Race / Fuel strategies?

[Kirk]

With Ferrari at bookends to start and with with the possibility of MS and TS starting from the pits, there should be some interesting race/fuel strategies. TSN's Donaldson already has stated that "his source" informed him that Renault are running heavy. Sauber seem light, at least Mazza does, Fisi maybe less so. Any surprises tomorrow? Will Ferrari pull another rabbit out of a hat and out think the competition? I have not read too much about fuel strategies but I imagine a 2 stopper would be the norm. Comments?

[Knowlesy]

Well I've just heard that the pit lane speed limit could be reduced, so Ferrari could change Schueys fuel level to suit any changes without too much of a penalty. Two places on the grid at most.

[Adam43]

It is thought some (inc. Renault) have already considered the pit-lane speed change and are heavy.

If it is changed (from 100kph to 80kph) it will amke the strategy a 2 stopper, rather than 2 or 3 stopper.

Apparently the pit lane is quite slippy and hence it would be safer for the mechanics when the driver is stopping for the pitstop.

If it does change to a two stopper what does that mean for the Michelin runners? I heard the soft tyres are marginal for a stint.

[Adam43]

Oh and Sato already has losts of fuel. He looks quick with it too and any change in the pit lane speed limit will only help...

[Kirk]

Funny, TSN announced the opposite Adam, that TS was running on fumes. (but if that were the case I expected him to be faster, so maybe you're right)

[Knowlesy]

If TS was running light it would be slightly silly, because he'd basically be in traffic all day if he did that. No sooner would he fight up the pack than he'd be dashing into the pits and having to do it all again....

No, he's more likely to be heavy.

[Kirk]

Unless BAR were going to start him from the pits, as was speculated. I should have added that.

[Adam43]

I expected Sato to be heavy. It is what they did to Button at Hockenhiem in the same situation. Generally it is the accepted thing to run more fuel if you are to be put back on the grid. Also Sato is not that far from Button's pace (especially in Q), so I'd expect it. ITV backed this up and BAR seem happy.

Still this could all be wrong

[BootsOntheSide]

BAR should start Sato from the pitlane full of fuel, considering that he didn't gain any real ground through qualifying. A one-stop strategy may be an option, depending on tyre wear.

It's a farce that they haven't decided on the pit-lane speed limit yet. Qualifying won't've given them any extra data over whether 100km/h is safe, so it's unfair on the teams to have to go into the race not knowing whether their strategies will be scuppered with them unable to correct them.

[Adam43]

They all know it might be changed? I don't think it is a big problem.

As for Sato, it depends how much fuel he has. He might grab a few places at the start (he won't if he has to wait for them to go past the pits).

[Mr V]

Taku should just follow Michael through the pack

[Kirk]

Slightly off topic, but did anyone notice that MS was struggling for grip even before the hot lap? Has MS said anything? I can't help but wonder if he is running a harder compound than the rest, which could lead to a one stopper?

[RT]

Originally posted by Kirk
Slightly off topic, but did anyone notice that MS was struggling for grip even before the hot lap? Has MS said anything? I can't help but wonder if he is running a harder compound than the rest, which could lead to a one stopper?

That's a good point. It would help if you're starting from the pitlane and are going to make up places as the others stop and refuel.

[Super Tourer]

I think ITV said he was on the soft tyre, Brundle said it looked like MS did a cautious out lap to preserve the tyres and it was probably too cautious, hence he arrived at the first corner with low rear tyre temperature, no grip and ...off.

[Adam43]

Originally posted by Kirk
Slightly off topic, but did anyone notice that MS was struggling for grip even before the hot lap? Has MS said anything? I can't help but wonder if he is running a harder compound than the rest, which could lead to a one stopper?

I think Michael was driving very slow on his out lap to save his tyres. This meant they weren't up to temperature and hence the grip wasn't there in the final corner of his out lap and the first corner of the quick lap. This seems very likely and Brundle pushed this as a theory.

In an interview on ITV he said it was strange, he didn't think he'd 'made a mistake', so I guess whatever he was surprised at the lack of grip compard with normal. A similar interview is here: http://www.formula1.com/race/news/2263/729.html

[Kirk]

Here's an interesting read from Pat Symonds who speculates some teams are contemplating a 3 stopper:
http://www.gp2004.com/news/news.php?...th=9&year=2004


"Strangely at this circuit, the difference between the first stop laps for a two or a three-stop strategy is minimal: the window for three stopping opens around lap 9 to lap 13, whereas one could two-stop from anywhere between laps 11 to 15. This means there is a fair overlap between the two options, and only once we have timed the first stops will the picture become clearer. Three stopping cars will be likely to make their second and third stops in the late 20s to early 30s and early 40s, while two stoppers would probably run to the latter half of the 30s. I think some teams may be undecided and have opted for a fuel load that will allow them to choose either option on their first trip to the pits"