FIM Winners Game ---> Jerez

[Schummy]

We begin the Summer Cup 2006!

This year I'm well prepared to meet the mighty Blue. This is going to be MY YEAR (famous Coulthard "evergreen" words).

Prizes in every category:
First position: a dinner with second last Briatore's girlfriend.
Second position: a breakfast with Craig Antill.
Third position: a lunch with Dani "close mouth" Pedrosa
(So 3rd is the cursed position this year)

I'm going to basically copy&paste last year's rules, so if some names are outdated, sorry for that (anyway I don't know much about this season's lineup )

Rules are:

----------------------------------------------

Object of the game:
You have to guess the winner. You can put one, two, three or four riders as winners.

Scoring:
If you put one rider and he wins, you get 4 points.
If you put two two riders and one of them wins, you get 3 points.
In case you put 3 names and one wins, you get 2.5 points.
If you choose to put four names, and one of them wins, you get 2 points.
If you fail to guess the winner, you get 0 points.

Time limit:
Guesses can be done until one hour before the first race (125, 250 or MotoGP, whatever it is). Usually it will be one hour before 125 race.

Remarks:
Every FIM GP three guesses can be entered: for 125cc, 250cc and MotoGP. Those are three differents games, so you can enter only one or two categories if you like.

Appart from the three classifications (125, 250 and MotoGP), I'll put a "global" classification adding all of them.

The key of the game is to predict the winner putting the least possible numbers of candidates. But if you put too few riders, you risk getting 0 points!

Example:

Let's suppose in Jerez you put the following guesses and the real winners are Simoncelli, Angelis and Rossi:
125 = Simoncelli, P.Nieto, Lai (you get 2.5 points for Simoncelli)
250 = Porto, Dovizioso (you get 0 point, you failed)
MotoGP = Gibernau, Rossi (you get 3 points for Rossi)

Good fun for everybody!

[Schummy]

Please be very careful about the different timezones and the delayed broadcast of some TVs, in order to get right the deadline.

Last year we lost many guesses because of that (my case included! ).

Another important thing for (eventual) new players is we do two "Cups" per season (Summer Cup, Autumn Cup) covering each half of the season.

(I think I don't forget nothing significant, please say me if you remember something more about last year rules)

[asha]

last year I opted to put all my eggs in one basket and only making one guess per race.
Hence, i dropped outta the running early and lost interest.
Not this year.. i'm gonna put 2 names per race.. thats my stratagy.. *shhh...*


Trivia: Rossi has one for first race of teh year for the last 5 years. Take that to knowledge to your doom!

[SALEEN S7R]

Schummy, out of interest what do you think of modifying the championship slightly so that you also have to guess the fastest lap for each category? Guessing the fastest lap for each class could be worth 1 point extra, or even 0.5 points extra. Im just thinking that it could make things a bit more open than last year. The differnce with guessing the fastest lap however would be to limit the predictions to 1 per class.

[Schummy]

It is interesting but let's think about it in the Autumn cup. Maybe we can think about another little game with those elements (fastest laps, pole,...), perhaps for MotoGP or perhaps for SBK.

Frankly, I have landed this season in bike racing very late and I'm still a bit "rusty". I don't know the calendars for FIM and SBK, teams, etc. I'm a disaster reincarnated in a human form!

Let's see how goes the Classic FWG and then we can test FWG+ or even FWG++ (oriented to objects).

[bestfit]

125 - Bautista / Kallio
250 - Lorenzo / Dovizioso
MotoGP - Gibernau

[SALEEN S7R]

125: Pasini, Kallio, Bautista
250: Lorenzo
Moto GP: Capirossi, Gibernau

[Bleu]

125: Bautista, Faubel, Pasini
250: Barbera, Lorenzo
MotoGP: Capirossi, Gibernau

[Knowlesy]

125: Kallio
250: Davizioso
MotoGP: Capirossi, Gibernau

[Pondo]

125: Pasini/Kallio
250: Lorenzo/De Angelis
MotoGP: Capirossi/Rossi

[marcus]

125cc Pasini , Faubel

250cc De Angelis , Dovizioso

Moto GP Hayden , Pedrosa

[Hazza]

MotoGP: Rossi, Hayden, Pedrosa, Capirossi
250: Lorenzo, Barbera
125: Pasini, Bautista

[Schummy]

My typical conservative guess:

125cc: Pasini, Bautista, Simon, Faubel
250cc: Barbera, Lorenzo
MotoGP: Gibernau, Capirossi, Rossi

Now to make a laugh of myself after the race, here are the "reasons" I have to do those guesses (and get it horribly wrong):

Spanish riders are so strong in Jerez, specially in the small category, but obviously poleman has to have a chance. I think Kallio/Talm are going to be passed here by Simon. Derbi is my only doubt, if the bike is the best Pezek has a chance... if people doesn't shot a fireworks to him! From gold years of Nieto, Aspar, Tormo, 125cc is almost a religion for spanish aficionados in Jerez.

Barbera and Lorenzo look strong this year. And spanish riders are very motivated in Jerez (their Holy Track), so I don't see Takahashi or Aoyama winning, except if their Hondas are seriously faster in race conditions. Angelis is not a winner (IMO) but I know many people here is fan of West, certainly here he has some opportunity (specially if "Harsh" Lorenzo crash with Barbera )

Sete is my n.1 fav... if he doesn't crash. He "learnt" how to crash last year and if you learn to crash it is not easy to become no-crashy. I cannot discount Rossi at all, I am not even sure about if he has done training session absolutely flat out... I'd like to see Capi winning (and his wife ), and I'd love to see Nakano/Kawa taking the win!

[Schummy]

And now, on BOTTY's behalf:

125cc: Luthi, Pasini, Kallio
250cc: Lorenzo, Dovizioso
MotoGP: Rossi, Capirossi

BOTTY's procedure, as explained last year, is: he/she/it guesses WC leader (this round, best of last year), poleman, and those with more wins in the season (this round, in the last season of those currently in the category). In case there are more than 4 riders, the rest are dropped from the "more wins" category.

Kallio was the leader in wins last year (with Luthi). Dovi is the best of last year's WC in 250cc (Pedrosa and Stoner are out). Rossi is the best of last year (lol, who needed this datum?)

BOTTY is a fierce competitor and probably will challenge for podiums in the Summer Cup!

COPYCAT is another bot that I eventually put here in some rounds. But it is tiresome to calculate so... I'll let it out by now.

[Schummy]

Well, finally I have done some calculations to put the bot COPYCAT this round.

(I *would* have to recalculate if there are guesses after this post, but I'm too lazy, possibly)

Resume of guesses:

Nominations so far:

125:
Pasini 7
Kallio 5
Bautista 5
Faubel 3
Luthi 1
JSimon 1

250cc:
Lorenzo 7
Dovi 4
Barbera 3
Angelis 2

MotoGP:
Capi 7
Gibernau 5
Rossi 4
Hayden 2
Pedrosa 2

If we were good forecasters, probability of winning would be:

125cc:
Pasini 31%
Kallio 30%
Bautista 21%
Faubel 12%
Luthi 4%
Jsimon 3%

250cc:
Lorenzo 44%
Dovi 28%
Barbera 17%
Angelis 11%

MotoGP:
Capi 34%
Gibernau 31%
Rossi 18%
Hayden 8%
Pedrosa 8%

The easiest race to predict would be 250cc with Lorenzo and Dovi as guess.

Ufff! All those calculations (and more) are needed to put the automatic guess of bot COPYCAT. Finally COPYCAT guesses are:

125cc: Pasini, Kallio, Bautista
250cc: Lorenzo, Dovizioso
MotoGP: Capirossi, Gibernau

(COPYCAT expects to get 3.97 points, according to his(?) positronic circuits, but he(?) is usually optimist with himself)

[Dani Filth]

125 Pasini/Simon
250 Barbera/Lorenzo
MotoGP Rossi/Capirossi

[asha]

125: Pasini, Bautista
250cc: Barbera, Lorenzo
MotoGP: Gibernau, Capirossi

[asha]

w00t Bautista!!!!! You get a chickywing for being such a good kitty!

[Knowlesy]

My high risk strategy has failed.

Next time, I'm picking ten riders per category.

[Schummy]

But pick the right ten riders - says Schummy, looking maliciously to other person in the room.

[Schummy]

My multi-rider strategy is very safe: it says safely that I'm not going to win at this rate.

I'll calculate the points and I will put the results soon (I think).

[Schummy]

Nice races. Again we have FIM GPs! These and WTCC touring car races (it begins next week) are my favourite motorsport events, in terms of entertainment.

This round has been easy, two races won by the arguably favourites and 125cc won by a not so unreasonable rider. So it has been an opportunity to amass points (sorry marcus).

SALEEN has won globally with a very good 2.5+4+3 points. He risked with Lorenzo and the little hard Jorge delivered. Congratulations!

Obviously he won in 250cc category. The other two categs were more shared: in 125cc bestfit, Hazza and asha won and in MotoGP a lot of people got 3 points!

Special mention to asha, second this round. This has been the round of felines: tiger asha got 2nd position, his cat "Alvaro" won 125cc and Tiger Capirossi won the bigger one.

People who risked, had a bad day, being so "predictable" these winners we have had. Other round will arrive where the gamblers will get more reward.

125cc:
bestfit 3
Hazza   3
asha    3
SALEEN  2.5
Bleu    2.5
COPYCAT 2.5
Schummy 2

250cc:
SALEEN  4
bestfit 3
Bleu    3
Pondo   3
Hazza   3
Schummy 3
BOTTY   3
Dani    3
asha    3
COPYCAT 2.5

MotoGP:
SALEEN   3
Bleu     3
knowlesy 3
Pondo    3
BOTTY    3
Dani     3
asha     3
Schummy  2.5
COPYCAT  2.5
Hazza    2

Total:
SALEEN   9.5
asha     9
Bleu     8.5
Hazza    8
Schummy  7.5
COPYCAT  7.5
Pondo    6
BOTTY    6
Dani     6
bestfit  6
knowlesy 3
marcus   0 (but his icon is the cutest)

Just for the record, after Dani and asha guesses, I updated (and fixed a little error I had done) the guesses for COPYCAT. They were:

125cc: Pasini, Kallio, Bautista
250cc: Lorenzo, Barbera, Dovi
MotoGP: Capirossi, Gibernau, Rossi

[Knowlesy]

Thank you Marcus. It's very kind of you.

3 points....sheesh.....

[SALEEN S7R]

A decent start to the season for me, long may it continue!

[beau1]

guess who forgot