A Speculative Fiction

[Speed-King]

Murphy hears the ACO’s in some disarray over the 2011 rules, with raging internal conflicts over details and the potential impact on the 2011 Le Mans entry. They’ve told teams one thing, then released drafts that did something quite different, and, ironically the on-going confusion is doing just what the Frogs fear – impacting the 2011 field. At least one project has been stopped dead in its tracks by the release of the most recent draft. [...] However, continuing rules prevarication from the ACO has caused a GT program to become a much more attractive option to Audi. One source says that the R18 – if it does go ahead – is now a “Le Mans only” car; not LMS, not ALMS, not LMIC – Le Mans ONLY.- Murphy the Bear, July 7th 2010.

So with Le Mans 2010 having come and gone we're still no closer to having definitive 2011 regulations. In the mean time we understand there is active discussion amongst the manufacturers (the teams are out of the loop) and the ACO. The primary topic of concern are the details of the 2011 grandfathering with the manufacturers and teams waiting with baited breath. One who wishes to remain anonymous recently stated to us in an email, "This is the ACO's to spoil in my opinion. And if they make the restrictions too onerous for current cars many teams may stay at home or do something else next year." Interestingly we're also hearing that the ACO is deathly afraid of this possibility, though the ball's in their court. - Mike Fuller - June 20th, 2010.

we confirm our desire to keep the round in Sepang and on this basis, we also want to introduce the SUPER GT in other countries, as China, Korea and Thailand, and elsewhere if the circuits are built. - Masaaki Bandoh, Président of SUPER GT, June 23th 2010

I think we could have an incredible fight, mixing [DTM] cars with our GT500s. We would like to somehow actualise joint events. - Masaaki Bandoh, Président of SUPER GT, March 18th, 2010.

"I have challenged my whole team to take a whole new, fresh look at everything,that includes venues. That includes our competition model."And it includes the series' marquee race, and one of the world's foremost races, the Rolex 24 at Daytona run every January.
"I would say everything's on the table," he said. "To me, that's on the table too. Right now, there's so many things, to tell the truth, that we are throwing out because I am asking our team, everything's on the table. Do the shotgun approach at me. Hit me with everything."
Part of his thinking centers on improving the relationship between the 24 hour race and the remainder of the Grand-Am schedule, including possibly tweaking the rules for the 24, combining it with other endurance races to create a series endurance championship within the overall championship.
- Tom Bledsoe, President of Grand Am. July 1st 2010

Grand Am told the assembled dignitaries they are in negotiations with DTM for a tie-up that will bring DTM to the USA.- Murphy the Bear, July 7th 2010.

We are not at all happy with the [how the balancing of performance has been handled for the M3 GTR and the WTCC-cars]
For years we have taken the position, a race car in the production car sector should comply to a certain degree with the series. Now we have abandoned this concept. The prototype concept is cheaper and makes life easier for everybody. There is a striking difference between racing series, in which only the regulations and then the race car is there, and those in which one must be a high effort to turn a road car into a race car . If this goes through, the DTM-M3 will be the core project of the BMW Motorsport. And that can not be only for one race series. The ideal scenario would be several national championships under the same regulations. Mario Theissen, Head of BMW Motorsports, July 7th 2010

So what do we end up with, when we combine all of this?

Perhaps this:

A) A gradual decline of ACO-style prototype racing over the next few years as manufacturers get fed-up with their constant rules-tinkering. Two of the worst implosions of prototype racing in sportscar history happened after the respective powers that were, decided to limit engine sizes - right now I wouldn't bet against that happening again.
I think Super GT's intention to expand into East Asia could play quite a big rule in that as well, as much of the Intercontinental Le Mans Challenge's attractiveness will depend on the ACO's ability to establish a presence in emerging markets like China and India. Super GT's popularity has already foiled the ACO's plans for a Japanese ACO-style series and it could also happen on a greater scale.

B) An increasing attractiveness of DTM and series that ally itself with it, as so far isolated championships (some of them HIGHLY successfull already) begin to share an attractive, cost-effective and stable ruleset. This might even lead to manufacturers abandoning ACO-style racing in favor of the DTM-rules, as Mario Theissen hints at in the case of BMW. See also Murphy's comment about Audi's R18 possibly being a Le Mans only car. DTM-cars could then not only compete in series all around the world, but also in some of the most important events in the racing world - the 24 hours at the Nürburgring would probably be open to allowing DTM-cars once again, as would the 24 hours of Daytona and even Spa might be up for grabs if Ratel doesn't get GT2 back on track in FIA competition. The big one would of course be missing - or would it?

C) With DTM's silhouette formula on the rise and prototypes on the decline, one could even imagine a serious number of manufacturers involved in the silhouette series to push the ACO towards allowing their cars to race at Le Mans - for overall victories that is. Super GT and DTM-cars are only slightly slower than current LMP2-cars and with LMP2s becoming LMP1s and adding on some serious weight, the gap might decline even further, so we could end up in a situation like in the late 70s or 90s, when GT/Silhouette cars could go head to head, if on different strategies, with the traditional prototypes. And as we have seen back then the prototypes might even be reduced to a secondary role everywhere apart from Le Mans and perhaps even there.

The ACO abandoned the FIA to make sure that their big race doesn't get ruined by outside forces ever again, but it seems like they are perfectly capable of runining it themselves.

DTM, on the other hand, after years of underachieving seems to finally realize its whole potential and it could very well be that they are the big winners of the decline of the ACO's fortunes if they play their hand right.
What we could end up with is something very much like Group 5 - not only in regard to it being a silhouette-formula, but also as far as the near-merger of GT and touring cars is concerned. I don't know about anyone else, but I would really welcome that.

[Subaru_WRX_STi]

very intresting indeed, seems that the ACO is in big troubles now, at least for the prototype division and their new rules

[dxk1]

I have a question! What was Jean Todt doing at the latest round of Grand Am in Daytona? Does Murphy have any poop on that?

DK

[Aysedasi]

Originally Posted by dxk1

I have a question! What was Jean Todt doing at the latest round of Grand Am in Daytona? Does Murphy have any poop on that?

DK

Go and look.

This isn't Murphy's overflow forum you know........

[Subaru_WRX_STi]

Originally Posted by dxk1

I have a question! What was Jean Todt doing at the latest round of Grand Am in Daytona? Does Murphy have any poop on that

maybe to just have a chat with NASCAR officials, and nothing to do with Grand Am

[mountainstar]

If grand am, dtm and super gt come together and that is a big IF, I really don't think that prototype racing is going to go away as many privateers prefer that sort of thing. And manufacturers like Ferrari and Porsche are not going to be interested in a DTM like series.

[TWK]

Originally Posted by Aysedasi

Go and look.

This isn't Murphy's overflow forum you know........

Good idea, since Murphy did deal with the reason for the visit of Todt's delegation of FIA dignitaries (he wasn't alone).

[KA]

Originally Posted by Speed-King

So what do we end up with, when we combine all of this?

Perhaps this:

A) A gradual decline of ACO-style prototype racing over the next few years as manufacturers get fed-up with their constant rules-tinkering. Two of the worst implosions of prototype racing in sportscar history happened after the respective powers that were, decided to limit engine sizes - right now I wouldn't bet against that happening again.

I was too young in the early 70's to take any notice of sportscar racing, but I remember the implosion after the move to 3.5 litres in 1989-92 very well, and I can't help thinking you've missed an important point- The problem wasn't the actual reduction in engine sizes, it was the fact that the change was to adopt pretty much F1 engine regulations, which made it almost impossible for privateers to compete

Originally Posted by Speed-King

B) An increasing attractiveness of DTM and series that ally itself with it, as so far isolated championships (some of them HIGHLY successfull already) begin to share an attractive, cost-effective and stable ruleset. This might even lead to manufacturers abandoning ACO-style racing in favor of the DTM-rules, as Mario Theissen hints at in the case of BMW. See also Murphy's comment about Audi's R18 possibly being a Le Mans only car. DTM-cars could then not only compete in series all around the world, but also in some of the most important events in the racing world - the 24 hours at the Nürburgring would probably be open to allowing DTM-cars once again, as would the 24 hours of Daytona and even Spa might be up for grabs if Ratel doesn't get GT2 back on track in FIA competition. The big one would of course be missing - or would it?

C) With DTM's silhouette formula on the rise and prototypes on the decline, one could even imagine a serious number of manufacturers involved in the silhouette series to push the ACO towards allowing their cars to race at Le Mans - for overall victories that is. Super GT and DTM-cars are only slightly slower than current LMP2-cars and with LMP2s becoming LMP1s and adding on some serious weight, the gap might decline even further, so we could end up in a situation like in the late 70s or 90s, when GT/Silhouette cars could go head to head, if on different strategies, with the traditional prototypes. And as we have seen back then the prototypes might even be reduced to a secondary role everywhere apart from Le Mans and perhaps even there.

The ACO abandoned the FIA to make sure that their big race doesn't get ruined by outside forces ever again, but it seems like they are perfectly capable of runining it themselves.

DTM, on the other hand, after years of underachieving seems to finally realize its whole potential and it could very well be that they are the big winners of the decline of the ACO's fortunes if they play their hand right.
What we could end up with is something very much like Group 5 - not only in regard to it being a silhouette-formula, but also as far as the near-merger of GT and touring cars is concerned. I don't know about anyone else, but I would really welcome that.

This could actually be a catastrophe. For me, touring cars and sports cars in Europe, apart from some occasional crossover (M3 etc), are two distinct things, and I really don't want to see them merged- I lost interest in DTM a few years ago precisely because it became a silhouette formula that had absolutely nothing to do with production-based touring cars.

Moving to a silhouette formula that would allow the traditional 'touring car' manufacturers to compete at Le Mans could drive away the very manufacturers who have supported sportscars in the past...
If you're Aston Martin, Porsche, Jaguar or Ferrari, would you really want to get involved knowing you risk being beaten by something that looked like a SEAT Leon, or Ford Mondeo, even if it was in silhouette form and built to the same ruleset as your car under the skin?
Le Mans with a grid full of carbon-chassised silhouette family saloon and hatchback lookalikes, no matter how fast they are? No thank you

[Speed-King]

I was too young in the early 70's to take any notice of sportscar racing, but I remember the implosion after the move to 3.5 litres in 1989-92 very well, and I can't help thinking you've missed an important point- The problem wasn't the actual reduction in engine sizes, it was the fact that the change was to adopt pretty much F1 engine regulations, which made it almost impossible for privateers to compete

But in now and then it was a case of ill-concived rules-changes. That the engine size would play a part in it in both cases (and also in the 70s) just adds a bit of tragic irony.

Moving to a silhouette formula that would allow the traditional 'touring car' manufacturers to compete at Le Mans could drive away the very manufacturers who have supported sportscars in the past...
If you're Aston Martin, Porsche, Jaguar or Ferrari, would you really want to get involved knowing you risk being beaten by something that looked like a SEAT Leon, or Ford Mondeo, even if it was in silhouette form and built to the same ruleset as your car under the skin?

These manufacturers have however mostly been playing in the lower classes whereas big manufacturers, that you'd also find in touring cars, where the once that mostly supported prototype racing in recent years, i.e. Audi, Pug, Acura, Cadillac, etc. And prototype racing is what I am mostly talking about. There is no reason why those manufacturers mentioned by you shouldn't keep on competing in the lower classes just as they are now.

Come to think about it, my scenario is somewhat like "LMP-Evo through the backdoor"

[Tim the Grey]

Oh, what was Bernie's Super Touring series to be called? I think there was only an Alfa built to the spec.

It all sounds familiar, TBH.

I would like LM24 to be the pinnacle of ALL sportscar racing series. And NOTHING to do with saloons, no matter how hyped up they may be! I suspect no DTM or GT500 car could finish a full 24 hour race, anyway. Look at teh attrition in the GT1 class this year?

[Dead-Eye]

Originally Posted by Tim the Grey

I would like LM24 to be the pinnacle of ALL sportscar racing series. And NOTHING to do with saloons, no matter how hyped up they may be! I suspect no DTM or GT500 car could finish a full 24 hour race, anyway. Look at teh attrition in the GT1 class this year?

DTM cars have finished and won the Nürburgring 24h. Sure, there were modifications, but nothing too major.

[I Rosputnik]

Still there's nothing wrong with Super GT or GT1 merely existing as long as they stay away from Le Mans? Sportscar racing shouldn't just be the Le Mans 24 and the three Le Mans series?

***

I agree that Saloons or Hatchbacks shouldn't be in GT racing. Doesn't mean they can't do Eudurance racing (Nurb 24, V8 supercars) but I'd rather keep them seperate from the GT's.

[NaBUru38]

Le Mans is for purpose-built sports prototypes and production-based sports cars. Let silhouettes run elsewhere.

Originally Posted by Dead-Eye

DTM cars have finished and won the Nürburgring 24h. Sure, there were modifications, but nothing too major.

But with what level of competition and at what pace? Four purspose-built Peugeots broke last month because they were pushed too hard.

[Speed-King]

But with what level of competition and at what pace? Four purspose-built Peugeots broke last month because they were pushed too hard.

6 full factory cars with pro-drivers (two each from BMW, Audi and Opel) and a number of factory supported Porsches going at it as hard as they could on the hardest and most demanding race track in the world - I really don't think reliability would be anymore of a problem than with the current crop of LMPs.

[6157]

That's it. We're done here. Pack it in. It's time to send prototypes on their way while there's still interest in GT racing before the ACO screws that up too.

Bring on the EVO rules, bring on GT 1 supercars for overall wins, bring on GT 3 and 4 for the lesser funded teams and small manufacturers.

If the ACO can't come up with a rules package 6 months before the year begins, they don't deserve to have top flight prototype racing.