Moto Grand Prix FIM 2021: Probability of Title

[Schummy]

Before the FranceGP and after the first 4 races, I, being a boring person, just wanted to make a calculation of "probability of getting the title", according to the current points situation. The (approximate) results for the three categories are:

(First number is the point gap, second number is "one-race-gap", third number is the approximate probability.)

MotoGP
BAG           33%
QUA   2  0.5  27%
VIN  16  4.1   8%
MIR  17  4.4   8%
ZAR  18  4.6   7%
MIL  27  7.0   4%
AESP 31  8.0   3%
MOR  33  8.5   2%
RIN  43 11.1   1%

Moto2
GAR           32%
LOW   3  0.8  24%
FER   6  1.5  18%
BEZ  13  3.4  10%
DIG  17  4.4   7%
ROB  38  9.8   2%
CAN  39 10.1   1%
VIE  43 11.1   1%

Moto3
ACO           75%
ANT  51 13.2   3%
MIG  53 13.7   3%
FEN  55 14.2   3%
MAS  56 14.5   2%
BIN  59 15.2   2%
SAS  62 16.0   2%

The basic supposition is things will continue without any disruption in current performance of makers (or less likely, teams and riders). An example of possible disruption is Marc Marquez really getting back to form.

[Schummy]

As a sort of complement, I include graphs of the changes in those probabilities across the first four races.

Riders represented: (colors are approx the bike color)
1st MotoGP: BAG, QUA, VIN, MIR, ZAR
2nd Moto2: GAR, LOW, FER, BEZ, DiG
3rd Moto3: ACO, MAS, BIN, ANT

[Dani Filth]

Schummy!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Schummy]

Daniiiii!!

Where are you been all this time? You have posted almost nothing during years!!

("The best defence is a good attack")

[Schummy]

Updating probabilities of title (using simulations with current data) after Mugello:

Moto3
ACO 79%
MAS 3%
SAS 3%
GAR 2%
FEN 2%

Moto2
GAR 54%
FER 33%
BEZ 8%
LOW 2%
DIG 1%

MotoGP
QUA 62%
ZAR 10%
BAG 9%
MIL 6%
MIR 4%
VIN 3%
AESP 1%
BIN 1%

Acosta has a huge advantage but the title is not in his hands yet. He has 4/5 probability and the rest has collectively 1/5.

Gardner and RFernandez have 87% probability of title, and together with Bezzecchi they add to 95%. Those three will fight for the title. IMO Lowes is busted already: he would have to overcome all of those three to get the title.

Fabio is obviously favorite in MotoGP, but actually the race for the title is still pretty open, with 6 riders still with some possibilities. Quartararo has approx 2/3 probability of getting the title but "Rest of the World" still has approx 1/3 probability.

[Schummy]

Another update, this time is after Germany.

Probabilities of getting the title if nothing new disrupts the current status of racing (for example, a long term injury, Marc Marquez becoming himself again, etc)

Moto3   
    last  now
ACO   80% 92%          Contender
GAR    6%  3% +24      Precontender
MAS    3%  1%      -7  Preelim
ANT    1%  1%       0  Preelim
FEN    2%  1%      +1  Preelim
FOG    1%  1%
BIN    2   1%

Moto2
     last now 
GAR   65% 86%          Contender
FER   28%  8%  +5      Precontender
BEZ    4%  4% +16      Precontender
LOW    1%  1%      -2  Preelim

MotoGP  
     last now con eli
QUA   57% 68%          Contender
ZAR   18% 13% -10      Contender
MIL    8%  7%  -1      Contender
BAG    7%  6%  +1      Contender
MIR    4%  2% +15      Precontender
VIN    3%  1% +25      Precontender
OLI    3%  1%     -23  Preelim
BIN                -5  Preelim
AESP   1%          -2  Preelim

"last": probs before the race.
"now": probs after the race.
"Contender": if probability of title is approx 5% or better.
"Precontender": if can become a Contender in the next GP.
"Eliminated": if prob is approx less than 0.5%
"Preeliminated": if can be eliminated in the next GP.

In short:

Moto 3: Acosta is the only title contender, with a massive advantage. Only five riders are still in the hunt; probably only two after the next GP.

Moto 2: The crash in Sachsenring was very expensive for RFernandez. Now he has fallen to a 8% of probability and Gardner was boosted toward a 86%. The australian now is the only true contender. Only 4 riders continue with possibilities and Sam Lowes possibly gets discarded after the next GP.

MotoGP: Quartararo increased slightly his advantage thanks to his good head. However there are worthy contenders in Zarco, Miller and Bagnaia. Still a lot of riders (9) in the quest for the title; probably two of then will get discarded.

The attached graphs show the evolution of probability of title through the season.