MotoGP/Moto2/Moto3: 2020 posible champions

[Schummy]

I know some of the following numbers are pretty boring but I hope the first part is a little bit informative.

Just trying to add a bit of calculations for this rather anomalous season. I have calculated One Race Gaps for riders in the three categories. ORG is the points gap between a rider and the leader of the category if there was just only one race to go, calculated to be equivalent to the current real gap (with 12 races to go, after the 2nd Jerez race).

So, Vinales's 10 gap with Quartararo would be equivalent to a 2.9 gap if they had only one race remaining in the season. Obviously, it means it is still a very open fight between VIN and QUA for the leadership in the final standings. The details of the ORG calculations are probably not very interesting but, anyway, they are somewhere in the F1 forum.

The tables show three numbers: real current points gap, One Race Gap and an approximate probability of that gap to be overcome. I like to call "difficult" when ORG > 10 (probability < 10%) and "(very) unlikely" if ORG i> 25 (probability < 1%).

MotoGP
QUA   50  
VIN  -10  2.9  32%
DOV  -24  6.9  17%
NAK  -31  8.9  12%
PESP -31  8.9  12%
ROS  -34  9.8  11%
MIL  -37 10.7   9%
...
MMAR -50 14.4   5%

Moto2
NAG  50
BAS  -2  0.6  46%
MARI -5  1.4  40%
CAN -20  5.8  20%
BAL -22  6.4  18%
MART-24  6.9  17%
LOW -24  6.9  17%
GAR -28  8.1  14%
VIE -29  8.4  13%
BEZ -30  8.7  13%
Other        <10%

Moto3
ARE  50
SUZ  -6  1.7  38%
MCP -10  2.9  32%
OGU -14  4.0  27%
ROD -20  5.8  20%
VIE -23  6.6  18%
FER -24  6.9  17%
ARB -27  7.8  15%
MAS -31  8.9  12%
ALC -31  8.9  12%
Other        <10%

Some thoughts that those numbers bring to my mind:

- MMarquez has a pretty difficult task to reach Quartararo. It is not difficult even to catch Vinales. But obviously it is a calculation done with the scarce info we have at the beginning of the season.

- Every rider except 5 have already difficult to overcome Quartararo. That is, there are only 6 reasonable title contenders... and the very special case of MMarquez!

- In Moto2 and Moto3 the season is still very open in realistic contenders. Of course, this is expected in the first races of the season LOL

=========================================

About MAR-QUA, let's think it in a very simplistic way, just for entertaining(?) purpose. Let's suppose they were to end 1st/2nd in every remaining race. MAR needs to recover 50 points, it means 10 races winning with QUA in 2nd position. In turn, it means MAR needs to win 11-1, or better, against QUA in the remaining 12 races. It looks, at first sight, very hard to achieve in the perceived current state of things.

How improbable is it? Let's use the binomial calculation of probabilities
Let's imagine MAR had some kind of advantage against QUA given by the probability p of winning against him. For example, p = 50% means they are approximately equal but p = 90% would mean MAR would win against QUA approximately 90% of times. The next table calculate the probability of MAR doing a 11-1 or 12-0 against QUA in the next 12 races , depending on his advantage in performance against QUA:

50%   0.3%
55%   0.8%
60%   2.0%
65%   4.2%
70%   8.5%
75%  15.8%
80%  27.5%
85%  44.3%
90%  65.9%

If MAR and QUA are approximately equal in race performance then it is near impossible for MAR to catch QUA.
MAR needs to have an advantage of at least 2 to 1 against QUA to have a reasonable chance.
Finally, MAR needs to have an advantage of approx more than 85% to expect him to overtake QUA. That advantage would be 17 to 3 against the Frenchman.

So, in my view it is not so difficult for MAR to fight against QUA for the title. But it needs that MAR/Honda has a certain advantage against QUA/Yamaha. If it is not the case than the season is practically over for MAR. I don't think MAR will have a big advantage against QUA (or if he will have any advantage at all), so I still see QUA with a clear advantage.

Some can argue that the 50 points gap will vanish with just two DNFs by QUA. Two thoughts on that:
- It is not so easy to have two DNFs by QUA and no one by MAR.
- More importantly, those calculations are done in the simplistic scenario of those two getting 1st/2nd in each race. It is just a basic calculation, not a complete scenario.

Of course, I am deliberately "forgetting" Vinales and others for the title chase... . I was not supposed in any way to do an exhaustive view about the championship!

[Schummy]

After GP Austria things have evolved very differently in each category. In Moto3 Arenas has reinforced his leadership and now he is clearly the rider in all the championships with a greater chance of title. Meanwhile, in MotoGP and Moto2, the respective leaders had a bad (even nightmarish) day and now bets for the title are closer.

In the following tables, the first percentage is the estimated probability of surpassing the leader's score in the remaining season. The second one is the approximated probability of getting the title.

MotoGP
QUA   67             49%  
DOV  -11  3.48  29%  17%  
VIN  -19  6.01  20%   9%  
BIN  -26  8.22  14%   5%  
ROS  -29  9.17  12%   4%  
NAK  -30  9.49  11%   3%  
MIL  -31  9.80  11%   3%  
MOR  -36 11.38   8%   2%  
MIR  -36 11.38   8%   2%  
ZAR  -39 12.33   7%   1.7%
...
MMAR -52 16.44   4%   0.6%

Moto2 
MARI  78             44%  
BAS   -5  1.58  39%  27%  
MART -19  6.01  20%   7%  
LOW  -19  6.01  20%   7%  
NAG  -23  7.27  16%   5%  
CAN  -35 11.07   9%   1.9%
BEZ  -38 12.02   8%   1.5%
VIE  -42 13.28   6%   1.1%

Moto3
ARE  95             73%   
MCP -28  8.85  12%   8%   
OGU -30  9.49  11%   7%   
SUZ -45 14.23   5%   3%   
FER -52 16.44   4%   1.6% 
VIE -54 17.08   3%   1.4% 
ARB -55 17.39   3%   1.3%

In short:

Change of leadership in Moto2, Marini surges as new favorite and with some strength.

Arenas's leadership is above one race max score (25 points).

"Probably" the title will go to one of this riders:
("Probably" means here that ts is more probable that it happens than that it doesn't happens)

Moto3: Arenas
Moto2: Marini, Bastianini
MotoGP: Quartararo... and Dovi just enters in this part.

Riders with a reasonable probability for the title:
(It means that all of them together covers more than 90% of prob for the title)

Moto3: McPhee, Ogura and even Suzuki
Moto2: Martin, Lowes, Naga
MotoGP: Vinales, Binder, Rossi, Miller

Notable riders like Arbolino, Masia, Raul Fernandez, Bezzecchi, Navarro, Luthi... are already practically without chances.

Surprisingly, this season the unpredictability for the title in each category follows a reversed pattern in comparison with the normal pattern: MotoGP is the "craziest" and Moto3 is the most stable.

Finally, a list with the riders with the greatest (approximated) probabilities to get the title this season:

Arenas 73%
Quartararo 49%
Marini 44%
Bastianini 27%
Dovizioso 17%
Vinales 9%
McPhee 8%
Martin 7%
Lowes 7%
Ogura 7%

Now Spielberg 2nd race weekend is just starting. Will Arenas get half a hand in the title? Will Quartararo retake the domination path ... before the comeback of The Thing? Will Moto2 be centered exclusively between Marini and Bastianini?

[justracing]

Wow, that's some complex summary, what's the news on "The Thing" returning?

[Schummy]

LOL the summary was longer than the main text!

What I heard is Thingy coming back in Misano, the next GP in the calendar. So, this Spielberg 2nd race is important mainly for Quartararo. But, frankly, with just 9 races to go, it looks extremely difficult even for the only alien remaining. It could be possible only if the rest continues to self-destroy and shoot down each other, even literally.

Methinks...

[Schummy]

With only three races to go, the panorama of possible champions is clearer. Just to put numbers to it, I did some simulations to reproduce possible scores in those three races and who would be champion in each scenario.

The resulting estimated probabilities to be champion are as follows:

Moto3:
AREN 77%
OGUR 14%
VIET  6%
MASI  2%
ARBO  1%

Moto2:
LOWE 64%
BAST 29%
MARI  7%

MotoGP:
JMIR 71%
QUAR 20%
VINA  6%
MORB  2%

In each division there is a clear favorite and a main contender, cumulating more than 90% between them. Then there are one, two or three riders with an outside chance.

It is interesting that even if Ogura has just a point advantage over Vieti, the simulations, picking possible scores from past races, gives a distinctly greater probability for the Japanese.

I have considered all the past races equally relevant to forecast possible future races. It can be argued that riders' form changes through the season and, thus, the last races should be more relevant. This is true in a few cases and it is a valid point, but for most of the riders the scores through a season cannot be distinguished from random variations. This is something that I have calculated a few times in moto and car racing, however counterintuitive it seems.

[Dani Filth]

this .. more or less .. confirms Mir as World Champion
question .. will he win a race this season?

[GORDON STREETER]

Mixed weather in qualifying with a bit of a lottery between wet and dry tyres, McPhee on pole in Moto3.
Shame about Jake Dixon who crashed in practice and broke his wrist just as he was really getting good up the front in Moto2 and hopefully Sam Lowes will get another win. The weather is supposed to be good for tomorrow and the MotoGP will be good with the points so close up the sharp end, funny season with Mir leading the Championship for Suzuki when has never won a race at this level !

[E.B]

Have we ever had a winless MotoGP champion before?
I know Emilio Alzamora won the 125 title in the late nineties without winning a race in the year he won the title, although he had previously won 125cc GP's in prior years.

I just wondered if it had ever happened in the senior class. Moreso if any rider has ever won the senior title having never won a (senior) GP previously.

Of course asking that question probably will see Mir take the top step this weekend under Sod's Law, thus rendering the question irrelevant.

[Dani Filth]

you were saying??

[Schummy]

A quick note to update probabilities just before this second last race:

MotoGP:
MIR 99%
QUA 1%

Moto2:
BAS 60%
LOW 31%
MARI 8%
BEZ 1%

Moto3:
ARE 55%
OGU 30%
VIE 10%
ARB 4%
MAS 1%

The rest of them have less than 1% of probabilities, although some of them have a theoretical possibility (like Rins, Vinales, Morbi, Dovi, McPhee, Fernandez).

Basically:
--Mir is super solid
--Basti and Lowes will fight for the title, with a side chance for Marini
--Arenas, Ogura and perhaps Vieti will fight for the title, with a side chance for Toni.

Let's see what happens in a few hours... I foresee some laughs and tears will happen...

[Schummy]

Not very big changes in Valencia 2... except the very unfortunate injury in Lowes's wrist.

Probabilities of title, according to simulations with past results (also the gap to the leader):

Moto3:
ARE 73%
OGU 20% -8
ARB 7% -11

Moto2:
BAS 84%
LOW 13% -14
MARI 3% -18
BEZ <1% -23

MotoGP:
MIR 100% LOL


Obviously, those cold numbers don't take in account Lowe's wrist status. So I expect a lower probability, if he doesn't heal in these few days.

Arbolino still has a shot to the title; actually I am a bit surprised that his probs are so low, because 11 points in Moto3 happen in the blink of an eye.

Bez's probs are negligible ... but if BAS somehow crash and with an injured Lowes and a ghostly Marini, who knows, he has to recover just 5 points to Luca. I think I see Marini less likely than Bez. At the end of the day it is a championship that is up to Bastia.

I have to say Mir is a very solid candidate for title in Portimao

If I had to make my choice for the fastest rider along the season in each division, I would go with Morbidelli, Lowes and Arenas/Fernandez, with close company by Quartararo(!) and Marini. It doesn't detracts anything from Mir because he won the title with the official and traditional scoring that everybody admits. Moreover I feel happy for Mir, Davide Brivio and Suzuki, I think it is good for the sport. Bravo! ... or Brivio!