Nationalities of notable drivers (96-05)

[Schummy]

Looking at the last decade (96-05) of F1 results, one can see some patterns in terms of nationalities.

(Another thing is what's the point of looking at this sort of strange statistics. Three weeks is a long time between GPs...)

I have counted how many notable drivers have had in the last 10 seasons. Somehow arbitrarily I have chosen the four first drivers in each season as notable drivers in terms of results.

A total of 14 drivers have risen as notable, with the following distribution according to nationality (column 1):

NAT               1     2     3    4      5     6     7  
GBR(DC,EI,DH,JB) 4/14 28.6% 11.5% 1.61  60.4   2.7%   37
GER(MS,HHF,RS)   3/14 21.4%  7.4% 1.04  82.4   1.3%   77
FIN(MH,KR)       2/14 14.3%  3.9% 0.55   5.22 10.5%    9.5
CAN(JV)          1/14  7.1%  1.2% 0.17  32.8   0.5%  193
ESP(FA)          1/14  7.1%  1.2% 0.17  40.3   0.4%  237
COL(JPM)         1/14  7.1%  1.2% 0.17  43.0   0.4%  253
FRA(JA)          1/14  7.1%  1.2% 0.17  60.7   0.3%  357
BRA(RB)          1/14  7.1%  1.2% 0.17 186     0.1% 1094

Rest of columns are:
(2): Percentage of nationality in notable drivers.
(3): Percentage significantly sure of nationalities. That is, taking in account hazard, luck, etc. For instance: it's significantly sure that 11.5% of notable drivers are british (in the circunstances of last decade).
(4): Number of notable drivers significantly sure, according to column 3. For instance, it's significantly sure that 1.61 notable drivers in a decade are british (in the circunstances of last decade).
(5): Population of countries in millions.
(6): Ratio (column 4) by (column 5). It shows what nationality has more "density" of notable drivers.
(7): Inverse of column 6. For example, 1 out of 37 millions of british people are "surely" notable F1 drivers (in a decade).

• Finland is the country with more notable drivers per capita, according to data from last ten years.
• In absolute terms, GBR has dominated the decade (but just one of them has got a title)
• With FIN and GBR, Germany is the only country with more than 1 notable driver.
• One of the most traditional F1 countries, Italy, doesn't have any notable driver! (Maybe Fisi fixes it this year...)
• Brazil, one of the most strong "nurseries" of F1 drivers in the world, has got just one notable driver in a decade.

[Knowlesy]

Surely those who have won races but not finished in the top four can be considered notable?

Poor old Johnny Herbert! etc....

Intriguing statistics however.

[Adam43]

Good stuff as usual.

I suspect if this was expanded to the begining of the WC then GBR would still be strong position with Brazil being placed higher.

[Schummy]

Herbert's wins happened in 1995, just out of the last decade! He was in 4th in the season, so he would count as "notable".

Ironically, I think his wins were flukes! So I'm not sure if I subjectively would count him as "notable". I agree with you, knowlesy, in the "poor" word, though. I have wondered many times what Johnny could have achieved without that nasty, almost terminal, accident in Paddock. To me he always was potentially one of the greatest talents, and I always was waiting for his ful, recovery... but it never really happened.

One never knows, however, and perhaps he had been another Magnussen. Sadly we were robbed of seeing it.

[Knowlesy]

He won one in 1999 as well. You don't fluke three wins! For example, his Nurburgring win was a result of not spinning off and correct strategy decision, IMO. Of course, there was an element of luck, as there is with every win in history.

Agree with you on the effect his injuries had on his career though....

[Dani Filth]

and Jean Alesi won in 95 too . 1 victory only
Berger won in 97 Hock . with Wurz also getting podiums in the period

[Knowlesy]

And Fisi has to be a notable in some way, although whether that is for the world record in head dropping or good performance is up for debate!

[ralf fan]

No but Fisi's head has dropped only in the past 2 years..... he was good in mediocre cars

[Knowlesy]

That's a fair point actually.....then again, he wasn't getting caned by his teammate!

[ralf fan]

I remember most of us egging top teams to sign Fisi after his brilliant 04 in the Sauber....OT i know

[Schummy]

If we had counted every driver in F1 (almost any of them can arguably be considered "notable" in comparison with other series) Italy and France would have a lot of "points". I have been amazed along the years by the relative lack of ultimate success by drivers of those countries.

ITA and FRA (excepting the great Prost, and 50s italians) have been very thin in terms of titles or even multiple GP wins. With decades of data one have to wonder what is the reason for this pattern.

Mega champions have a partial answer to this: many titles have been taken away by single gifted individuals who are born in any country. "Normallly talented" champions who can be nursed by a good schedule of lower formulae, have won a limited number of titles... when no any megachampion is present or in a decent car.

In the last decade 96-05 at least 5 WDCs have been taken away just by a single "mutant" driver (or maybe 6 if we in the future count Alonso as another one). In the former decade (85-95) eight out of 10 titles were taken by exceptional people who are not explained in terms of national nursery of drivers along their careers.

I don't know. Maybe there is something that explain this relative lack of success of some major motorsport nationalities, but I don't know what it is.

[Jordi]

Originally Posted by Schummy

[*]Finland is the country with more notable drivers per capita, according to data from last ten years.

When you think of names like Häkkinen, Räikkönen, Kovalainen, Mäkinen, Grönholm, Kankkunen, Rovanperä... or older like Rosberg, Alén, Salonen, Mikkola, Toivonen or Vatanen... you see why.

It's quite hard to disagree with that statement!

[rcarr]

AH HAH! But over all in 56 years of competiton we have had 5 Scottish Championships! There are only 5 million of us! 1 per 1 million persons!
Scotland alone should be up there!

Finland have had 2 decent drivers but Kimi has not looked as though he would win the chapionship but Mika beats him hands down in that statistic!

[Knowlesy]

Scotland is excluded.

Any of your champions shall be classed as Brits though.....

But the riff raff is Scottish.

[Dutton]

Aye, quite...

...just make sure your riff-raff doesn't suddenly discover an affinity for Scotland after the discovery of a long-lost Scottish step-grandmother 2nd removed (or something, .

[Jordi]

Originally Posted by rcarr

AH HAH! But over all in 56 years of competiton we have had 5 Scottish Championships! There are only 5 million of us! 1 per 1 million persons!
Scotland alone should be up there!

Finland have had 2 decent drivers but Kimi has not looked as though he would win the chapionship but Mika beats him hands down in that statistic!

There's the same amount of Scot and Finn champs.. Nevermind the number of titles, it's the people that matter. Do Germany have 7 titles or indeed a very great driver (but just one)?

[Mekola]

Originally Posted by Jordi

When you think of names like Häkkinen, Räikkönen, Kovalainen, Mäkinen, Grönholm, Kankkunen, Rovanperä... or older like Rosberg, Alén, Salonen, Mikkola, Toivonen or Vatanen... you see why.

It's quite hard to disagree with that statement!

If Argentina had a more decent motorsport politics for the drivers who want to racing abroad, then you would hear more consistently names like Larrauri, Fontana, Smith, Basso, López, Guerrieri, Álvarez, Scalbi (on formula cars) and Recalde, Pozzo, Ligato, Beltrán, Pérez Companc (on rallying).
Turismo Carretera, until 1970s, was one of the best series which had an excellent rally philosophy in their racing structure. Now TC is racing on track circuits, but their experience remained in the Rally Nacional. With our rally tradition, we should be the "Finland of South America"...

[Jordi]

It's the same in Spain. Now drivers like Garc�*a, Villa, Vallés have perhaps more opportunities, or have it easier than Jordi Gené o de la Rosa did, and we don't know how would the older Gené have fared in F1...

[BSchneiderFan]

Jordi Gene hasn't really sparkled in the WTCC, though; Rydell has fully had the measure of him (though I think Rydell could probably have cut the mustard in F1, but that's another story...) and Terting has had an edge over him at times.

[EERO]

Schummy, interesting statistics but your findings are actually the result of a very small sample of the overall populations of each Country, as you point out with the total numbers of Italian and French drivers in F1 and their relative lack of success. I always found it interesting that until Schumacher appeared, that Germany had not been well represented with historical success and yet anomolies such as Finland and Scotland share eight WDC's between them.
When you consider that currently there are approximately 25 drivers each season who contest an F1 race out of a world population of 4 Billion.... well statistics are bound to be skewed.

I appreciate the exercise, but I think it is as much proof of how a small sample of a rarified population over a relatively short time period can produce interesting though ultimately meaningless results.

[mbathshah]

Why not do the same analysis since the first GP at silverstone in the 1950's? That would actually reflect the real results of your analysis.

[Schummy]

I would need more rainy days to try it!