load of points, yet doesn't risk Lewis' championship nor does he take unnecessary risks with both cars on track. In my eyes it's all bullshit.

[S griffin]

I think Vettel doesn’t really feel he needs to achieve much more in the sport. He’s got his four titles after all

[VIVA GT]

Good old Eddie Jordan was back on Channel 4 for the Grand Prix this weekend. His prediction (albeit for 2021) was Vettel & Verstappen at Mercedes & Hamilton to Ferrari ('to finish his Formula 1 career')!

[gert]

Originally Posted by S griffin

Vettel has a big question mark, which I think will be key. As will what Bottas does

I think those 2 are indeed key, but for Bottas: it doesn't depend on what Bottas does, is depends on what Mercedes decides.


I can't see Verstappen go to Ferrari. Staying at Red Bull for 2020 is no worse option, and he can still see what happens for 2021. I think he targets Hamilton's seat (for 2021 or beyond)

I understand why EJ said Hamilton would go to Ferrari in that case. Verstappen-Hamilton just won't work (*), and the chance of winning in a Ferrari is something only few can resist.

(*) I didn't think EJ meant that Hamilton would be afraid of Verstappen, just that it would not work. Think Hamilton-Rosberg, just maybe worse.


On the other hand, I can't see Verstappen-Vettel at Mercedes either. Mercedes has not need for Vettel, unless he dramatically improves in 2020, in which case he has no need to leave Ferrari and they have no need to let him go.
If Mercedes needs someone to partner Verstappen, I think they would go for Ocon or Russell anyway. Why raise young drivers if you're not going to use them?


Ricciardo to Ferrari? Maybe. If Vettel leaves or has to leave, what choice do they have? Verstappen won't do it I think and will probably be too expensive anyway (especially if they have to buy out Vettel's contract). They have a few youngsters but none of them are ready or have enough SuperLicense points.
That leaves Ricciardo, Alonso, Bottas (?) (but why take him if he is dropped by Mercedes)

[chunterer]

Hamilton will never be a Ferrari signing, his driving style is their cup of tea but his out of the car stuff certainly isn't.

I've heard on the vine that Grosjean is definitely out, KMag is staying.

Seems to me Gasly has to keep up his Silverstone form for the rest of the year or he's out. If Albon keeps improving, he might get the gig.

Whilst i'd love to see Alonso back, Renault would be wise to keep the current line up unless they are absolutely sure they can sign someone who is guaranteed to do better than Hulk. Don't think there's very many who could that would be either available or affordable.

If Vettel does the right thing and puts his career out of its misery, Ferrari may need to put someone like Hulk in as a 1-2 year stop gap until they can get who they want.

[Taxi645]

I made a list of Vettel mishap in wheel to wheel through the last few seasons:


June 2017 Bakuh (Vettel Hamilton incident)
Sept 2017 Singapore (Vettel, Verstappen, Raikkonen incident)
Oct 2017 Mexico (Verstappen vs Vettel, drives his front wing off at T2)

Jun 2018 France (Hits Bottas at T1)
Jul 2018 Germany (goes off in the wet)
Sept 2018 Monza (spun after contact with Hamilton)
Oct 2018 Japan (drives into Verstappen who’s ahead)
Oct 2018 COTA (runs into Ricciardo who’s ahead)

Mar 2019 Bahrein (goes on the throttle too early in fight with Hamilton)
Jun 2019 (misses braking point, cut’s chicane and gets penalty)
Juli 2019 Silverstone (Rams Verstappen off the track)




I'm not sure how he's gonna turn it around. What would change? As others have said, I like the guy off the track. However it's reaching a point that same input will give the same output.

[S griffin]

It seems people will remember him more for the mistakes in later years than his four world titles at this rate. It seems he doesn't have the mental approach to turn things around

[Formulahistory]

Mercedes: Hamilton - Bottas
Ferrari: Vettel - Leclerc
Red Bull: Verstappen - Kvyat
McLaren: Sainz - Norris
Renault: Ricciardo - Ocon
Alfa Romeo: Räikkönen - Giovinazzi
Racing Point: Pérez - Stroll
Toro Rosso: Albon - Gasly

Haas: Magnussen - Hülkenberg
Williams: Russell - Latifi

[S griffin]

Originally Posted by Formulahistory

Mercedes: Hamilton - Bottas
Ferrari: Vettel - Leclerc
Red Bull: Verstappen - Kvyat
McLaren: Sainz - Norris
Renault: Ricciardo - Ocon
Alfa Romeo: Räikkönen - Giovinazzi
Racing Point: Pérez - Stroll
Toro Rosso: Albon - Gasly

Haas: Magnussen - Hülkenberg
Williams: Russell - Latifi

Notice only one rookie, like it was at the start of 2009

[Aysedasi]

Originally Posted by Formulahistory

Mercedes: Hamilton - Bottas
Ferrari: Vettel - Leclerc
Red Bull: Verstappen - Kvyat
McLaren: Sainz - Norris
Renault: Ricciardo - Ocon
Alfa Romeo: Räikkönen - Giovinazzi
Racing Point: Pérez - Stroll
Toro Rosso: Albon - Gasly

Haas: Magnussen - Hülkenberg
Williams: Russell - Latifi

Can we seriously see Kvyat being re-promoted to Red Bull? Surely not......??? If I had no choice outside what I already have, I'd keep Gasly.

Russell seriously needs to find himself another berth before his career is completely killed off before it's really started.

[broadrun96]

Originally Posted by Aysedasi

Can we seriously see Kvyat being re-promoted to Red Bull? Surely not......??? If I had no choice outside what I already have, I'd keep Gasly.

Russell seriously needs to find himself another berth before his career is completely killed off before it's really started.

I agree with both there and would add who could someone sign Ocon at this point? Renault backed out to put Ricciardo in the seat and Wolff and Abiteboul have had a word joust about being gentleman and backing out of the deal. But just today I've seen reports of him in Haas before the end of the season and in the Renault or Mercedes for 2020 so apparently everyone wants him.

Promoting Kvyat would mean you have to release Gasly, you can't demote him and expect a result with the history Red Bull has had. And it's not like Dany is tearing up the racing scene and at the front of the mid-pack. Gasly has had his moments and 55 points compared to 12 points to Kvyat, neither have any podium appearances but that's a wide margin of points.

Russell I think has the challenge of being MB affiliated and being behind Ocon who they can't manage to find a seat in the field. He's stuck until Lewis, or Bottas even, decides he's done racing I think. They have the old Red Bull problem and one Marko wishes he still had, too many drivers and not enough seats.