Forecasting points at the end of the season

[Schummy]

Knowing current point scores and average per GP, we can make some forecasting about how approximately the season will end.

Just by now no significant trends are apparent respecting teams improving or declining (there are some indications but I don't see them significant). So it is a easy calculation to do: there are 8 GPs until the end, multiplying by average points per race we will get an approx to the amount of points a driver could add to his current total.

Driver Current Average Forecast
MS       90      9.0    162.0  
RB       68      6.8    122.4  
JB       48      4.8     86.4  
JT       46      4.6     82.8  
FA       33      3.3     59.4  
JPM      25      2.5     45.0  
TS       14      1.4     25.2

Obviously no surprises because we are just extrapolating current points, but one can see the relative expected difference between them.

Basically, positions are almost decided, except third position for Button or Trulli. Perhaps FA, JPM and TS can do some heroic perfomances and do some permutations between them.

My *subjective* guess for WDC is MS - RB - JB - JT - FA - JPM - TS, i.e. I think (sadly) possibly there will not be changes, but, as said formerly, two or three positions still can change.

Frankly speaking I don't see any more changes as likely, except for wisful-thinking (that I have, BTW )

All this could change in some measure if any significant trend arises (for example Ferrari declining, Williams recovering, etc). But with just 8 GP ahead time is runing short even for deciding 2nd position in WDC.

In terms of teams WC, the three first positions are pretty well delimited. The only possibility is if BAR can improve even more (e.g. improving reliability in Sato's car) or Renault going through a dip in perfomance, i.e. some new trend.

Ferrari 284.4
Renault 142.2
BAR 111.6

Williams is too far and moreover they now have problems with the second seat. McLaren can and must improve but they are massively short in points.

[Dani Filth]

alonso i think will gain a few more points than in the first half of the season . and could challenge for 3rd

[Super Tourer]

Be interesting to see how a moving average alters the figures from a fixed average, as that would be more weighted to recent performance, and take account of car improvements, etc.

[Schummy]

I have explored exponentially moving averages (more adequate for this particular forecast kind of things) but I've found the optimal one is just the "flat" exponential, i.e. the simple running average that I have used here.

Anyway, as GPs pass by, I'll retry just in case a "trend" has developed. Without trend it is not good to use moving average.

Just to see how it would be weighting a bit more the last races than the earlier ones, this is the data supposing each GP counts 20% less each time a new GP happens. This way one try to reflect any trend is developing in the last races.

Driver Current Average Forecast
MS       90     9.08   162.66
RB       68     6.96   123.70
JT       46     4.63    83.03
JB       48     4.32    82.56
FA       33     3.31    59.47
JPM      25     1.57    37.57
TS       14     1.56    26.46

There is not almost any change. Trulli is a bit ahead of Button, but virtually they are still tied. Sato is a bit closer to Montoya.

Average is now a "trend" average, and reflect who is currently in form. I have chosen the amount 20% because I've seen this is a sort of optimal when a trend develops.

Anyway, as I said formerly, right now the simple average seems to be the best for current season (so far).

About the "wisful-thinking" mode (it is one of the fun part of following a sport), I also hope-expect-wish Alonso is going to gain more points. I'd like to see Sato has better luck and do more good races. Kimi, Monty,... LOL, so many people,I hope they do a better second part of the season.

I respect Barrichello as a driver (and as a person) but, for the good of F1, I would like to see some other to end 2nd in WDC. Again, I'm afraid Ferrari is heading to an one-two in the championship.

[Super Tourer]

I agree, looks like another whitewash.

Interesting figures - thanks.