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11 Oct 2012, 09:11 (Ref:3149831) | #1 | ||
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Probability of Win 2012
Probability of getting a win in next GP (after data from Japan).
Code:
AUS MALwCHI BAH SPA MON CAN EUR GBR GER HUN BEL ITA SIN JAP PoW EW P1W VET 2 - - 8 - - - - - - - 2 - 8 8 21% 20% 1.00 67% HAM - - - - - - 8 - - - 8 - 8 - - 18% 17% 0.85 60% ALO - 8 - - 2 - - 8 2 8 - - - - - 17% 16% 0.80 59% BUT 8 - 2 - - - - - - 2 - 8 - 2 - 14% 13% 0.65 51% WEB - - - - - 8 - - 8 - - - - - - 10% 10% 0.50 40% ROS - - 8 - - 2 - - - - - - - - - 5% 5% 0.25 23% MAL - - - - 8 - - - - - - - - - - 4% 4% 0.20 20% RAI - - - 2 - - - 2 - - 2 - - - - 4% 4% 0.20 18% PER - 2 - - - - - - - - - - 2 - - 3% 3% 0.15 13% MAS - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 2 2% 2% 0.10 10% GRO - - - - - - 2 - - - - - - - - 1% 1% 0.05 7% AO - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0% 0.3% 0.015 2% A bit of explanation of the table: - 8 and 2 mean first and second position in the GP. - PoW is... of course, Probability of Win (in the next GP). - EW is Expected number of wins in the next 5 GPs. - P1W is Probability of winning at least one race in the next 5 GPs. -AO means Any Other driver (for instance, Senna's prob of getting at least one win in the next 2 races is 2%) Same data about teams: Code:
PoW EW P1W RBR 30% 1.50 83% MCL 30% 1.50 83% FER 18% 0.90 63% MER 5% 0.25 24% LOT 5% 0.25 23% WIL 4% 0.20 20% SAU 3% 0.15 15% AO 0.6% 0.03 3%
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11 Oct 2012, 11:45 (Ref:3149908) | #2 | |
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My prediction is that only 4 drivers will be in the 200 club by the end of the season:
Seb - 273 LH - 249 FA - 248 KR - 223 |
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11 Oct 2012, 20:35 (Ref:3150114) | #3 | ||
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How did you work out those points? Is there any 'science' in there like Schummy's?
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11 Oct 2012, 20:44 (Ref:3150118) | #4 | |||
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Quote:
I think Seb will win the title, but it'll definitely be under 25 points difference to Alonso and come down to the last round. RB have been fast the last 2 races, but actually only marginally faster than Ferrari. Though Seb probably was cruising at Japan. So RB will probably will still have some races they won't be as quick in. Just my guesses though. |
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12 Oct 2012, 00:27 (Ref:3150201) | #5 | ||
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So Seb is in route for the WDC... brilliant.
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12 Oct 2012, 08:35 (Ref:3150306) | #6 | ||
Team Crouton
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Or not....
Probably one or the other. Can I bet on that? |
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12 Oct 2012, 14:25 (Ref:3150435) | #7 | ||
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Show me a man who won't give it to his woman An' I'll show you somebody who will |
12 Oct 2012, 17:21 (Ref:3150482) | #8 | ||
Team Crouton
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Spoilsport.......
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