[Driver] The Raikkonen Supremacy

[ottostreet]

External link to full article on FormulaSpy.com

Kimi Raikkonen might be the perfect man to replace Mark Webber for next season, but he could also be the man to ruin Red Bull.

It's almost inconceivable now to think that, in mid 2011, it was considered very risky to even think about hiring Kimi Raikkonen. Flashes of speed in WRC, mixed with plenty of crashes and incidents, as well as a departure from F1 that saw the Finn slink away from the sport with his tail between his legs, didn't inspire a lot of confidence. After Massa's accident at the Hungaroring in 2009, Kimi came to life to score more points than anyone else but Lewis Hamilton in the second half of the season, but at Abu Dhabi, Kimi finished outside the points, and that was that. The F1 career of the 2007 champion was over within two years, as far as most people were concerned.

Whatever the reasons for Raikkonen being driven from the sport, whether they be political, performance, motivation, or even possible mental fatigue, the two year break from the sport has done him the world of good. Returning with Lotus (who must be commended for taking a risk on him, champion or not), he has won two Grand Prixs, numerous podiums, and looks every inch the formidable behemoth of the sport that he was for many years.

So much so, that he now has the option to drive for the most successful team of the last few years. His days at McLaren & Ferrari may be quite a while ago now, but he is being offered the chance to drive for the team that can deliver him championships again. It would be pointless to even hazard a guess at what Kimi might do at this point, without a contract in F1, as the Finn has a habit of doing whatever isn't expected of him. For all we know at ths point, he is as likely to be enter the World Kite Flying Championships as he is to be driving for Red Bull in F1 next season.

But for all his talent and speed, is he the right man to replace Mark Webber? On paper, he certainly appears to be so. As we saw last time out, at the Nurburgring, he is challenging Sebastian Vettel for race wins, and this is while he is driving an arguably inferior car. Surely then, if the two can finish 1-2 while driving for different teams, they can do so while driving for Red Bull? As long as the car remains fast after the regulation changes, easy championships await, with two of the very best drivers vying for the top spot at the head of the team, and of F1.

It's not that easy for Red Bull. The reality is that one driver must finish second. Kimi won't agree to a contract that makes him the Number 2, particularly with so few seasons left in him to win another championship. He will be the eldest driver on the grid next year (assuming Michael doesn't get bored driving Corinna and the kids around again), and while his break in 2010/2011 seems to have rejuvenated Raikkonen, it's hard to see him continuing in the sport beyond 2015/2016, if even that far. So...that gives him two to three seasons to win another title.

Now let's look across the garage at his team-mate, Mr. Vettel. Sebastian and Kimi get on well right now, as rivals at different teams, but they have not been thrown into the melting pot of inter-team rivalry yet. Sebastian has been part of the Red Bull family for years now, and has won everything there is to win with them. Assuming all things are fair and equal as team-mates, Raikkonen is one of the few drivers with the talent and mental fortitude to be able to harangue Vettel for the World Title. Should Kimi beat Sebastian, then things get very difficult for Red Bull.

It would be presumptuous and unfair to presume Sebastian would throw his toys out of the pram, but it wouldn't be unsafe to assume that Vettel would be extremely unhappy with the situation. He is only just turned 26, and is arguably only reaching his prime years now, the years where youthful exuberance and fearless speed, match harmoniously with experienced racecraft, seasoned maturity, and the ability to handle high-pressure situations as they occur. The perfect man then, to hold on, very tightly, to. The man not to annoy by, say, teaming him with a driver who is every bit as capable, but not likely to be around for very long.

Red Bull do not need Kimi Raikkonen. They want him, yes, and it would be fan-bloody-tastic to have two of the very best go head to head in the best machinery. History doesn't lend itself kindly to these situations though, and there's nothing to suggest that things might be different this time. Should Raikkonen sign for Red Bull, it's almost a certainty that the team will need to replace both Vettel & Raikkonen by the end of their contracts. Raikkonen due to retirement, and Vettel due to being completely hacked off at being matched or beaten by the Finn at 'his' team.

Behind the cheeky, personable smile on Sebastian Vettel's face, there lies the razor-sharp fangs of a hungry wolf. We occasionally catch glimpses of the fangs, glistening in the sun, and we saw them in plain view, snarling in our faces, back in Malaysia. Off-track, Vettel could be the nicest guy in the world, but it won't stop him doing his best to annihilate Kimi Raikkonen, a situation that is unlikely as long as the team remain impartial.

Also, should the team not opt for Daniel Ricciardo, it calls into question the necessity for Dr Helmut Marko's Red Bull Young Driver's Academy. After all, it has only really produced Sebastian Vettel, and, as close as Raikkonen is linked to Mateschitz's company following his WRC adventures, Kimi is not a Red Bull product. If the in-house driver development program can't produce drivers of Raikkonen/Vettel standards, then why keep it going, when they can just hire externally (a la Kimi)?

Finally, if Kimi signs, and retires within 2-3 years, and Sebastian leaves for pastures new, with no top gun lined up to head the squad, will Mateschitz lose patience? Could he pull the plug on his F1 endeavour? Red Bull signing Kimi may win them titles in the short-term, but risks costing them Sebastian, as well as potentially ruining the careers of Daniel Ricciardo & Jean-Eric Vergne. If Kimi was even five years younger, then there would be little risk in signing him, with or without Sebastian's blessing.

It's a doomsday scanerio, true, but one that is not particularly hard to envisage. Two cockerels in the hen-house doesn't work, as many top teams have discovered. But wouldn't it be great to watch them try?

[wnut]

Would be interesting to see them up against one another in the same team.

I do think that RBR should protect themselves from the two roosters problem though, it never works out well.

Having said that, much as I think Kimi is an extraordinary talent, I think Vettel would deal with him pretty effectively.

However I don't think pairing Vettel and Kimi will enhance RBR's chance of winning either a WDC or WCC, so why do it?

[stripedcat]

Originally Posted by wnut

Would be interesting to see them up against one another in the same team.

I do think that RBR should protect themselves from the two roosters problem though, it never works out well.

Having said that, much as I think Kimi is an extraordinary talent, I think Vettel would deal with him pretty effectively.

However I don't think pairing Vettel and Kimi will enhance RBR's chance of winning either a WDC or WCC, so why do it?

In the past, Kimi's problem was that he wasn't consistent - but since he has re-entered F1 he has been amasing consistent.

It would be intriguing to see him and Vettel in the same team - but it seems likely that Red Bull might go with someone else.

[Razzzor]

When you've got a guy like Vettel as your #1 driver, I'd want to sign a great #2, not a second #1. Kimi is a second #1, but Daniel is probably still not good enough to match what RB need as a #2 driver. Webber was perfect, usually a close second to Vettel but never really beating him anymore.

I do think Vettel, assuming he still has the same passion to gain another title next year, would beat Kimi.

I suppose when Vettel got the call up to RB it was very early in his career as well, earlier than Ricciardo. Although at that point RB was still a mid-fielder. But he did pretty well with straight away.

[ottostreet]

I actually would hate to be the person at Red Bull to make the call over whether to sign Kimi or not (assuming Kimi is willing).

Kimi is too old to stay long-term, while Sebastian is too young to risk losing to someone like Ferrari. If Kimi was still on the right side of 30, then I'd say fire away and hire him, but they can't risk being without a proper champion driver within 2 seasons.

[Teretonga]

Originally Posted by ottostreet

I actually would hate to be the person at Red Bull to make the call over whether to sign Kimi or not (assuming Kimi is willing).

Kimi is too old to stay long-term, while Sebastian is too young to risk losing to someone like Ferrari. If Kimi was still on the right side of 30, then I'd say fire away and hire him, but they can't risk being without a proper champion driver within 2 seasons.

Oh easy. If Seb leaves Mark could come back to cover for a couple of years until Mr Marko found another star in the driver development programme...

[Mr V]

Originally Posted by Teretonga

Oh easy. If Seb leaves Mark could come back to cover for a couple of years until Mr Marko found another star in the driver development programme...

But Red Bull would need a number 1 style driver, which effectively rules Mark out. Not sure Daniel would be upto the task to be honest either.

[Teretonga]

Originally Posted by Mr V

But Red Bull would need a number 1 style driver, which effectively rules Mark out. Not sure Daniel would be upto the task to be honest either.

Well Marks ability to win?
That's a matter of opinion although at Silverstone Mark described himself as a No. 2 driver a couple of years ago......
After all a no.2 who can do some winning is probably better than some No. 1's at other teams....
Marks No.2 ability is much greater than that of some other No. 1's anyway....

Drivers are like wine. They mature with age if they've been fermented properly... Look at Kimi.....
So I think Daniel will do a lot of growing in the RBR camp and he is young enough to have the time to do it if they let him.

But seriously? I think Mark has worked out a way of getting 2 or 3 good years of competition in where he can enjoy what he's doing without all the B/S and still be well paid for it.

There is no where else to go in F1 and maybe the Ferrari door was already closed to him so what else could he do? Go to Renault..........?
Not likely.

[Mr V]

Originally Posted by Teretonga

Well Marks ability to win?

Occasionally!

With a car capable (in Vettels hands at least) to win the title, Mark has finished 3rd, 3rd and 6th, and is currently 5th in a car that is leading the title. Not exactly leadership quality that Red Bull would be looking for.

[Beryl]

IMO Kimi was that driver who looked good because he never had a top teammate. The closest he had was pre-accident Massa, and Massa beat him. Kimi is a very solid driver, but not a top #1 IMO, just a good #1 or a very very good #2 (sort of like Button). I think he would do great beside Vettel.

Webber I rate highly when he was younger, he was very quick. I doubt he would have looked like a #2 beside anyone besides Vettel and Alonso (and maybe Hamilton), and indeed he never did. But he's old now, and his time has passed for being a #1 in F1. Best enjoy his time in sports cars now.

[pauln]

Originally Posted by Teretonga

That's a matter of opinion although at Silverstone Mark described himself as a No. 2 driver a couple of years ago......

That would be the "Not bad for a number 2 driver" comment as he won the British Grand Prix after Seb had been given all the new parts for the race? Strikes me as irony rather than self-description.

[garcon]

A very good piece that highlights the dilemma.

I cannot see Kimi signing for Red Bull without the sort of guarantees they simply cannot provide. Better for Red Bull to concentrate on Vettel and promote Ricciardo.

It will be interesting to see what Kimi does next. I hope he stays in F1, he's the kind of character the sport desperately needs with the quality to still do well - for me he is the most naturally gifted driver F1 has seen for some years.

[Bononi]

Exactly my thoughts... we've seen from the past in Senna's and Piquet's contracts that it's a common sense in F1 to have #1 and #2 in a team, the equality in theory might be a good thing but when it comes to reality things are very different.

[bjohnsonsmith]

Apparently Kimi's larger wage bill will not be a deciding factor, when it comes to choosing him or Ricciardo.

http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/108952

I would have thought any cost saving would be considered.

[Marbot]

Originally Posted by bjohnsonsmith

I would have thought any cost saving would be considered.

Red Bull have never been a team that's needed to have cut costs. In fact, quite the opposite seems to be their philosophy.

[bjohnsonsmith]

Originally Posted by Marbot

Red Bull have never been a team that's needed to have cut costs. In fact, quite the opposite seems to be their philosophy.

If you got money to burn, fairenough.

[garcon]

But they have spent money in a very particular, focused way. I can't see them blowing a huge amount on a contract for Kimi if they see any risk of it jeopardising ongoing success with Seb.

[Mr V]

Can't help but think that Ricciardo is doing a great job of getting the seat.

[PepsiVodka]

Lets put this question into our minds. Would Kimi even want to go to RBR for 2014 as second driver even though he could easily wipe the floor against Vettel if he wanted to. He would be a victim of team orders (always in favour of Vettel) which would cost him any chance of challenging Vettel.

[bjohnsonsmith]

Originally Posted by PepsiVodka

Lets put this question into our minds. Would Kimi even want to go to RBR for 2014 as second driver even though he could easily wipe the floor against Vettel if he wanted to. He would be a victim of team orders (always in favour of Vettel) which would cost him any chance of challenging Vettel.

A very good question and I think your synopsis is correct.

[davyboy]

Originally Posted by PepsiVodka

Lets put this question into our minds. Would Kimi even want to go to RBR for 2014 as second driver even though he could easily wipe the floor against Vettel if he wanted to. He would be a victim of team orders (always in favour of Vettel) which would cost him any chance of challenging Vettel.

I think it's highly unlikely Kimi would 'wipe the floor' with Vettel... in fact there's a lot of evidence to suggest that Kimi would look very ordinary against the youngest ever triple WDC.

The only reason Kimi would swap a clear number 1 seat at Lotus [in a potentially title winning car] for an obvious number 2 seat at RBR would be money. Given how wealthy he already is, it would be a pity to see this happen.

[PepsiVodka]

Originally Posted by davyboy

I think it's highly unlikely Kimi would 'wipe the floor' with Vettel... in fact there's a lot of evidence to suggest that Kimi would look very ordinary against the youngest ever triple WDC.

The only reason Kimi would swap a clear number 1 seat at Lotus [in a potentially title winning car] for an obvious number 2 seat at RBR would be money. Given how wealthy he already is, it would be a pity to see this happen.

Think about what what you said. Kimi looking ordinary? If the car were to become a slower car or not the fastest then Kimi would 'wipe the floor' with Vettel. The only thing Vettel fans have to defend against Kimi fans saying he's better is that win at Monza 2008 with STR but again that car was becoming better than even the Renault. But I do agree with your last sentence. I would want Kimi to go to RBR for the number 1 seat not some number 2 seat with lots of money (which he already has).

[Bononi]

Kim won't leave Lotus.

[garcon]

I wouldn't say Kimi would wipe the floor with Vettel, but he would - if allowed - be a very real challenger. As would Alonso. But I don't think either of them will end up in the Red Bull seat.

[Knowlesy]

Keep Kimi motivated and he can beat anyone. Look at him when he was really hungry, 2003-2006 and last season.

But he isn't a number two, which is what Red Bull will plump for.