For Skaife to win???????

billy bigtime · 24 Oct 2005, 03:06 (Ref:1441728)

If Mark was to win all 6 races(2 rounds) he would end up with 1900 points.
If Russell was to finish 9th in all six races he would end up with 1898 points.
If Russell was to finish 8th in all 6 races he would end up with 1910 points.

Thanks to bling bling

twig · 24 Oct 2005, 03:29 (Ref:1441737)

With Russell's car being reliable and very quick - i don't think we would have a case of him consistantly finishing down the order. The most likely issue would be that he crashes out of a multi-race event - or has a problem or bogs it in one race - and ends up with results like: DNF - 20th - 9th.

But think about it, if Ingall has these problems - what makes you think Skaife would be the man to take the title? Ambrose and Lowndes are in front of him.

Then again, Marcus isn't the fastest man at the moment, it's probably Lowndes, Skaife, Ambrose...but very close still.

Assuming Marcus can stay out of trouble - which is sometimes a problem for him when he is up against it, i think he's going to take the title - but this is a damn close one, so we may be thinking completely differently after next round.

retro · 24 Oct 2005, 03:33 (Ref:1441741)

Quote:

Originally Posted by billy bigtime

Thanks to bling bling

Hey Tricky when did you start wearing Gold jewelry

craig1 · 24 Oct 2005, 06:01 (Ref:1441780)

If you were a betting person you would have to back CL.

He's the one with the speed and momentum at the moment.

ironside · 24 Oct 2005, 06:31 (Ref:1441791)

Quote:

Originally Posted by billy bigtime

If Mark was to win all 6 races(2 rounds) he would end up with 1900 points.
If Russell was to finish 9th in all six races he would end up with 1898 points.
If Russell was to finish 8th in all 6 races he would end up with 1910 points.

Thanks to bling bling

Or if SBR have another shocker like they did this weekend, that would put Skaife in a good position too wouldn't it billy boy?.

And then all Holden fans need is Lowndes to tap a wall again trying too hard like at Bathurst and that would do for Skaifey as well.

Ambrose has taken an almost unbeatable championship lead and p*ssed it all away in 3 rounds mate.

All Skaife's got to do is drive smooth and clean like he has been doing, 3 podiums in the last 3 rounds and wait for all thoseFords around him to fall over (as they have been doing).

Russell should be ok though, no chicanes in Tassie or PI as far as I know?

Ambrose on the other hand has taken one of the biggest championship leads in the series history and thrown it all away.

Oh mercy, poor old SBR

Aarrgh8 · 24 Oct 2005, 06:38 (Ref:1441793)

The permutations are endless. One thing bling bling didn't mention was what would happen to Russ's points if in any race, a freek non-finish gave him no points.

ironside · 24 Oct 2005, 06:57 (Ref:1441802)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aarrgh8

The permutations are endless. One thing bling bling didn't mention was what would happen to Russ's points if in any race, a freek non-finish gave him no points.

A DNF in race #1 or #2 at either remaining round would be disasterous for Ingall.

With 6 races, there's 64 points per win still up for grabs. But a DNF early in the weekend could see someone lose much more, as they'd then have to start from rear of grid and try and fight back (ala Ambrose last weekend) and as poor Marcos's 2nd race showed, things can go horribly wrong when you're stuck down in the pack.

Let's see what Tassie brings us.

The championship is Ingall's for the taking, but he should listen to his 2 time championship winning team mate. It's his championship to lose.

Falcadore · 24 Oct 2005, 06:59 (Ref:1441803)

Quote:

Originally Posted by billy bigtime

If Mark was to win all 6 races(2 rounds) he would end up with 1900 points.
If Russell was to finish 9th in all six races he would end up with 1898 points.
If Russell was to finish 8th in all 6 races he would end up with 1910 points.

Thanks to bling bling

It's not that simple. If Lowndes for example finished second in each race behind Skaife, then Lowndes would be champion by a single point.

You see Skaife doesn't have to beat Ingall. He has to beat Ingall, AND Ambrose AND Lowndes.

ironside · 24 Oct 2005, 09:05 (Ref:1441880)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Falcadore

It's not that simple. If Lowndes for example finished second in each race behind Skaife, then Lowndes would be champion by a single point.

You see Skaife doesn't have to beat Ingall. He has to beat Ingall, AND Ambrose AND Lowndes.

Just like he did at Bathurst eh?

I'd love it all to go down to the last race at PI with maybe a dozen points seperating the top 4.

craig1 · 24 Oct 2005, 10:22 (Ref:1441953)

Ingal can still have one bad run and probably still figure in the out come of the title. A sixty something point LEAD is better than being the same behind.

If any of the others so much as blink their goooone.

If I was Rusty and someone was getting in my ear about this Championship too loose crap I'd probably remind them of that.

I recon it means that he can still afford to take more chances than the followers if you look at it this way.

billy bigtime · 24 Oct 2005, 10:54 (Ref:1441986)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aarrgh8

The permutations are endless. One thing bling bling didn't mention was what would happen to Russ's points if in any race, a freek non-finish gave him no points.

I also didn't mention what would happen if Skaife has a DNF. My post was based on Skaife winning all 6 races which of course he will not. A FORD will win this year-which one? I don't know.

ironside · 24 Oct 2005, 11:55 (Ref:1442038)

Quote:

Originally Posted by billy bigtime

I also didn't mention what would happen if Skaife has a DNF. My post was based on Skaife winning all 6 races which of course he will not. A FORD will win this year-which one? I don't know.

I really don't mind if Ingall or Lowndes win the series to be honest.

I'd just be happy for Skaife to beat Ambrose. That way he can leave for the States with one final a$$ whipping by Holden's best to comfort him on his long slow flight.

Then Skaife can take on the new champ (Ingall or Lowndes) fair and square in next year's series.

The fact that even after Ambrose has done his best to take Skaife out of contention in Perth and EC, Skaife is a mere 28 points behind the 'devil racer'.

Not bad for a bloke who many had written off earlier in the year.

True class always shines through. What's left gets on a plane and heads overseas.

amiers · 24 Oct 2005, 12:04 (Ref:1442050)

ironside, one would assume you dont like Ambrose? thats fine however it is not all his fault he has lost the title lead. for anyone too win 2 in a row and have a 3rd in sight is a good effort for any driver whether you like him or not.

P.S i am not an Ambrose fan. i respect all these drivers for their talent.

The Hrt Kid · 24 Oct 2005, 12:13 (Ref:1442058)

ironside wouldnt happen to one and only dave moy by any chance would he

banned from central, new member here 10 posts old... hmmmmmmmm

amiers · 24 Oct 2005, 12:18 (Ref:1442067)

we do not mention THAT name please!!!!!!!!

billy bigtime · 24 Oct 2005, 23:52 (Ref:1442656)

I think a few of you need to read my original post.
Skaife would need to WIN ALL 6 RACES and russell to average 9th in all 6 races.
Aint going to happen.
And don't forget Ambrose and Lowndes.

ironside · 25 Oct 2005, 00:42 (Ref:1442670)

That's assuming the extreme happens, which is unlikely. Whilst Skaife is unlikely to win 6 on the trot, Ingall could possibly DNF one. A DNF early in the round means a back of grid start for the next race and then anything can happen (as it did to poor Marcos).

The same ofcourse is just as possible for Lowndes or Skaife or even Ambrose (again).

I don't think 66 points is a safe enough buffer, but who knows?

With Ambrose only 15 points ahead of Lowndes and Skaife a mere 13 points further back. Poor Marcos only needs a single drive through or bad start and suddenly he could be staring down the barrel of 4th place, not fighting for first!

And I've seen all of these wonderful calculations before. Except they were all built around how easy it was going to be for Ambrose to 'cruise' home.

That's all gone to the dogs now hasn't it?

smokinJ · 25 Oct 2005, 10:58 (Ref:1442917)

I too would like to see Ingal or Lowndes win this year
it will be enough to fluster Marcos big time

beside that Lowndes has been flogging **** cars for such a long time
its about time his efforts have paid off

and Ingal the old dog has settled down and is driving with his head
and deserves a bone

Falcadore · 25 Oct 2005, 12:33 (Ref:1442995)

Quote:

Originally Posted by ironside

Just like he did at Bathurst eh?

and didn't do at Indy. If he has a weekend like Indy at Symmons, the likely is it won't be good enough.

Sometimes, third place isn't good enough.

ironside · 26 Oct 2005, 08:16 (Ref:1443669)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Falcadore

and didn't do at Indy. If he has a weekend like Indy at Symmons, the likely is it won't be good enough.

Sometimes, third place isn't good enough.

Not really mate.

If Skaife scores what he did at Indy (182) and Ingall scores what he did (122) and Ambrose (58), then Skaife would fly past Ambrose (and would in fact be 96 points in front of poor Marcos) and close the gap to Ingall to just 34 points!

The wild card in that scenario is Lowndes of course, as well as a thousand other variables. But my point is that a 3rd from Skaife and poor performances by the three ahead could be more than enough to not only catch them, but take the lead in the championship.

It ain't over 'till it's over matey...

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