Who will win first -Trulli or Button?

[RWC]

Once the summer temps get right up for the european races we have to expect the michelin teams to do better.
When ferrari aren't in the hunt who do you think will get a win?Ralf looks about as likely as pantano(lol),Montoya is a definite ,it looks like kimi will have 18 engine blowups this season (!) but how about the other guys?
Button looks VERY good it must be said.If alonso can beat his bad luck he'll do well (and the aero efficient renault will FLY in spain!)
Even truli may,possibly,in a blue moon kind of day have a chance at a win..!

How about sato...now that would be something...lol

[Mark Webber]

I like button as I've stated before but luck and other's misfortune have helped him alot so far this season once Alonso & Kimmi get back on track Button's runs of 3rds will stop

[Skam85]

Button will be EXTREMELY lucky if he can snatch a win this season. I don't see it happening but I didn't see Fisi winning last year though did I? He would have to have a gambler's chance at, say, Spa, USA or Shanghai for a lucky win. Spa if his engine holds up (usually a lot of retirements in Spa), Shanghai as it's a relative unknown and also have a high rate of attrition, and USA mainly based on last years race. Of the others, I'd give DC a win, Rubens a couple, Kimi a win, Ralf a podium (if he's lucky ), JPM 3 wins, Alonso a win, and Trulli in the same boat as Button, but he has a better car under him so who knows, maybe in Spain or Hockenheim?? That makes 8 wins out of the next 16 for the 'others', leaving Michael with 10 wins and a 7th WC and an emotional retirement in Brazil RD 18......

[climb]

The question can have only one answer, and the answer is:
"Ask Ferrari!"

[esorniloc]

I don't think that either Trulli or Button are good enough to win a GP.

[climb]

Basically that's nto a problem of being enough good, but to hope that both Ferrari DNF.
If it happens, then we can discuss something, but it's clear that, if only one Ferrari finishes tha race, as far as now, there is no chance for nobody else, whoever he is, to win a race.

[Don K]

I still think Coulthard, Ralf and Montoya will win a race this year.
And possibly Raikkonen.

--------

That's my answer to the question that is asked in the first post, not an answer to the question that is asked in the thread title.

[hamsmith]

I think if Button can get on pole and get away well there is no reason for Button not to win.

[Kicking-back]

Button will win.

Trulli will not.

[Raven]

Button now has the same number of podiums as Trulli (2), although I doubt either will win this year. Button would be my pick. I'm not half confident that JT will ever win a race.

[shiny side up!]

As much as I like Trulli, I fear he may never visit the top step of the podium, as Raven (and others) said. He just can't run a full race distance without a mistake or bad luck. He doesn't quite have the speed and grit of Alonso, who can carry the car with his driving and occaisionally force it to win...

Button, I think, is capable of putting in a mistake-free performance, but also not capable of making a car tour the circuit faster than it rightly should. I don't see him winning unless there is attrition, or unless there is some track on which the BAR is the best car...

[RWC]

Like many of you i think button could do it but suspect (sadly) that trulli ALLWAYS does something go wrong when he is in a good position.For some reason i can imagine him being a total whimp and LETTING michael past on the one day he has the fastest car.....why do i think that?...
I can't work him out.
Like alesi he seems to be pathetic when he has real chance....

[jet]

I'll go for BUTTON.
Trulli has to much bad luck

[BARrouette]

Button for shure because the BAR is in excellent shape this year, McLarren and Williams are off the track and if they stay off for the rest or the season Bar will just have to hope that the ferrari to have a mecanical problem and you will see a 1st win for BAR Maby Monaco or Montreal.

[Thorstone]

I go for Trulli ,with an especially luck.
If you are talking about this season

[neilap]

Originally posted by Mark Webber
I like button as I've stated before but luck and other's misfortune have helped him alot so far this season once Alonso & Kimmi get back on track Button's runs of 3rds will stop

What??

I think you are reaching a little here. JB has outqualified many of the people he has beaten and with one of the heaviest cars on the grid!(fuel wise) The only time he has been lucky was with JPM problems. Anything else has been the team doing the job.

Can JB get a win? I dont think the BAR Honda is fast enough to do that right now. If they can make a leap during the season and no one else does (unlikely) then yes but as it stands he would need a lot of luck.

Trulli? The Renault is fast on handling tracks. The problem with tha car is it does not have enough straight line speed to make passes. Watching Alonso behind the much slower Webber was a perfect example. In the turns he was almost touching the Jag but on the straight he would be in the draft and still not able to pass. Same with Sato. Trulli could win somewhere like Monaco but I would not expect it on any fast tracks.

As for driver ablility; you dont make it in F1 if you dont know how to win. The only ones who are questionable are the pay drivers and even they usually come with a fair amount of winning behind them.

[Russfeld]

Button, by a landslide. I dont even remember the last two Trulli podiums. And this year's BAR is far above this year's Renault

[bluebeard]

quote:
As for driver ablility; you dont make it in F1 if you dont know how to win. The only ones who are questionable are the pay drivers and even they usually come with a fair amount of winning behind them.

i assume you are excluding Baumgartner from this neilap? i'm led to believe he has never won a race in any formula. is this correct? i'm sure someone out there can verify :confused:

[bluebeard]

I should have added I think Button will win first

[Poddy]

Working on the assumption that, over the course of the season, BAR and Renault will be pretty closely matched, I think Button is the more likely.

Much as I admire Trulli's consistancy and pace as a driver, as long as Alonso's there he's going to have a driver much quicker than him with the same machinery - and when the Renault is capable of chalenging for wins, chances are Alonso's going to be the one most likely to exploit that. By contrast, you'd expect Button to get the better of Sato most of the time over the course of a season.

That said, they'll probably both need those red cars out to do so, along with (once they start to understand the car better) the Williamses as the season progresses.

[senna12]

Between the two of them, I would take Button. The likelihood of it occurring this season would require circumstances like Fisi had in Brazil. The Ferraris appear bulletproof. If there's trouble, Rubens will have it.

Trulli's ultimate race pace has always been in question. Hopefully their expected power upgrades for Imola will allow them to narrow the gap, but Fernando is more likely to exploit this.

I believe JP will win at least once this season. On present form, Kimi will have to absolutely wring a win out of what Steve Matchett calls "a dog of a McLaren".

[Nina]

BAR have an enginr upgrade coming too - I wouldnt rule Button out, but I think his time is still to come

[BootsOntheSide]

I don't think Truli will ever be a race winner. Despite his pace, he doesn't seem to have mcuh consistncy or luck. Late last year and early this year have seen some improvement, but I can't imagine it being enough.

Jenson should be at some point, although this season seems a bit optimistic. I can't see them finsihing higher than 3rd this year, because once the other teams have their reliability right, they'll be able to advance on pace.

[Don K]

An answer to the question asked in the thread title, ignoring the first post.

I think both Trulli and Button could win a race, if they get a seat with one of the top teams.

- I don't think either of them is in such a position this year.

- Looking at their current teams: I think at this moment Renault is closer to becoming a top team than BAR.
Not much difference there (maybe one year). And I would recon they should be looking at something like 2 victories per 3 seasons.
So this aspect would give Trulli a slight edge.

- Looking at changing teams: I think Button has a greater chance to enter a top team (like Williams) within the next few years. On the other hand, Trulli might still have a slightly bigger chance at a Ferrari seat than Button (not much chance).

- On the long run, I think Button has a *much* better chance that Trulli to be at a top team in say 4 or 5 years.

---

So I would say:
- Neither of them will win a race this year.
- In 2005-2007, Trulli will have a greater chance as long as both of them stay at their current teams, and Button will have a greater chance as soon as he moves to Williams (or another top team).
- If neither of them has won a race before 2008, Trulli will have (virtually) no chance of winning a race in the rest of his carreer, while Button will have that chance for quite some time yet.

[Don K]

An answer to the first post, ignoring both the question asked in the thread title and the question asked in the first post

I agree with you that Michael and Barrichello have the biggest chance of winning races this year.

However, I disagree with your analysis of the situation when the race is not won by a Ferrari driver.

Normally, I would think that Coulthard, Montoya and Ralf have even chances of winning such a race. And Raikkonen would also have some chance.
With the current reliability problems for McLaren, I would say Montoya and Ralf would be the most likely candidates ot win such a race (lets say 30% each). I would give Coulthard 20% chance, Raikkonen 10%, Alonso 5%.
And the other 5% would be divided by Trulli and Button.