Season evolution (update after Hungary)

[Schummy]

I have actualized the evo graphs taking in account Hungary results.

http://summer.phpwebhosting.com/~sta...Statistics2003

Not much to be added to the original thread, but I've updated the forecasts.

The "random effects" (set of circunstances that influences results: tyres, qualify, errors, etc) were against MS in this fourth last GP: Juan Pablo is now the "expected leader" and Kimi is virtually tied to MS in expectations.

Average points per GP predicted for future GPs (it also means "current form" for main drivers)

JPM 6.9
KR 4.7
FA 4.6
MS 4.4
RS 4.3
DC 3.8
RB 3.2

JPM goes on as leader in momentum, and the rest are grouped closely. As he and Michael are almost tied, it means JPM is now the favourite for the title.

Adding those "predicted" points per GP for the last 3 GPs and adding all it to the current points for each driver, we get a posible WC final classification:

JPM 91.8
MS 85.4
KR 84.2
RS 71.2
FA 67.8
RB 58.7
DC 56.5

The ordering is more or less equal than before Hungary but Alonso has overtaken Rubens and menacesd Ralf for fourth final position. The most important thing, however, is now JPM is the favourite for the title with a little advantage over MS and KR. Also, another change is Kimi is now virtaually tied to Michael in predicted expectations.

Although all seven drivers are mathematically title contenders, above calculations shows clearly that title race is a three drivers affair.

About teams, current points per GP "predictions" are:

Williams 11.3
McLaren 8.6
Ferrari 7.7

Ferrari is now the third team, but very close to McLaren, anyway.

And "predicted" final posititions in WTC are:

Williams 163.0
Ferrari 144.0
McLaren 140.7

Williams is the clear favourite, and Ferrari will have to fight with Mac for the second position.

Let's see how all this develops in the "real" exciting WC. The propect to have a title decided in the last race (if Monza and Indy races allow it) and the possibility of a new WDC is interesting.

[Schummy]

Just to add some remarks.

It is interesting to see in drivers evo's graph that 4 drivers have been in the top form (or "momentum") in this season:

KR: from AUS to SMA (4 GPs)
MS: from SPA (debut of F2003GA) to EUR (5 Gps)
RS: Just in FRA
JPM: From GBR to HUN (3 GPs)

For teams:

McLaren: first 4 GPs
Ferrari: next 4 GPs
Willimas: last 5 GPs (so far)

[Adam43]

Another great set of stats.

Always nice to brush up on my statistics - it is a couple of years since I had to do that much pure stats.

Great site too, I recommend others to visit it to see the 'evo' graphs etc...